This week USDA assigned 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition which is slightly below both the previous week and previous year’s level. A regression study using weekly soybean crop data for the years 1985 through 2021 suggests a national average soybean yield of 49.5 bushels Read more…
USDA rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/24/2022 which is slightly under the 60% same week average for the previous 30 years. The historical crop index – soybean yield association would suggest a US national average soybean yield in 2022 of 49 Read more…
USDA rated 61% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 17 which is close to the long term average. A model using the crop index and trend to project the national US soybean yield calculates the 2022 crop at 50.4 bushels per harvested acre which Read more…
USDA’s June acreage survey found two million plus fewer soybean acres than was forecast by the March Report. Assuming the USDA’s trend yield projection, the 88 million acres planted (87 million harvested) to soybeans would produce a crop of 4.5 billion bushels compared to the 4.4 billion bushels harvested in Read more…
This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November soybeans as a function of the new crop US soybean crop year usage ratio as forecast Read more…
On June 3, 2022 September soybeans closed 33 cents premium to November soybeans. Historically, the November – September spread has been a function of the US soybean carryover relative to crop year usage. The drought in South America last winter (Austral summer) created a surge in demand for US soybeans Read more…
November soybeans would have more downside than upside potential based on the USDA’s new crop supply/usage balance published on May 12. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer-fall high and low for the November soybean contract as a function of the ratio of new crop stocks to crop year usage. Read more…
Soybean oil values hit new all time highs last week on news Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil exporter, would restrict palm oil export sales to limit domestic food inflation. The three year bull market in soybean oil has resulted in major changes in the soybean crush industry. Soybean oil Read more…
Soybean export sales hit a record 67 million tonnes on 04/14/2022 thanks to Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans. A short soybean crop in South America has boosted US soybean export sales. USDA will likely boost old crop US soybean exports in next month’s WASDE report Note data include both Read more…
USDA’s March survey found US farmers intending to plant a record area to soybeans this spring. Working through the 2022/2023 US soybean supply/usage table using, USDA’s trend forecasts provided last month and the March planted area estimate would suggest a modest buildup in US soybean carryout stocks next (2023) summer. Read more…
The accompanying scatter studies displays the spring trading range for cash soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout/crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in June. Currently cash soybeans are trading at an elevated level compared to the historic stocks/price function as expressed in the regression line. Read more…
USDA cut the South American (Brazil. Argentina, Paraguay) this month by 10 million tonnes or 350 million bushels. The crop is now forecast to fall well below the year earlier level. Most of the deficit will be filled by US soybeans although a portion will be filled with US new Read more…
US soybean sales increased to 60 plus million tonnes in the period ending March 3, 2022 which is the second fastest pace after last season when Chinese soybeans purchases exceeded the historical pace. China has been buying new crop US soybeans over the last month as crop conditions in South Read more…
The US new crop (September 2022/August 2023)soybean carryout would not change much from the old crop February 2022 estimate based on USDA’s trend line forecasts. USDA has soybean planted area less than half million acres larger in 2022 than that planted in 2021. Farmers are likely to take advantage of Read more…
USDA trimmed the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout forecast this month to 325 million bushels from the 350 million bushels expected last month More importantly USDA also cut the South American 2022 soybean forecast to 185 million tonnes from the February forecast of 194 million tonnes. We have prepared Read more…
The USDA has cut both the Argentine and Brazilian Soybean production forecasts the two months reflecting poor growing conditions during early austral growing season. In the period from 1986 through 2021, USDA has further reduced the Argentine soybean production forecast in seven of the eight years in which the February Read more…
USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January USDA estimate. The balance table methodology used by most fundamentalists becomes less Read more…
US farmers are projected to increase the area devoted to soybeans this spring considering —- … The soybean corn price ratio is above the midpoint of the past 30 year range. … The cost of diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer has increased 30+ percent and 54% respectively over the last Read more…
US soybean export sales had totaled 45 million tonnes by mid January 2022 which was down from a year ago but near the recent uptrend. The reduced sales from a year ago was due to the limited activity of China in the US soybean market. China has preferred to wait Read more…
The central Illinois soybean crush margin has exceeded the past 30 year highs this week averaging more than $4/bushel. Strong demand for both soybean meal and oil have supported the crush margin. The soybean crop development in South America will remain the dominant force in the soybean market over the Read more…