February Lean Hog Price Forecast – 11/14/2023

The USDA forecast the per capita domestic pork supply for the first quarter of 2024 at 16.7 pounds, down 2% from a year ago. USDA expects first quarter pork production to be equal to a year ago, but a modest increase in pork exports and a increase in population will result in a drop in domestic per capita pork supply.

We have developed two equations to forecast  the price range for February lean hogs based on the first quarter domestic pork supply. The accompanying table displays the forecast high and low based on variations in per capita supply relative to USDA’s November 2023 supply projection. For example a 2% increase from the USDA forecast would result in a price range forecast of  $81 for a high and $63 for a low per hundredweight.