February Lean Hog Price Forecast – 09/21/2023

USDA expects a significant cut in US pork supply during the first quarter of 2024. We have correlated the February lean hog price range with January March per capita pork supply over the last 30+ years. Plugging in the USDA’s pork supply forecast would suggest an autumn winter price range of $70 to $90  based on the February 2024 lean hog contract.   

The September Hogs and pigs report, scheduled for release September  28, 2023, will provide fresh data which could prompt USDA to revise the US pork supply outlook.