Chicago May Wheat Price Range Forecast – 12/31/2022
The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10 per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered the historic (years ending in 2008 through 2022 and the current data for 2023) high and low price for Chicago May wheat as a function of the US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio. Note that May wheat last season. 2022, (marked as 22) read high on the scatters and the May 2023 price range could as well, considering the new crop wheat outlook suggests another tight supply balance for US wheat in 2023/24.
Major improvement in the new crop wheat outlook or a break in the corn market are hazards to the long side of the Chicago wheat market.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||
| Crop Years | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. |
| Planted | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.7 |
| Harv. | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 |
| Yield | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 |
| Carryin | 1028 | 845 | 669 |
| Prod | 1828 | 1646 | 1650 |
| Imports | 100 | 95 | 120 |
| Supply | 2956 | 2587 | 2439 |
| Food | 961 | 972 | 977 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 66 |
| Feed | 93 | 88 | 50 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1117 | 1093 |
| Exports | 994 | 800 | 775 |
| Total | 2111 | 1917 | 1868 |
| Carryout | 845 | 669 | 571 |
| Carryout % use | 40.0% | 34.9% | 30.6% |
| USDA 12/9/2022 | |||
USDA has scheduled release of the January WASDE report and the US winter wheat seeding report (acres planted in the Autumn of 2022 for harvest in 2023) for January 12, 2023.