Economic Value Midwest Corn – 03/10/2021

Published by David Tedrow on

The USDA estimated the 2021 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushes which would be the smallest ending corn carryout since 2014. We have scattered the spring high for Chicago cash corn as a function of the ratio of corn carryout stocks to crop year food-industrial plus exports. We found the ratio excluding feed usage provides a tighter fit with price. Feed usage remains implicit in the carryover corn stocks data.

The recent high of $5.53 for Central Illinois corn falls close to the regression line based on current USDA corn crop year supply/usage forecasts. Additional upside corn price potential might require tighter US corn supply usage expectations than presently implied by USDA. 

Categories: Grains

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