This month the USDA forecast cash soybean meal price for the 2020/2021 season at $335/ton. We have scattered the historic October/May highs for central Illinois meal versus the USDA estimate. Note the scatter suggests a potential high between $400 and $500. In the past USDA made range price forecasts but Read more
Domestic soybean meal consumption is a function of High Protein Consuming Animal Units and the price of soybean meal. The HPCAU index and meal price account for 87% of the variation in meal consumption over the period 1980 through 2020. In the October WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 domestic meal Read more
The USDA forecast the average soybean to the farmer at $9.80 during the 2020/21 season compared to $8.55 last season. To put the price forecast in perspective we set the average farm price as a function of the carryout to crop year usage ratio. In the October WAOB report the Read more
The USDA dropped the new crop U.S. soybean carryout estimate to 290 million bushels. Expressed as a ratio of carryout to crop year usage (excluding residual) the projection would be the tightest since 2014 (2013/2014 crop year) when cash soybeans topped $15 per bushel. The world still has the prospect Read more
The U.S. had sold 1.5 billion bushels of soybeans as of early October compared to slightly less than 600 million bushels at the same time last year. China has been the driving force behind the surge in sales. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year soybean exports as a function Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the new crop soybean carryout as a percent of usage excluding residual. Working the recent stocks data through USDA’s September S/D balance results in a 9% estimate for the independent variable. The Southern hemisphere crop Read more
U.S. exports sales for the 2020/2021 crop year totaled 1.1 billion bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of any past year. China is the big buyer with purchases totaling more than 700 million bushels.
The faltering soybean oil market has forced soybean meal to assume a larger share of the crush margin. We have forecast the October/May meal price range based 0n the prospective soybean carryout and crop year 2020/21 U.S. soybean meal exports. The USDA September estimates suggest a cash meal market high Read more
USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, but still in the upper two third of years since 1988. A yield model using trend and the weekly rating estimates the national average soybean Read more
China has gotten off to a fast start purchasing 15 million tonnes of soybeans for 2020/21 delivery compared to less than a million tonnes at the same time last year. China’s soybean imports are a linear function of soybean meal usage as the variation of use of domestic soybean meal Read more
The USDA cu the 2020/2021 soybean carryout forecast to 460 million bushels compared to the 615 million bushel forecast in August. Based on the September WAOB report our harvest time study suggests a high near $12 for cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Strong demand from China and a smaller crop Read more
China has purchased more than 13 million tonnes of new crop U.S. soybeans which is well ahead of the pace established in recent years.China’s soybean purchases are keyed to increasing domestic soybean meal demand and the effort to provide the population with increased animal protein. In the season just ended Read more
This week USDA dropped the U.S. soybean crop rating to 66% good or excellent compared to 69% the previous week and the 30 year average 56% for the same week. Our crop conditions model projects a national average soybean yield of about 50 bushels per harvested acre compared to the Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the harvest high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of USDA’s supply/usage balance as published in November. The WAOB’s latest forecast results in a U.S. stocks/usage (excluding residual) ratio of 14% and a calculated harvest high of $10.34. Reducing the 2020 U.S. soybean yield Read more
The USDA forecast the season average soybean price at farm level in 20/21 at $8.35 compared to $8.55 during the season just concluded. The $8.35 forecast would suggest a season high of $10.36 and season low of $7.25 basis cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more
The USDA rated 72% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 8/16/2020 compared to 74% the previous week and the 31-year average of 57%. Ratings normally drop slightly in August as can be observed in the chart. Last week’s storm damage would amount to less than Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the average season farm level soybean price as a function of the soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio. The August 2020 WAOB soybean supply usage balance results in a new crop ratio of 14% compared to the old crop ratio of 16%. Read more
USDA rated 74% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition on August 9 compared to the 32 year average for that date of 58%.The rating is associated with a yield estimate on 51+ bushels per acre compared the USDA July estimate of slightly less than 50 bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release the August soybean crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 51 bushels per acre which is just off the record 52 bushels/harvested acre set in 2016. The correlation index for the August yield forecast and the final estimate published Read more
A model that forecasts the National average soybean yield based on late July conditions projects a yield of just under 51 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July estimate of just under 50 bushels. Holding usage constant would put the 2020/2021 carryout at 480+ bushels compared to the USDA’s Read more