Soybean Complex

USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 50+ soybean yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.

The USDA raised the soybean planted area estimate modestly based on data gathered from the June survey. Here is a look at the supply/demand balance incorporating the new data.    The center column is the WAOB June  estimate and the right most column assumes the June survey estimate.  

USDA rated 71% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as  of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is still off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a Read more

USDA rated 70% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as  of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a standard Read more

Soybean meal appears to have significant upside potential assuming the USDA’s June 2020/2021 soybean  supply/demand balance. The graph shows the calculation of high and low 48 % cash soybean meal forecasts when the 2020/2021 soybean carryout and soybean meal  export estimates are applied to parameters derived from 1983 through 2020 Read more

USDA has forecast the combined new crop Brazilian/Argentine crop at 184  million tonnes compared to the 174 million tonne crop just harvested. Preparation for the new crop will begin in September. The 2019/2020 South American growing season proved to be just  average especially in Argentina where yield fell below trend. Read more

The USDA forecasts the new crop soybean carryout at 395 bushels compared to the old crop estimate of 585 million.We have developed supply/usage tables which assume soybean production in a poor growing year and in a great growing season. We have not adjusted  usage from that assumed by USDA. The Read more

We have developed a summer cash soybean price model based on the U.S soybean supply usage balance as forecast by the USDA in late summer and the price of soybeans prevailing in the spring. The results of the equations are displayed in the accompanying chart.    As a start we Read more

The USDA increased the old crop soybean carryout this month due to weaker than expected export demand. Otherwise the old crop balance was unchanged. The new crop carryout was projected at 400 million bushels which we  judge as neither burdensome or tight. The USDA anticipates a major recovery in  soybean Read more

USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. soybean supply usage balance of the 20/21 season in  May. The first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey forecast and the size of the old soybean crop in South America.  Leftover old crop Southern American Read more

The USDA cut the 2019/20 soybean export estimate this month but increased the crush assessment. Competition from the big South American soybean crop is reducing old export  prospects.  U.S. soybean processors have benefited from increased soybean meal disappearance and stronger soybean oil exports. The crush would be stronger but for Read more

The USDA dropped both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean estimates this month. Dry weather late in the growing season resulted in yield expectations still at trend level but falling short of the above trend outlook published a month ago. In the period from the mid 1980’s into 2019 the correlation Read more

The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to soybeans in 2020 at  83.5 million acres which would be up sharply from a year ago, but under the average area planted in the years of 2017 through 2018.. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate  was Read more

The pace of US soybean export sales has fallen below that needed to make the USDA’S March estimate of 1825 million bushels.    U.S. soybean exporters will face stiff competition from a record South American  soybean crop through the remainder of the calendar year. The USDA may trim the old Read more

The USDA has scheduled the release of the March planting survey for March 3,.2020. We have developed a model for the March soybean survey based on the harvest to early spring price of soybeans, corn and soybean area the previous year. Cash soybeans in central Illinois have scored a high Read more

Cash soybeans (Central Ill.) appear to have potential for a spring rally.  The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybeans as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean oil exports and soy oil used as fuel to forecast Read more

Cash soybean meal has potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybean meal as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean meal exports to forecast the winter spring soybean meal price range. Note Read more

The USDA’s February forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop used a yield slightly above the 25 year trend. The Argentine soybean yield for 2020 was assumed to be directly on the 25 year trend.   The USDA’s February Brazilian production estimate on a first difference basis has only a 40% Read more

U.S. soybean oil sales are running well ahead of the  pace needed to match the USDA’s crop year export total of 1.7 billion pounds or 771 thousand tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales. Strong export sales will be a supporting Read more