This month USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 350 million bushels or 8.1% of usage (crush, exports and seed). The accompanying scatter studies display the January – May high and lows for cash soybeans (Central Illinois) as a function of the US soybean to crop year Read more…
Dry weather in the Southern half of the Brazilian row crop area will likely result in a soybean crop smaller than the 144 million tonne (5.3 billion bushels) crop USDA forecast last month. We performed a what if analysis and assumed the 2022 Brazilian soybean yield would fall one standard Read more…
Dry weather appears to be damaging the new Argentine soybean crop. Last month USDA forecast the crop at 49.5 million tonnes or about 1.8 billion bushels. A what if analysis based on the 2011/2012 austral crop year would put the 2022 yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare versus the December Read more…
Warmer and drier than normal weather is negatively impacting the Brazilian soybean crop. Earlier this month the USDA maintained a trend yield forecast for the new Brazilian crop of 144 million tonnes or 3.56 tonnes per hectare. As a what if exercise we assumed an average yield of 3 tonnes Read more…
Soybean crush margins this Autumn have averaged more than $1.00 per bushel better than in the two previous years. Strong demand for both products, but especially for soybean oil, has benefited soybean crushers. Wide margins spur the soybean crush and also provide a cushion for soybeans if meal and oil Read more…
In the November 2021 WASDE report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US soybean carryout at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). The accompanying scatter studies plot the winter and early spring high and low for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more…
The US had sold 1.27 billion bushels of soybeans by mid November compared to 1.9 billion bushels at the same time the previous year. Mid November soybean sales to China totaled less than 700 million bushels compared to more than a billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2021/2022 crop year at 340 million bushels or 8% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the October/May high for Midwest soybean meal as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio as forecast by USDA Read more…
In the week ending 10/21/2021 the USDA calculated the Central Illinois soybean crush margin at $3.87/bushel, well in excess of the recent 4 year average $2.00 per bushel. Strong demand for biodiesel has been a major force supporting soybean oil prices and the crush margin. USDA has forecast a small Read more…
In the October WAOB report the USDA forecast the average soybean meal price for the 2021/2022 crop year at $325 per short ton. The accompanying scatter studies plot the high and low monthly values for soybean meal as a function of the USDA’s October price forecast. The studies suggest a Read more…
China soybean imports account for about a third of the combined U.S., Brazilian, and Argentine soybean crops. Chinese soybean demand is a linear function of Chinese soybean meal demand as China’s domestic soybean production variability is small compared to the size of crush needed to meet domestic protein consumption. This Read more…
USDA increased the new crop soybean US soybean carryout forecast this month to 320 million bushels from 185 million bushels in September. The soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio would calculate to 7% based on the October data compared to 4% in September. A 7% ratio would suggest a Read more…
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report put the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at 256 million bushels, up from the September WAOB estimate of 175 million bushels. We have also calculated a what if new crop 2021/2022 US soybean balance balance assuming a drop in the 2021 US soybean yield estimate to Read more…
USDA cut the good + excellent rating for the US soybean crop to 56 on 8/22 compared to 57 the previous week. A 56 rating in late August suggests a national average soybean yield of 49 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s August forecast of 50 bushels per Read more…
USDA put 57% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on August 15 compared to 60% the previous week. The September soybean yield estimate has been less than the August estimate (50 bushels /harvested acre this year) in 14 of 18 years in which the crop index Read more…
This week the USDA assessed 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. In the years 1988 through 2020 there was a significant correlation between the revision of USDA’s soybean crop estimate in August (a survey based forecast) from the July estimate (based primarily on trend) and Read more…
The USDA rated 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on 7/18/2021 which compared to the preceding 35-year average of 61%. A model based on the mid-season crop rating for the years 1986 through 2020 forecasts a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 155 million bushels or 3.5% of usage (excluding residual). A carryover of less than 5% would be considered the minimum pipeline level based on historical data. We have scattered the harvest time lows and highs for central Read more…
The USDA rated 60% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 20 which is slightly behind the 62% average for the same week for the years from 1986 through 2020. In the June WAOB report USDA forecast the US average soybean yield at 50.8 Read more…
The contributing value of soybean meal and soybean oil on a per bushel basis were roughly equal in central Illinois on June 3 which is a very unusual situation. The crush margin basis Decatur Illinois exceeded $3.00 per bushel in the week ending June 3 which is the best in Read more…