Corn Market Update

The corm market has been balanced between reduced supplies and weak export demand. The USDA estimates the U.S. corn carryout this fall at 1.9 billion bushels which is down from a year ago but not tight by historical standards. Foreign corn buyers have chosen to reduce burdensome stocks this season and cut U.S. corn imports.

The accompanying scatter studies displays the highs and lows for cash corn as a function of a model forecast. The model uses US corn carryout stocks and corn used in fuel production as independent variables.

 Corn is presently trading under economic value, but only marginally and within the standard errors of the studies. Barring a major increase in corn export demand we export corn prices to mark time until the new crop outlook provides direction in the early summer.