Cattle Price Analysis – 02/10/2021

Published by David Tedrow on

USDA increased the 2021 US .beef production estimate this month. A record number of cattle on feed compared to the total cattle inventory may have prompted the increase.

We have scattered   Midwest finished steer prices against the domestic per capita beef supply for the April/June period. Note that current spring live cattle futures prices are trading about $9/cwt premium to the USDA’s forecast released in the February WAOB report.

The data in 2020 was distorted by the Covid episode and does drag the 2000-2020 regression line down by several dollars. The current live steer futures price is within the standard deviation of the USDA ‘s regression  forecast. But to be aggressively bullish one would rather see cattle trading at the low end of the standard deviation envelope.

Categories: Livestock

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