The USDA increased the old crop soybean carryout this month due to weaker than expected export demand. Otherwise the old crop balance was unchanged. The new crop carryout was projected at 400 million bushels which we judge as neither burdensome or tight. The USDA anticipates a major recovery in soybean Read more…
USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. soybean supply usage balance of the 20/21 season in May. The first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey forecast and the size of the old soybean crop in South America. Leftover old crop Southern American Read more…
The USDA cut the 2019/20 soybean export estimate this month but increased the crush assessment. Competition from the big South American soybean crop is reducing old export prospects. U.S. soybean processors have benefited from increased soybean meal disappearance and stronger soybean oil exports. The crush would be stronger but for Read more…
The USDA dropped both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean estimates this month. Dry weather late in the growing season resulted in yield expectations still at trend level but falling short of the above trend outlook published a month ago. In the period from the mid 1980’s into 2019 the correlation Read more…
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to soybeans in 2020 at 83.5 million acres which would be up sharply from a year ago, but under the average area planted in the years of 2017 through 2018.. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was Read more…
The pace of US soybean export sales has fallen below that needed to make the USDA’S March estimate of 1825 million bushels. U.S. soybean exporters will face stiff competition from a record South American soybean crop through the remainder of the calendar year. The USDA may trim the old Read more…
The USDA increased both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop estimates by one million tonnes this month. We have found that the Brazilian estimate has increased from the March forecast into the austral fall in most years in which the March soybean estimate was increased. But the same trend does Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the release of the March planting survey for March 3,.2020. We have developed a model for the March soybean survey based on the harvest to early spring price of soybeans, corn and soybean area the previous year. Cash soybeans in central Illinois have scored a high Read more…
Cash soybeans (Central Ill.) appear to have potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybeans as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean oil exports and soy oil used as fuel to forecast Read more…
Cash soybean meal has potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybean meal as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean meal exports to forecast the winter spring soybean meal price range. Note Read more…
The USDA’s February forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop used a yield slightly above the 25 year trend. The Argentine soybean yield for 2020 was assumed to be directly on the 25 year trend. The USDA’s February Brazilian production estimate on a first difference basis has only a 40% Read more…
U.S. soybean oil sales are running well ahead of the pace needed to match the USDA’s crop year export total of 1.7 billion pounds or 771 thousand tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales. Strong export sales will be a supporting Read more…
U.S. soybean sales are close to that needed to match the USDA crop year export total of 1.775 billion bushels or 47 million tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales.
The USDA made only minor changes in the soybean complex supply/usage estimates this month. USDA elected not to change the South American soybean crop estimate leaving Brazil at 123 million tonnes and Argentine output at 53 million tonnes. USDA shuffled the estimates for the 2019 soybean crop reducing the area Read more…
The accompanying economic value study estimates the winter – early spring high and low for Central Ill soybean prices. The study uses U.S. soybean carryout stocks and the quantity of U.S. soybean oil used as fuel or exported as independent variables. The resulting forecasts are very optimistic compared to USDA’ Read more…
Weather in Argentina has generally favored the soybean crop this season (January in the Southern Hemisphere equates to July in the U.S.) USDA is likely to maintain the December forecast of 53 million tonnes included with the January World Supply and Usage report scheduled for January 10, 2020. In Brazil Read more…
Soybean oil prices have moved sharply higher since the completion of harvest. A depletion in world and U.S. soybean oil stocks has been the dominate force behind the stronger oil market. USDA has forecast a sharp increase in Biofuel use which has strengthened soybean oil demand. Soybean meal export demand Read more…
Late December U.S. soybean Meal sales for the current season totaled 5.5 million tonnes compared to 6.8 million tonnes at the same point last season. This scatter study uses late December sales as a barometer of crop year exports. The USDA’s December forecast (marked in red) is on the very Read more…
Late December U.S. soybean sales for the current season totaled 29.5 million tonnes compared to 31 million tonnes at the same point last season. This scatter study uses late December sales as a barometer of crop year exports. The USDA’s December forecast (marked in red) is on the optimistic side Read more…
Weather in the southern hemisphere will be the dominant force in the soybean market this month. A China trade agreement would be a positive force on soybean price discovery.