US unshipped soybean export commitments totaled 242 million bushels in Mid March, an improvement compared to a year ago, but on the small side compared to most recent years. Importers, especially China, expect plentiful South American supplies from the 2025 soybean crop now being harvested. However, US soybean product sales Read more
USDA estimates the 2025 South American soybean crop at 8.7 billion bushels, up from 8.1 billion bushels a year ago. The South American soybean harvest is now under way. USDA projects South American soybean net exports will increase modestly in the 2024/25 crop year with crush and carryout stocks both Read more
We estimate March 1 US soybean stocks at 1.95 billion bushels compared to 1.85 billion bushels a year earlier. The US soybean crush level ran at a record pace this winter helped by strong soybean meal export demand. Soybean exports exceeded the previous year but will drop off sharply this Read more
USDA did not make any changes to the 2024/25 US soybean balance table this month. USDA did revise down the 2025 Argentine soybean crop by three million tonnes but left the Brazilian crop unchanged. The aggregate South American (Brazil, Argentina & Paraguay) 2025 soybean crop (harvest of which will run Read more
USDA will provide any revisions it feels needed to the 2025 South American soybean crop estimates in the next WASDE report. Recent crop estimates other than USDA suggest the Argentine crop potential is declining while the Brazilian crop could exceed the USDA’s January forecast. The South American aggregate production could Read more
This month USDA forecast the 2024/25 crop year average price for soybean oil at $43/hundredweight compared to $48 last season. On 01/17/2025 July 2025 soybean oil closed at $47. We have included price range data for July soybean oil as a function of USDA’s January price forecast. The USDA’s $43 Read more
Historically US soybean meal prices have been tightly correlated with 1) the livestock price index and 2) the US soybean supply usage balance as represented by the ratio of the US carryout stocks to the crop year US soybean usage ratio. This month USDA forecast the 2025 US soybean carryout Read more
USDA tightened up the forecast for the US soybean supply/usage outlook this month dropping the US soybean yield estimate for the 2024 season and cutting the 2025 US soybean carryout. US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Percent Area Planted 87.2 87.5 83.6 87.1 4% Area Read more
The soybean/corn price ratio has fallen well below the past 30-year average so far this crop year. The price ratio is the primary determinant of changes in soybean planted area. The current ratio suggests a two million acre decline in soybean area in 2025. We use the October/March 15 soybean Read more
The South American soybean crop is now forecast at 235 million tonnes compared to 214 million tonnes a year ago. We have combined USDA data with private forecasts to derive our 2025 projection. The 2024 US soybean crop totaled only 121 million tonnes. China is expected to import 109 million Read more
Historically the November – July soybean spread has been associated with the US old crop soybean carryout. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter spread range data as a function of USDA’s winter assessment of the US old crop supply/usage balance. This month (December 2024) USDA projected the 2024/25 US Read more
USDA projected a nearly 20% cut in the average price of soybean meal during the 2024/2025 crop year. Stiff competition from Southern Hemisphere soybean producers accounts for the bearish outlook for soybean meal despite the prospect for very strong usage in 2024/25. The soybean planted area and production is expected Read more
NOAA has forecast La Nina conditions for the western Pacific for the northern hemisphere autumn of 2024. We picked out the five years with strong La Nina conditions, as defined by NOAA, and examined the Brazilian soybean crop outcome compared to trend. In one crop year, 2011/2012, yield was sharply Read more
USDA made only a slight revision in the US soybean 2024 soybean production estimate this month and retained a 550 million bushel projection for the 2024/25 US soybean carryout. We have computed correlation and standard error estimates for three major components of the balance table, production crush and exports, based Read more
Last month USDA forecast an average farm level soybean price at $10.80 $/bushel for the 2024/2025 crop year. Based on recent history, the USDA’s $10.80 projection would translate to a price range for the May soybean futures contract of $9.90 to $12.86. The model statistics are displayed in the table. Read more
Only if the 2024/25 (Northern Hemisphere spring 2025 harvest) South American soybean crop falls significantly short of the USDA’s September 2024 forecast. The accompanying scatter studies display the high/low price range for March soybean meal as a function of the new crop US soybean carryover to crop year usage ratio. Read more
Soybean futures contracts are likely to dip to levels last seen in 2020 if US soybean carryout stocks build to the level forecast in the September 2024 WASDE report. The Bear case for soybeans is dependent on the assumption of a very large South American soybean crop, for which field Read more
US Midwest farmers have enjoyed favorable weather this summer reflected in USDA’s projected record national average soybean yield. USDA also expects strong new crop US demand, but expected usage still well fall short of supplies leaving an expected buildup in US soybean stocks during the 2024/2025 crop year. US Soybean Read more
Cash soybean processing margins remain wider than most years prior to 2023. Cheap soybeans account for Midwest soybean processor favorable returns as meal is trading well below the two previous years and oil is little more than half the value brought in early August if the years 2021 through 2023. Read more
USDA rated 67% of the US soybean crop as in good or excellent condition on July 28, 2024 which is in the top 25% of soybean crop ratings for the same week over the past 35+ years. This week’s rating suggests a US national average soybean yield of 52.4 bushels Read more