Economic value Study Central Illinois Soybeans – 01/12/2021

The WOAB forecast the US soybean carryout for the 2020/2021 season at 140 million bushels or 3% of crop year usage which would be among the tightest seasons in the last 50 years. Our long term price model suggests a winter spring high for Central Illinois soybeans at near $18 per bushel. We have plotted our projected high on a scatter study of the recent stocks – price relationship.

Soybean prices are likely to be volatile in the next six months as the stocks price curve is very sharp and small changes in the expected carryout can have a big impact on price. Also the austral soybean season is still underway and weather can still have a major impact on the Southern Hemisphere soybean crops.