US soybean area will be 4% smaller this season based on results of the March Prospective planting survey. We have worked through the production table with a bottom line of a 2025 US soybean crop of 4.3 billion bushels versus 4.4 billion in 2024. Over the last 60 years the Read more…
USDA did not make any changes to the corn old crop corn S/D forecast this month but did cut the US sorghum export forecast for the 2024/25 crop year. Sorghum exports are now expected to be barely one third of the USDA’ s forecast at the beginning of the season. Sorghum Read more…
The soybean/corn price ratio since harvest suggests corn will gain some area at the expense of soybeans in 2025. The cost of corn seeding compared to soybeans, as measured by the fertilizer price index, is well below the recent peak in 2022, but still high compared to years prior to Read more…
Feedlots increased both feeder placements and finished cattle sales in February 2024. Cattle on feed March 1 was up 1% from a year ago. Based on feeder placemats over the last six months cattle marketed in the next six months will likely decline 3% year over year. Cattle weights at Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory totaled 71.5 million head on June 1 compared to the year over year comparison of 72.3 million head. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck to the one percent cut in March/May sows farrowing intentions expressed in the March 2023 survey. The June Hogs & Pigs Read more…
We estimate December 1, 2022 US wheat stocks at 1.3 billion bushels compared to 1.4 billion bushels a year ago and the smallest stocks this century . The major unknown in the second quarter US wheat supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2022/2023 crop year at 220 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the December/March high for March soybean meal as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio as forecast by USDA Read more…
Feedlots increased finish cattle sales 4% last month but reduced the number of cattle placed by 4% in September 2022. Finished cattle marketings over the next seven months will increase fractionally on a year over year basis based on COF data. Cattle placements in the first nine months of the Read more…
March 2022 Cattle feedlot placements declined modestly last month but remained at a relatively high level compared with same month data published in recent years. Finished cattle marketings also declined fractionally on a year over year basis. Live (finished) cattle sales will likely decline slightly year over year for the Read more…
USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January USDA estimate. The balance table methodology used by most fundamentalists becomes less Read more…
US coarse grain sales in mid January totaled 52 million tonnes down from a year ago , but on the upper side of commitments at the same time in most of the last 30 years. The quantity of corn available from the Southern Hemisphere is still in doubt but the Read more…
The March 2021 US hog inventory likely fell well short of the year earlier level but remained ahead of the recent 20 year trend. The virus disruption to the slaughter schedule of a year ago appears to be cleaned up. The winter hog price rally has likely run its course Read more…
The winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent this week which was down from 55% last week, but still exceeds the 33 year average of 49%. The USDA will release the first US winter estimate of the season May 12. We have estimated the crop in a previous Read more…
The value of corn has lost on the value of soybeans this spring. The reduction in demand for corn as fuel stock and the expectation of a surplus in new crop corn supplies has weighed on corn prices. Both in absolute terms and relative to soybeans. Farmers could Read more…
The USDA Rated 62% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on the 2nd week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 48%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield since 1988 and a forecast range for 2020 based on Read more…
The USDA increased both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop estimates by one million tonnes this month. We have found that the Brazilian estimate has increased from the March forecast into the austral fall in most years in which the March soybean estimate was increased. But the same trend does Read more…
The USDA has estimated the January 1 U.S. feeder supply outside feedlots at roughly 200 thousand head less than available a year ago. We have scattered the 1st quarter feeder price as a function of the January 1 feeder supply. The point marked in red is the price and supply Read more…
U.S. soybean sales are close to that needed to match the USDA crop year export total of 1.775 billion bushels or 47 million tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales.
The USDA made modest changes in the corn 2019/2020 supply/usage estimates this month. The feed estimate was raised to 5.5 billion bushels from 5.35 billion the previous month and 5.6 billion bushels a year ago. The U.S. hog herd was up 3% on December 1 and broiler production is running Read more…