December Lean Hogs Trading near the Midpoint of the Forecast Range
USDA made only minor changes to the US pork supply/usage balance this month, likely preferring to await the September Hogs & Pigs report (scheduled for release September 26, 2024) to make significant changes if needed.
December 2024 lean hog futures have staged a significant price rally since establishing a low last summer. Our December lean hog price model projects a $65 to $78 autumn price range assuming USDA’s September pork supply usage balance.
| US Pork Supply /Usage (Million Pounds) | 2024/2023 | 2025/2024 | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 455 | ||
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 28068 | 28,520 | 3% | 2% |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1188 | 1,205 | 4% | 1% |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7182 | 7,365 | 5% | 3% |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 455 | 465 | -3% | 2% |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 50.9 | 51.2 | 1% | 1% |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $59 | $58 | -5% | -2% |
| USDA September 2024 Data | |||||||
| December Lean hog Futures Mid September to December Price Range | |||||||
| High | $86 | $90 | $79 | $78 | |||
| Low | $70 | $73 | $65 | $65 | |||
Price range for 2024 our projection.