Comments on USDA Beef Supply/Demand Projections – 2/26/2024
This month the USDA forecast US beef production at 26 billion pounds, down 3 percent on a year over year basis. The negative production estimate reflects a 2% reduction in the US cattle inventory on January 1, 2024. The 2024 January cattle census was the smallest in more than 50 years. The USDA’ 2024 US beef production estimate assumes a small decrease in beef production per cattle in the herd on January 1. This century has seen considerable progress in beef production efficiency. The slight decline assumed by USDA for 2024 reflects the increased holding of heifers for herd expansion.
The USDA’s 2024 US beef supply/demand balance assumes a major increase in beef imports to supplement domestic supplies. In order for this to happen prices of beef in the US market must stay attractive compared to other destinations which provides a supporting force in the fed cattle Futures market.
| US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) | |||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 716 | 676 | 723 | 644 | |
| Production | 28,007 | 28,358 | 27,032 | 26,253 | -3% |
| Imports | 3,375 | 3,391 | 3,727 | 4,125 | 11% |
| Exports | 3,447 | 3,536 | 3,038 | 2,785 | -8% |
| End Stocks | 676 | 723 | 644 | 615 | -5% |
| Per Cap Use | 58.9 | 59.1 | 58.0 | 57.4 | -1% |
| USDA February 2024 Data | |||||