Corn Crop Comments Mid July – 07/12/2021

USDA rated 65% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on July 11, 2021 which is exactly equal to the rating in the previous 30 years for the date. USDA put silkinking at 26% which leaves about three quarters of the crop still vulnerable to heat damage. There will be warmer weather over the next few days, but not the near 100 temps (basis St louis) needed to reduce corn yields significantly. 

Our corn yield model forecasts the national average yield at 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s 179 bushels published in the July 2021 WAOB report.   The model explains 91% of the US corn yield variation ( in the years 1988 through 2000) with a standard error of 7 bushels per harvested acre.The USDA forecast is well within the standard error of the model.