Soybean crop development in Brazil and Argentina during the austral summer will likely hold traders’ attention through the next few months. USDA expects the combined crop in the Southern Hemisphere will be much larger than the 2022 US soybean crop. So far weather has been less than favorable in Argentina, Read more
March soybean oil and March corn have maintained a close correlation over the past 50 years. Currently, soybean oil is trading on the high side of the price of corn. Both March soybean oil and March corn futures prices have a bullish bias (a 20% advantage of bull years over Read more
The outlook for a huge increase in South American soybean production is the major bearish force in the soybean complex futures market. We have charted the USDA’s December 2022 forecast for the 2022/2023 South American season. Important points include … …The expected South American soybean crop is much larger than Read more
This month USDA projected the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels compared to last year’s carryout November forecast of 205 million bushels and the final estimate for 2021/22 of 256 million bushels. The accompanying table displays high and low price forecasts for central Illinois soybeans based on alternative Read more
The soybean crush margin is record wide due to strong soybean oil and meal demand. Soybean meal still accounts for a larger portion of the crush, but only by a small margin. Demand for soybean oil used in Bio Fuel has made a significant change in the crush balance. Wide Read more
Bullish Soybean traders were disappointed as the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed the old crop soybean carryout was 34 million bushels larger than USDA estimated just a few weeks earlier. The increase in carryout creates a negative residual in the 2021/2022 US soybean balance table and likely means the Read more
In the September 2022 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels or 4.5% of usage which is very close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for March soybeans as a function of the USDA’s Read more
The US 2022 soybean growing season has come to a close with the weekly crop data supplied by USDA suggesting a modestly smaller crop than the August estimate. A model using the weekly good/excellent data from USDA forecasts a national average soybean yield of 50 bushels per harvested acre compared Read more
This week USDA assigned 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition which is slightly below both the previous week and previous year’s level. A regression study using weekly soybean crop data for the years 1985 through 2021 suggests a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels Read more
USDA rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/24/2022 which is slightly under the 60% same week average for the previous 30 years. The historical crop index – soybean yield association would suggest a US national average soybean yield in 2022 of 49 Read more
USDA rated 61% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 17 which is close to the long term average. A model using the crop index and trend to project the national US soybean yield calculates the 2022 crop at 50.4 bushels per harvested acre which Read more
USDA’s June acreage survey found two million plus fewer soybean acres than was forecast by the March Report. Assuming the USDA’s trend yield projection, the 88 million acres planted (87 million harvested) to soybeans would produce a crop of 4.5 billion bushels compared to the 4.4 billion bushels harvested in Read more
This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November soybeans as a function of the new crop US soybean crop year usage ratio as forecast Read more
On June 3, 2022 September soybeans closed 33 cents premium to November soybeans. Historically, the November – September spread has been a function of the US soybean carryover relative to crop year usage. The drought in South America last winter (Austral summer) created a surge in demand for US soybeans Read more
November soybeans would have more downside than upside potential based on the USDA’s new crop supply/usage balance published on May 12. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer-fall high and low for the November soybean contract as a function of the ratio of new crop stocks to crop year usage. Read more
Soybean oil values hit new all time highs last week on news Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil exporter, would restrict palm oil export sales to limit domestic food inflation. The three year bull market in soybean oil has resulted in major changes in the soybean crush industry. Soybean oil Read more
Soybean export sales hit a record 67 million tonnes on 04/14/2022 thanks to Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans. A short soybean crop in South America has boosted US soybean export sales. USDA will likely boost old crop US soybean exports in next month’s WASDE report Note data include both Read more
USDA’s March survey found US farmers intending to plant a record area to soybeans this spring. Working through the 2022/2023 US soybean supply/usage table using, USDA’s trend forecasts provided last month and the March planted area estimate would suggest a modest buildup in US soybean carryout stocks next (2023) summer. Read more
The accompanying scatter studies displays the spring trading range for cash soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout/crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in June. Currently cash soybeans are trading at an elevated level compared to the historic stocks/price function as expressed in the regression line. Read more
USDA cut the South American (Brazil. Argentina, Paraguay) this month by 10 million tonnes or 350 million bushels. The crop is now forecast to fall well below the year earlier level. Most of the deficit will be filled by US soybeans although a portion will be filled with US new Read more