Corn Area in 2020

The USDA is scheduled to release the first corn area estimate of the season based on March intentions on March 31, 2020. We have developed a model which uses harvest to late winter price for Midwest corn and soybeans plus acreage the previous year to forecast the March intentions for corn acreage. The study forecast for 2020 is 90 million acres about the same as was actually planted in 2019, but down from 2019 March intentions of 93 million aces.

A wet spring  caused the area planted in 2019 to fall well short of intentions. We have plotted March intentions compared to the June estimate. In most years the two data sets mirror each other. Exceptions include the wet springs of 1993, 1995  2019 and the PIK year of 1983. The USDA further reduced corn planted area estimates in the August 2019 and the 2019 Final crop report.