US soybean sales increased to 60 plus million tonnes in the period ending March 3, 2022 which is the second fastest pace after last season when Chinese soybeans purchases exceeded the historical pace. China has been buying new crop US soybeans over the last month as crop conditions in South Read more
The US new crop (September 2022/August 2023)soybean carryout would not change much from the old crop February 2022 estimate based on USDA’s trend line forecasts. USDA has soybean planted area less than half million acres larger in 2022 than that planted in 2021. Farmers are likely to take advantage of Read more
USDA trimmed the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout forecast this month to 325 million bushels from the 350 million bushels expected last month More importantly USDA also cut the South American 2022 soybean forecast to 185 million tonnes from the February forecast of 194 million tonnes. We have prepared Read more
The USDA has cut both the Argentine and Brazilian Soybean production forecasts the two months reflecting poor growing conditions during early austral growing season. In the period from 1986 through 2021, USDA has further reduced the Argentine soybean production forecast in seven of the eight years in which the February Read more
USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January USDA estimate. The balance table methodology used by most fundamentalists becomes less Read more
US farmers are projected to increase the area devoted to soybeans this spring considering —- … The soybean corn price ratio is above the midpoint of the past 30 year range. … The cost of diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer has increased 30+ percent and 54% respectively over the last Read more
US soybean export sales had totaled 45 million tonnes by mid January 2022 which was down from a year ago but near the recent uptrend. The reduced sales from a year ago was due to the limited activity of China in the US soybean market. China has preferred to wait Read more
The central Illinois soybean crush margin has exceeded the past 30 year highs this week averaging more than $4/bushel. Strong demand for both soybean meal and oil have supported the crush margin. The soybean crop development in South America will remain the dominant force in the soybean market over the Read more
This month USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 350 million bushels or 8.1% of usage (crush, exports and seed). The accompanying scatter studies display the January – May high and lows for cash soybeans (Central Illinois) as a function of the US soybean to crop year Read more
Dry weather in the Southern half of the Brazilian row crop area will likely result in a soybean crop smaller than the 144 million tonne (5.3 billion bushels) crop USDA forecast last month. We performed a what if analysis and assumed the 2022 Brazilian soybean yield would fall one standard Read more
Dry weather appears to be damaging the new Argentine soybean crop. Last month USDA forecast the crop at 49.5 million tonnes or about 1.8 billion bushels. A what if analysis based on the 2011/2012 austral crop year would put the 2022 yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare versus the December Read more
Warmer and drier than normal weather is negatively impacting the Brazilian soybean crop. Earlier this month the USDA maintained a trend yield forecast for the new Brazilian crop of 144 million tonnes or 3.56 tonnes per hectare. As a what if exercise we assumed an average yield of 3 tonnes Read more
Soybean crush margins this Autumn have averaged more than $1.00 per bushel better than in the two previous years. Strong demand for both products, but especially for soybean oil, has benefited soybean crushers. Wide margins spur the soybean crush and also provide a cushion for soybeans if meal and oil Read more
In the November 2021 WASDE report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US soybean carryout at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). The accompanying scatter studies plot the winter and early spring high and low for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more
The US had sold 1.27 billion bushels of soybeans by mid November compared to 1.9 billion bushels at the same time the previous year. Mid November soybean sales to China totaled less than 700 million bushels compared to more than a billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Read more
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2021/2022 crop year at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the October/May high for Midwest soybean meal as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio as forecast by USDA Read more
In the week ending 10/21/2021 the USDA calculated the Central Illinois soybean crush margin at $3.87/bushel, well in excess of the recent 4 year average $2.00 per bushel. Strong demand for biodiesel has been a major force supporting soybean oil prices and the crush margin. USDA has forecast a small Read more
In the October WAOB report the USDA forecast the average soybean meal price for the 2021/2022 crop year at $325 per short ton. The accompanying scatter studies plot the high and low monthly values for soybean meal as a function of the USDA’s October price forecast. The studies suggest a Read more
China soybean imports account for about a third of the combined U.S., Brazilian, and Argentine soybean crops. Chinese soybean demand is a linear function of Chinese soybean meal demand as China’s domestic soybean production variability is small compared to the size of crush needed to meet domestic protein consumption. This Read more
USDA increased the new crop soybean US soybean carryout forecast this month to 320 million bushels from 185 million bushels in September. The soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio would calculate to 7% based on the October data compared to 4% in September. A 7% ratio would suggest a Read more