Chinese Soybean Import Demand – 09/13/2020
China has gotten off to a fast start purchasing 15 million tonnes of soybeans for 2020/21 delivery compared to less than a million tonnes at the same time last year. China’s soybean imports are a linear function of soybean meal usage as the variation of use of domestic soybean meal and substitute protein is minor compared to soybean meal produced from imported soybeans.
The USDA has estimated Chinese 2020/21 soybean meal usage at 77 million tonnes compared to 71 million tonnes a year ago and soybean imports at 99 million tonnes up from 98 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier. We believe a more optimistic soybean crop year import total is warranted given the robust meal demand outlook.
USDA September estimate marked in red.