December 1 Wheat Stocks Estimate – 12/23/2022
We estimate December 1, 2022 US wheat stocks at 1.3 billion bushels compared to 1.4 billion bushels a year ago and the smallest stocks this century . The major unknown in the second quarter US wheat supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of 50 million bushels.to the second quarter. Statistical discrepancy is a significant factor in quarterly wheat data and causes sometimes negative figure for September/November feed residual data.
The December Grain Stocks Report is scheduled for release January 12, 2023.
| US Wheat balance Million bushels Sep/Nov | |||||
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/2023 | |
| Beg Stocks | 2,390 | 2,346 | 2,158 | 1,774 | 1,776 |
| Imports | 31 | 22 | 28 | 24 | 25 |
| Supply | 2,421 | 2,368 | 2,186 | 1,797 | 1,801 |
| Food use | 247 | 247 | 249 | 249 | 250 |
| seed | 38 | 10 | 246 | 187 | 481 |
| Feed/Residual | -75 | 10 | -46 | -56 | -5 |
| Total Dom | 209 | 294 | 246 | 232 | 286 |
| Exports | 203 | 233 | 237 | 187 | 195 |
| Total Use | 412 | 527 | 483 | 419 | 481 |
| Dec 1 stocks | 2,009 | 1,841 | 1,703 | 1,378 | 1,295 |
| Crop year 2022/23 partially estimated by LACO. | |||||