December Corn Summer-Fall high – 06/15/2022

Historically, December corn summer-harvest values have been correlated with the US corn carryout as forecast by USDA in early harvest. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast the 2022/2023 (new crop) carryout at 1.4 billion bushels, or 15% of crop year usage excluding feed/residual disappearance. December corn is presently trading on the high side of the scatter  study depicting December corn values as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of usage.

The most critical period in the corn production cycle, pollination which occurs in late June through mid July, is approaching and traders’ expectation for the 2022 US corn crop could change radically from USDA’s June forecast. History suggests a smaller crop than the June projection of 14.5 billion bushels is needed to push December corn over $8.00.