Chicago Soft Red Wheat – Timing of a Low
Cash soft red wheat established a row crop harvest low of $5.41 on September 19/ 2024. Historically, soft red wheat has made a low price in the Autumn even in years with burdensome US wheat stocks. We have ranked the study years by the US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio with feed usage removed. The fall low provides a useful parameter when evaluating the lows for the Chicago March wheat contract. On October 28, 2024 Chicago March wheat was trading at $5.85 or 44 cents over the current autumn low which could be considered the objective for short March wheat positions.
Year |
Central Ill. Cash Soft Red Wheat Timing of a Low |
US Wheat Carryout |
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End |
September |
October |
November |
December |
January |
February |
March |
% Usage ex Feed |
2009 |
$3.06 |
16% |
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2004 |
$3.16 |
18% |
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2008 |
$7.12 |
20% |
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1997 |
$3.18 |
22% |
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1998 |
22% |
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1993 |
$3.22 |
24% |
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1996 |
$4.35 |
25% |
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1994 |
$2.83 |
27% |
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2007 |
$3.10 |
29% |
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2006 |
$2.72 |
30% |
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2015 |
$4.39 |
30% |
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1995 |
32% |
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1999 |
$2.02 |
32% |
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2005 |
$2.64 |
32% |
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2010 |
$3.45 |
33% |
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2003 |
34% |
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2014 |
$5.62 |
34% |
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2023 |
34% |
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2024 |
$4.87 |
34% |
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2016 |
$4.33 |
37% |
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2011 |
$5.71 |
40% |
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2000 |
$1.69 |
41% |
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2013 |
41% |
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2024 |
44% |
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2002 |
$2.46 |
45% |
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2012 |
$5.44 |
47% |
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2017 |
$3.53 |
47% |
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2019 |
47% |
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2022 |
$6.74 |
48% |
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2020 |
$4.38 |
49% |
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2001 |
$2.02 |
50% |
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2021 |
$5.13 |
53% |
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2018 |
$3.91 |
58% |
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Years Ranked by the US wheat carryout to usage (ex feed) ratio |