USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, but still in the upper two third of years since 1988. A yield model using trend and the weekly rating estimates the national average soybean Read more…
China has gotten off to a fast start purchasing 15 million tonnes of soybeans for 2020/21 delivery compared to less than a million tonnes at the same time last year. China’s soybean imports are a linear function of soybean meal usage as the variation of use of domestic soybean meal Read more…
The USDA cu the 2020/2021 soybean carryout forecast to 460 million bushels compared to the 615 million bushel forecast in August. Based on the September WAOB report our harvest time study suggests a high near $12 for cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Strong demand from China and a smaller crop Read more…
China has purchased more than 13 million tonnes of new crop U.S. soybeans which is well ahead of the pace established in recent years.China’s soybean purchases are keyed to increasing domestic soybean meal demand and the effort to provide the population with increased animal protein. In the season just ended Read more…
This week USDA dropped the U.S. soybean crop rating to 66% good or excellent compared to 69% the previous week and the 30 year average 56% for the same week. Our crop conditions model projects a national average soybean yield of about 50 bushels per harvested acre compared to the Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the harvest high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of USDA’s supply/usage balance as published in November. The WAOB’s latest forecast results in a U.S. stocks/usage (excluding residual) ratio of 14% and a calculated harvest high of $10.34. Reducing the 2020 U.S. soybean yield Read more…
The USDA forecast the season average soybean price at farm level in 20/21 at $8.35 compared to $8.55 during the season just concluded. The $8.35 forecast would suggest a season high of $10.36 and season low of $7.25 basis cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more…
The USDA rated 72% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 8/16/2020 compared to 74% the previous week and the 31-year average of 57%. Ratings normally drop slightly in August as can be observed in the chart. Last week’s storm damage would amount to less than Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the average season farm level soybean price as a function of the soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio. The August 2020 WAOB soybean supply usage balance results in a new crop ratio of 14% compared to the old crop ratio of 16%. Read more…
USDA rated 74% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition on August 9 compared to the 32 year average for that date of 58%.The rating is associated with a yield estimate on 51+ bushels per acre compared the USDA July estimate of slightly less than 50 bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release the August soybean crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 51 bushels per acre which is just off the record 52 bushels/harvested acre set in 2016. The correlation index for the August yield forecast and the final estimate published Read more…
A model that forecasts the National average soybean yield based on late July conditions projects a yield of just under 51 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July estimate of just under 50 bushels. Holding usage constant would put the 2020/2021 carryout at 480+ bushels compared to the USDA’s Read more…
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 50+ soybean yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
The USDA raised the soybean planted area estimate modestly based on data gathered from the June survey. Here is a look at the supply/demand balance incorporating the new data. The center column is the WAOB June estimate and the right most column assumes the June survey estimate.
USDA rated 71% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is still off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a Read more…
USDA rated 70% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a standard Read more…
Soybean meal appears to have significant upside potential assuming the USDA’s June 2020/2021 soybean supply/demand balance. The graph shows the calculation of high and low 48 % cash soybean meal forecasts when the 2020/2021 soybean carryout and soybean meal export estimates are applied to parameters derived from 1983 through 2020 Read more…
USDA has forecast the combined new crop Brazilian/Argentine crop at 184 million tonnes compared to the 174 million tonne crop just harvested. Preparation for the new crop will begin in September. The 2019/2020 South American growing season proved to be just average especially in Argentina where yield fell below trend. Read more…
The USDA forecasts the new crop soybean carryout at 395 bushels compared to the old crop estimate of 585 million.We have developed supply/usage tables which assume soybean production in a poor growing year and in a great growing season. We have not adjusted usage from that assumed by USDA. The Read more…
We have developed a summer cash soybean price model based on the U.S soybean supply usage balance as forecast by the USDA in late summer and the price of soybeans prevailing in the spring. The results of the equations are displayed in the accompanying chart. As a start we Read more…