Chicago Soft Red Wheat – Timing of a Low

Published by David Tedrow on

Cash soft red wheat  established a row crop harvest low of $5.41 on September 19/ 2024. Historically, soft red wheat has made a low price in the Autumn  even in years with burdensome US wheat stocks. We have ranked the study years by the US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio with feed usage removed. The fall low provides a useful parameter when evaluating the lows for the Chicago March  wheat contract. On October 28, 2024 Chicago March wheat was trading at $5.85 or 44 cents over the current autumn low which could be considered the objective for short March wheat positions. 

Year
Central Ill. Cash Soft Red Wheat Timing of a Low
US Wheat Carryout
End
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
% Usage ex Feed
2009
$3.06
16%
2004
$3.16
18%
2008
$7.12
20%
1997
$3.18
22%
1998
22%
1993
$3.22
24%
1996
$4.35
25%
1994
$2.83
27%
2007
$3.10
29%
2006
$2.72
30%
2015
$4.39
30%
1995
32%
1999
$2.02
32%
2005
$2.64
32%
2010
$3.45
33%
2003
34%
2014
$5.62
34%
2023
34%
2024
$4.87
34%
2016
$4.33
37%
2011
$5.71
40%
2000
$1.69
41%
2013
41%
2024
44%
2002
$2.46
45%
2012
$5.44
47%
2017
$3.53
47%
2019
47%
2022
$6.74
48%
2020
$4.38
49%
2001
$2.02
50%
2021
$5.13
53%
2018
$3.91
58%
Years Ranked by the US wheat carryout to usage (ex feed) ratio

 

 

Categories: Grains