The South American soybean crop is now forecast at 235 million tonnes compared to 214 million tonnes a year ago. We have combined USDA data with private forecasts to derive our 2025 projection. The 2024 US soybean crop totaled only 121 million tonnes. China is expected to import 109 million Read more…
Historically the November – July soybean spread has been associated with the US old crop soybean carryout. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter spread range data as a function of USDA’s winter assessment of the US old crop supply/usage balance. This month (December 2024) USDA projected the 2024/25 US Read more…
USDA projected a nearly 20% cut in the average price of soybean meal during the 2024/2025 crop year. Stiff competition from Southern Hemisphere soybean producers accounts for the bearish outlook for soybean meal despite the prospect for very strong usage in 2024/25. The soybean planted area and production is expected Read more…
NOAA has forecast La Nina conditions for the western Pacific for the northern hemisphere autumn of 2024. We picked out the five years with strong La Nina conditions, as defined by NOAA, and examined the Brazilian soybean crop outcome compared to trend. In one crop year, 2011/2012, yield was sharply Read more…
USDA made only a slight revision in the US soybean 2024 soybean production estimate this month and retained a 550 million bushel projection for the 2024/25 US soybean carryout. We have computed correlation and standard error estimates for three major components of the balance table, production crush and exports, based Read more…
Last month USDA forecast an average farm level soybean price at $10.80 $/bushel for the 2024/2025 crop year. Based on recent history, the USDA’s $10.80 projection would translate to a price range for the May soybean futures contract of $9.90 to $12.86. The model statistics are displayed in the table. Read more…
Only if the 2024/25 (Northern Hemisphere spring 2025 harvest) South American soybean crop falls significantly short of the USDA’s September 2024 forecast. The accompanying scatter studies display the high/low price range for March soybean meal as a function of the new crop US soybean carryover to crop year usage ratio. Read more…
Soybean futures contracts are likely to dip to levels last seen in 2020 if US soybean carryout stocks build to the level forecast in the September 2024 WASDE report. The Bear case for soybeans is dependent on the assumption of a very large South American soybean crop, for which field Read more…
US Midwest farmers have enjoyed favorable weather this summer reflected in USDA’s projected record national average soybean yield. USDA also expects strong new crop US demand, but expected usage still well fall short of supplies leaving an expected buildup in US soybean stocks during the 2024/2025 crop year. US Soybean Read more…
Cash soybean processing margins remain wider than most years prior to 2023. Cheap soybeans account for Midwest soybean processor favorable returns as meal is trading well below the two previous years and oil is little more than half the value brought in early August if the years 2021 through 2023. Read more…
USDA rated 67% of the US soybean crop as in good or excellent condition on July 28, 2024 which is in the top 25% of soybean crop ratings for the same week over the past 35+ years. This week’s rating suggests a US national average soybean yield of 52.4 bushels Read more…
USDA rated 68% of the US soybean acreage in good or excellent condition as of July 7, 2024. The July 7 index was 12% better than the previous 38-year average for early July, and a yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre which is fractionally greater than the record US Read more…
USDA’ June acreage survey found US farmers planting 86 million acres of soybeans in 2024. The June survey is 400 thousand acres less than the March survey forecast, but still greater than the US soybean area in 2023. The modest reduction in soybean acres from March reduces the expected new Read more…
This month the USDA forecast an increase in new crop (2024/2025) US soybean carryout stocks. For the next two months the key to possible changes in the soybean supply/usage balance is weather and the impact on yield. This month USDA assumed a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per Read more…
USDA made only modest changes in the US soybean supply/usage forecasts this month’s WASDE report. The old crop US soybean crush estimate was reduced by 10 million bushels which carried through to a 10 million bushel increase in old crop and new crop carryout stocks. USDA expects an increase Read more…
The USDA’s May 10th report projected an increase in soybean supplies and ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. This is due to both higher expected production and larger beginning stocks. Despite a projected rise in domestic soybean crushing, stockpiles are still expected to climb to 445 million bushels, pushing Read more…
December soybean meal is trading on the low side of livestock prices based on the last 50 years of historical data. We have charted the June/August price range for December soybean meal divided by the livestock price index published by the USDA. The point for 2024 is calculated using the Read more…
New crop US soybean sales totaled only 17 million bushels on April 11 which is the smallest total for that date since the 2002/2003 crop year. Export traders prefer to depend on South American soybean supplies as the huge 2024 in Brazil and Argentina crop will last well into the Read more…
USDA’s March Planting Intentions Survey found US farmers planning to plant 87 million acres to soybeans this spring, a 3 million acre increase from planted area a year ago. Soybeans appear set to take available US farmland primarily at the expense of corn cultivation. US soybean area forecast from the Read more…
July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal Read more…