December 1 Corn Stocks Estimate – 12/22/2022
We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of 5.3 billion bushels.to the first quarter. Since USDA is conservative on feed usage compared to our feed usage model, we would not be surprised if December stocks don’t come in below our 12.1 billion bushel estimate.
The December Grain Stocks Report is scheduled for release January 12, 2023.
| US Corn Balance Million Bushels | ||||
| Sep-Nov | ||||
| 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | |
| Beg Stocks | 2,221 | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 |
| Production | 13,620 | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,930 |
| Imports |
18
|
6
|
7
|
5 |
| Supply | 15,859 | 16,037 | 16,315 | 16,315 |
| FSI | 1,628 | 1,612 | 1,690 | 1,600 |
| Feed Residual | 2,632 | 2,682 | 2,553 | 2,300 |
| Exports | 271 | 449 | 431 | 275 |
| Usage | 4,531 | 4,743 | 4,673 | 4,175 |
| Dec 1 Stocks | 11,327 | 11,294 | 11,642 | 12,140 |
| Price | $3.76 | $3.63 | $5.19 | $6.75 |
| US Data Crop year 2022/23 Our Estimate | ||||