USDA rated 68% of the US soybean acreage in good or excellent condition as of July 7, 2024. The July 7 index was 12% better than the previous 38-year average for early July, and a yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre which is fractionally greater than the record US Read more
USDA’ June acreage survey found US farmers planting 86 million acres of soybeans in 2024. The June survey is 400 thousand acres less than the March survey forecast, but still greater than the US soybean area in 2023. The modest reduction in soybean acres from March reduces the expected new Read more
This month the USDA forecast an increase in new crop (2024/2025) US soybean carryout stocks. For the next two months the key to possible changes in the soybean supply/usage balance is weather and the impact on yield. This month USDA assumed a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per Read more
USDA made only modest changes in the US soybean supply/usage forecasts this month’s WASDE report. The old crop US soybean crush estimate was reduced by 10 million bushels which carried through to a 10 million bushel increase in old crop and new crop carryout stocks. USDA expects an increase Read more
The USDA’s May 10th report projected an increase in soybean supplies and ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. This is due to both higher expected production and larger beginning stocks. Despite a projected rise in domestic soybean crushing, stockpiles are still expected to climb to 445 million bushels, pushing Read more
December soybean meal is trading on the low side of livestock prices based on the last 50 years of historical data. We have charted the June/August price range for December soybean meal divided by the livestock price index published by the USDA. The point for 2024 is calculated using the Read more
New crop US soybean sales totaled only 17 million bushels on April 11 which is the smallest total for that date since the 2002/2003 crop year. Export traders prefer to depend on South American soybean supplies as the huge 2024 in Brazil and Argentina crop will last well into the Read more
USDA’s March Planting Intentions Survey found US farmers planning to plant 87 million acres to soybeans this spring, a 3 million acre increase from planted area a year ago. Soybeans appear set to take available US farmland primarily at the expense of corn cultivation. US soybean area forecast from the Read more
July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal Read more
Midwest farmer simulated budgets suggest soybeans hold an economic advantage over corn at midwinter prices although a soybean enterprise is only modestly more profitable per acre than corn. Utilizing data from the last thirty years, the current corn/soybean price ratio results in the forecast for US soybean planted area of Read more
USDA boosted the 2024 projection for Argentine soybean production to 50 million metric tons, up two million tonnes from the December forecast and double the very small 2023 soybean crop of just 25 million tonnes. Argentina has an outsized impact on the world soybean meal market because domestic consumption is Read more
Midwest soybean processing margins have declined since the end of harvest, a normal seasonal phenomena. Mid January margins are also under those of the preceding two years, leaving less cushion for soybean prices going into the peak of the South American soybean harvest in February through April. Midwest Soybean Processing Read more
USDA cut the estimate of the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop by four million tonnes this month due to dry weather early in the production cycle. Late rains appear to have stabilized Brazilian 2024 soybean production prospects. The accompanying chart displays the Brazilian soybean soybean crop estimate published by USDA in Read more
This month the USDA forecast the 2023/24 crop year US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or about 7% of crop year usage. Based on the soybean inflation adjusted price-carryout function over the last 50 years, a carryout of 280 million bushels would result in a projected January – May Read more
USDA cut the 2024 soybean production forecast due to warmer and drier weather in the Northern row crop areas. It would be unusual if USDA would reduce the production estimate again as there is a strong El Nino event underway which historically has brought favorable conditions for Brazill’s farmers. The Read more
Last month USDA forecast the season 2023/2024 average price for deliverable soybean oil at $61 per hundredweight compared to $69 last season and $65 in September 2021/August 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter/spring high and low for deliverable soybean oil as a function of the USDA’s November season Read more
Historically, the November/September soybean spread has been closely correlated with the expected US soybean carryout (September 1 stocks). In the November WASDE report USDA forecast the 2024 US soybean carryout at 245 million bushels or just short of 6% of crop year usage. In recent years a carryout of less Read more
Historically the price range for March soybean meal has been associated with the US soybean supply usage balance and export demand for soybean meal. We have derived two equations expressing the price range for March Soybean meal as a function of US soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio Read more
USDA has forecast 2023/24 crop year soybean exports at 1.775 billion bushels which is at the low end of recent year’s exports. The expectation of a large South American Soybean crop (to be harvested during the early Northern Hemisphere spring) will likely reduce demand for US soybeans. US soybean 2023/24 Read more
In the October 2023 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage which is close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter high and low for March soybeans as a function of the Read more