July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal Read more…
Midwest farmer simulated budgets suggest soybeans hold an economic advantage over corn at midwinter prices although a soybean enterprise is only modestly more profitable per acre than corn. Utilizing data from the last thirty years, the current corn/soybean price ratio results in the forecast for US soybean planted area of Read more…
USDA boosted the 2024 projection for Argentine soybean production to 50 million metric tons, up two million tonnes from the December forecast and double the very small 2023 soybean crop of just 25 million tonnes. Argentina has an outsized impact on the world soybean meal market because domestic consumption is Read more…
Midwest soybean processing margins have declined since the end of harvest, a normal seasonal phenomena. Mid January margins are also under those of the preceding two years, leaving less cushion for soybean prices going into the peak of the South American soybean harvest in February through April. Midwest Soybean Processing Read more…
USDA cut the estimate of the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop by four million tonnes this month due to dry weather early in the production cycle. Late rains appear to have stabilized Brazilian 2024 soybean production prospects. The accompanying chart displays the Brazilian soybean soybean crop estimate published by USDA in Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the 2023/24 crop year US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or about 7% of crop year usage. Based on the soybean inflation adjusted price-carryout function over the last 50 years, a carryout of 280 million bushels would result in a projected January – May Read more…
USDA cut the 2024 soybean production forecast due to warmer and drier weather in the Northern row crop areas. It would be unusual if USDA would reduce the production estimate again as there is a strong El Nino event underway which historically has brought favorable conditions for Brazill’s farmers. The Read more…
Last month USDA forecast the season 2023/2024 average price for deliverable soybean oil at $61 per hundredweight compared to $69 last season and $65 in September 2021/August 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter/spring high and low for deliverable soybean oil as a function of the USDA’s November season Read more…
Historically, the November/September soybean spread has been closely correlated with the expected US soybean carryout (September 1 stocks). In the November WASDE report USDA forecast the 2024 US soybean carryout at 245 million bushels or just short of 6% of crop year usage. In recent years a carryout of less Read more…
Historically the price range for March soybean meal has been associated with the US soybean supply usage balance and export demand for soybean meal. We have derived two equations expressing the price range for March Soybean meal as a function of US soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio Read more…
USDA has forecast 2023/24 crop year soybean exports at 1.775 billion bushels which is at the low end of recent year’s exports. The expectation of a large South American Soybean crop (to be harvested during the early Northern Hemisphere spring) will likely reduce demand for US soybeans. US soybean 2023/24 Read more…
In the October 2023 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage which is close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter high and low for March soybeans as a function of the Read more…
The USDA tightened the US soybean usage balance estimate modestly this month by reducing the soybean production estimate based on the October survey.We have reproduced the USDA’s October WASDE report and included scatter studies with the winter high and low for deliverable soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more…
US soybean export sales for 2023/2024 delivery are on the low side of recent history. Soybean importers are likely anticipating a large Southern Hemisphere soybean crop to fill February through August 2024 needs. The current strong El Nino reduces the risk of drought damaging the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop which Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 crop year US soybean carryover at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage. Historically the harvest low price for November soybeans has been correlated with the new crop carryover to usage ratio. The USDA’s current US soybean S/D would suggest a low Read more…
USDA dropped the US soybean national average yield to 50 bushels per harvested acre compared the trendline July forecast of 52 bushels. The yield downgrade was in line with sub average weekly USDA crop reports. In the years 1965 through 2022 the August yield estimate has had a 94% correlation Read more…
USDA crop observers rated 52% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 30, 2023 which is down from the 52% with the same rating a week earlier. Historical data suggests an August estimate for the US national average soybean yield of 49 bushels/harvested acre compared Read more…
December soybean meal could have significant upside potential based USDA’s current USDA new crop soybean supply/usage balance and July livestock projections The harvest price forecasts for December soybean meal, based on the US soybean carryout to usage ratio and the livestock price index (LPI). The US soybean S/D & livestock Read more…
USDA cut the 2023/2024 US soybean carryout projection by 50 million bushels this month because of a smaller planted acre estimate published in June Acreage Survey report. USDA stayed with a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. As we indicated in a previous post, the Read more…
USDA soybean crop condition: The USDA rated 55% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 16, 2023. This is a significant improvement over the previous week’s crop reports, which showed 51% of the crop in good or excellent condition. The improvement in crop condition is Read more…