The March Prospective Planting survey found farmers intending to plant 87.6 million acres to soybeans this spring. Except in a favorable growing season that area won’t be enough to cover 2021/2022 US soybean usage as projected in the benchmark estimates published in February 2021. In the near term the market’s Read more…
The March Planting Survey projected 2021 soybean planted area at 87.6 million acres, up from 83 million acres a year ago , but short of what is needed to cover usage as presently forecast by USDA. We have scattered the final soybean planted area as a function of the March Read more…
Midwest soybeans appear to have additional upside potential based on forecast in the latest WAOB report. USDA now estimates the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at only 120 million bushels or less than 3% of crop year usage (excluding residual) compared to 10% a year ago. We have scattered the harvest Read more…
US soybean meal sales are running under the pace to make the USDA’s crop year forecast of 14.24 million short tons. But there have been a two years in which the pace of meal sales in the spring and summer quickend sufficiently to push the crop year meal sales total Read more…
Farmers are likely to increase the number of acres devoted to soybeans this spring in response to the profitability of soybeans this season. Soybeans will have to compete with $5.00 plus corn, but there should be enough area available to increase cultivation of both crops. We have plotted the soybean Read more…
The WOAB forecast the US soybean carryout for the 2020/2021 season at 140 million bushels or 3% of crop year usage which would be among the tightest seasons in the last 50 years. Our long term price model suggests a winter spring high for Central Illinois soybeans at near $18 Read more…
The USDA forecasts 2020/21 US meal exports at 14 million short tons which is optimistic compared to end of December sales of less than seven million tons. USDA may be counting on the recent tendency for US soybean meal sales to strengthen in the second half of the crop year Read more…
Dry weather has hampered South American soybean development this season. USDA will almost certainly downgrade the crop estimates on January 12. We have plugged in our crop estimates assuming the soybean crops in both Brazil and Argentina will fall at trend level or less. The Austral season still has roughly Read more…
The USDA forecast the average price of soybean oil at Central Illinois processors for October 2020 through September 2021 at 34 cents per pound this month roughly 4 cents under current near by futures quotes. We have scattered the winter/spring high and low for cash soybean oil as a function Read more…
In the November WAOB report USDA forecast the 2021 US soybean carryout at 190 million bushels or about 4% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the October/May high and low for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout as a % of crop Read more…
USDA cut the Argentine soybean production estimate this month as planted area appears likely to fall short of earlier expectations. Weather to date has been average to above average and easily supports a trend yield forecast. USDA left the Brazilian soybean production estimate at the level maintained the past Read more…
The soybean crush margin has improved sharply this fall as bull markets in products have increased processor revenue while the arrival of new crop soybeans held down raw product costs. Favorable margins could boost the 2020/2021 soybean crush level in excess of USDA’s current estimate of 2.18 billion bushels and Read more…
This month the USDA forecast cash soybean meal price for the 2020/2021 season at $335/ton. We have scattered the historic October/May highs for central Illinois meal versus the USDA estimate. Note the scatter suggests a potential high between $400 and $500. In the past USDA made range price forecasts but Read more…
Domestic soybean meal consumption is a function of High Protein Consuming Animal Units and the price of soybean meal. The HPCAU index and meal price account for 87% of the variation in meal consumption over the period 1980 through 2020. In the October WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 domestic meal Read more…
The USDA forecast the average soybean to the farmer at $9.80 during the 2020/21 season compared to $8.55 last season. To put the price forecast in perspective we set the average farm price as a function of the carryout to crop year usage ratio. In the October WAOB report the Read more…
The USDA dropped the new crop U.S. soybean carryout estimate to 290 million bushels. Expressed as a ratio of carryout to crop year usage (excluding residual) the projection would be the tightest since 2014 (2013/2014 crop year) when cash soybeans topped $15 per bushel. The world still has the prospect Read more…
The U.S. had sold 1.5 billion bushels of soybeans as of early October compared to slightly less than 600 million bushels at the same time last year. China has been the driving force behind the surge in sales. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year soybean exports as a function Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the high for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the new crop soybean carryout as a percent of usage excluding residual. Working the recent stocks data through USDA’s September S/D balance results in a 9% estimate for the independent variable. The Southern hemisphere crop Read more…
U.S. exports sales for the 2020/2021 crop year totaled 1.1 billion bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of any past year. China is the big buyer with purchases totaling more than 700 million bushels.
The faltering soybean oil market has forced soybean meal to assume a larger share of the crush margin. We have forecast the October/May meal price range based 0n the prospective soybean carryout and crop year 2020/21 U.S. soybean meal exports. The USDA September estimates suggest a cash meal market high Read more…