Comments on 2024 & 2025 Beef Outlook – 4/4/2024
USDA expects US beef production to drop 2% year over year in 2025 after a similar reduction in 2024. US per capita beef supply in 2025 could decline 4% compared to 2024 which USDA has forecast down 1% from 2023 US beef supply.
| US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) | ||||||
| Annual | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % 2024 Vs 2023 | % 2022 Vs 2024 |
| Beg Stock | 676 | 723 | 638 | 615 | ||
| Production | 28,358 | 27,032 | 26,393 | 25784 | -2% | -2% |
| Imports | 3,391 | 3,727 | 4,175 | 3768 | 12% | -10% |
| Exports | 3,536 | 3,038 | 2,785 | 2707 | -8% | -3% |
| End Stocks | 723 | 638 | 615 | 547 | -4% | -11% |
| Per Cap Use | 59.1 | 58.1 | 57.8 | 55.4 | -1% | -4% |
| Finish Cattle $ | $144 | $176 | $183 | $181 | 4% | -1% |
| USDA March 2024 Data | ||||||
We have included a scatter study plotting annual Midwest steer prices as a function of the US per capita beef supply. The price variable has been adjusted to the 2024 price level using the GNP price deflator. In the scatter study 2023 and 2024 are nearly coincident points. The USDA’s 2025 price projection would be under the 2023 & 2024 points, but in line with earlier historical data.
USDA expects a sharp increase in the beef cow herd over the next 5 years. The need to hold heifers for herd replacement will likely continue to be a major price supporting force in the live cattle market through 2025. We expect live steer futures quotes to exceed $200/Cwt. (unadjusted data), at least at times. in the next two years.