The USDA tightened the US soybean usage balance estimate modestly this month by reducing the soybean production estimate based on the October survey.We have reproduced the USDA’s October WASDE report and included scatter studies with the winter high and low for deliverable soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more
US soybean export sales for 2023/2024 delivery are on the low side of recent history. Soybean importers are likely anticipating a large Southern Hemisphere soybean crop to fill February through August 2024 needs. The current strong El Nino reduces the risk of drought damaging the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop which Read more
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 crop year US soybean carryover at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage. Historically the harvest low price for November soybeans has been correlated with the new crop carryover to usage ratio. The USDA’s current US soybean S/D would suggest a low Read more
USDA dropped the US soybean national average yield to 50 bushels per harvested acre compared the trendline July forecast of 52 bushels. The yield downgrade was in line with sub average weekly USDA crop reports. In the years 1965 through 2022 the August yield estimate has had a 94% correlation Read more
USDA crop observers rated 52% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 30, 2023 which is down from the 52% with the same rating a week earlier. Historical data suggests an August estimate for the US national average soybean yield of 49 bushels/harvested acre compared Read more
December soybean meal could have significant upside potential based USDA’s current USDA new crop soybean supply/usage balance and July livestock projections The harvest price forecasts for December soybean meal, based on the US soybean carryout to usage ratio and the livestock price index (LPI). The US soybean S/D & livestock Read more
USDA cut the 2023/2024 US soybean carryout projection by 50 million bushels this month because of a smaller planted acre estimate published in June Acreage Survey report. USDA stayed with a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. As we indicated in a previous post, the Read more
USDA soybean crop condition: The USDA rated 55% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 16, 2023. This is a significant improvement over the previous week’s crop reports, which showed 51% of the crop in good or excellent condition. The improvement in crop condition is Read more
Last month the USDA forecast a record US soybean national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. However, in the week ending 7/2/2023, the USDA rated just 51% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. This is significantly below the 35-year average of 66% for Read more
USDA ‘s June area planted survey found soybean planted area at 83.5 million acres compared to the March estimate of 87.5 million acres. The 4 million acre change from March to the June census is the second largest after the 4.5 million acre loss in 2019. Plugging the new data Read more
Dry weather in the Midwest and Delta has jumped started the soybean futures market. The mid June US soybean crop rating from USDA was 54% good or excellent compared to the preceding 30-year average of 65% in the comparable week. Based on experience in the past a rating exceeding at Read more
Dry weather in parts of the Corn Belt and Delta has soybeans rated less than average by the USDA. In the week ending 6/11/23 USDA crop observers rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition compared to the June average of 62% in the years Read more
The 2023-2024 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak phase . However, the US National Weather Service has published an update suggesting there is a 60% chance of El Niño developing by the end of the year. If El Niño does develop, it is likely to be Read more
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its prospective soybean supply/usage balance for the 2023/2024 marketing year. The balance shows that the United States is expected to produce a record soybean crop of 4.5 billion bushels. This is up 200+ million bushels from the previous year and would Read more
USDA estimates old crop US soybean exports at 2.015 billion bushels. Recent soybean sales data suggest the USDA estimate may be optimistic. The accompanying chart and scatter study display indicates soybean sales are well behind previous years and the sales pace needed to make USDA’s current 2022/2023 export forecast. A Read more
Historically, soybean prices relative to corn returns, combined with past acreage trends. has accounted for 93% of the variation in the March soybean planted area survey forecast. Plugging in this year’s soybean and corn values results in a 88.9 million acre planted area forecast compared to the March survey soybean Read more
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 225 million bushels or 5% of crop year Usage. July soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined in 13 of 15 years (since 1970) in which USDA forecast a 8% or less US soybean carryout to usage ratio Read more
July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (crush + exports + seed). July soybeans prices have advanced more than declined in 14 of 15 years in which the USDA’s January carryout to usage Read more
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US soybean carryout forecast was less than 6% of estimated crop Read more
Historically, the new crop soybean (November 2023) – old crop soybean (July 2023) spread has been correlated with USDA’s January assessment of the old crop US soybean supply/usage balance. This month USDA forecast a 210 million bushel 2022/2023 crop year carryout stocks or just 5% of crop year soybean crush Read more