Comparing weekly corn crop data to the August estimate. – 7/31/2023
USDA reported 55% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of the end of July. Based on historical data the USDA’s weekly report suggests an August US average corn yield of 178 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July trendline forecast of 182 bushels. We have summarized the data in the accompanying table and chart. The USDA has scheduled the release of the August crop report for 8/11/2023
| US Corn Data Million Bushels/Acres | ||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 Est | |
| Planted | 90,652 | 93,357 | 88,579 | 94,096 |
| Harvested | 82,313 | 85,318 | 79,207 | 86,322 |
| % Harvested | 90.8% | 91.4% | 89.4% | 91.7% |
| Yield Bu./Ac. | 171 | 177 | 173 | 178 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,730 | 15,365 |
| 2023 Forecast Based on USDA area data area available 8/1/2023. | ||||
| & Yield model August est. as a function of crop index 7/30/2023 | ||||
| Crop Index | Trend | Intercept | ||
| 0.64 | 2.13 | -4175 | ||
| R2 | Std Error | |||
| 97% | 5 | |||
| 12 | 32 | T Stats | ||
| Yield calculation 55*.64+2023*2.13-4,175 | ||||
| Based on data 1985 – 2023 | ||||