Livestock

We estimate the US cattle inventory on January 1 at 94.8 million head which is up marginally from the past three years. Cattle numbers have been relatively stable over the past few years breaking, at least temporarily, from the inventory cycle that prevailed through most of the post WWII period. Read more

The December hog survey suggests barrow and gilt slaughter will decline modestly this quarter compared to a year ago. Slaughter is likely to overrun the year earlier level this spring as last year’s data was distorted by the Covid 19 problem. On a longer historical prospective deliverable hogs are trading Read more

The USDA is scheduled to release the November Cattle of Feed data December 18, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 12.2 million head which is up 1% from 12 million head a year ago and a record high by a small margin for the date. Beef demand has Read more

We estimate the  US hog Inventory on December 1 at 76 million head, down from 78 million  on September 1, 2020 and 79 million head a year ago. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck  with plans expressed in the September, 2020  farrowing survey. The December Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled Read more

Cattle on feed November 1 hit the highest level since 2008 but October feedlot  placements were at the low end of recent history. Finished cattle marketings in October were at the high end of recent history. Finished cattle supplies are expected to remain adequate to slightly surplus through the late Read more

In the November WAOB report USDA forecast finished Midwest steers would average $114 in 2021 which is about the same as an average of cattle futures prices on 11/17/2020. The accompanying scatter study displays the annual average live steer price as a function of the USDA’s November (previous year) forecast. Read more

The accompanying scatter study displays January/March deliverable hog prices as a function of the domestic pork supply per capita in the same quarter. The data released in the November 2020 WAOB report suggest a per capita pork supply of 16.8 pounds which is slightly smaller than a year ago. February Read more

The accompanying scatter studies display the first and second quarter average Midwest steer price as a function of per capita domestic beef supply. The points plotted USDA  are based on data in the November 2020 WAOB report. The February and April futures contracts are trading between $3.00 and $6.00 premium Read more

We estimate cattle on feed November 1 . 2020 at over 12 million head which would be a record for the date. Ample finished cattle supplies could keep a lid on cattle prices despite bull markets in the grains and oilseed pits.    

USDA reported the number of cattle on feed October   1 increased 4% from a year ago and was record high for the date. Cattle marketings, placements, and non fed steer-heifer slaughter all returned to normal activity after the disruption in the spring. Cattle supplies for slaughter will be adequate Read more

The USDA is scheduled to release the September Cattle of Feed data October 23, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.6 million head which is up 3% from a year ago and a record high for the date. The supply of finished cattle projects to be adequate to Read more

The USDA provided quarterly Pork production and demand  estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic Pork supply for the period October 2020  through September 2021 and averaged the current futures price quotes for the same period  Read more

The USDA provided quarterly beef production and price  estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic beef supply for the period October 2020  through September 2021 and averaged the price forecasts for the same period The accompanying Read more

The accompanying charts depict commercial hog slaughter during the October/December 2020 and January/March 2021 quarters with forecasts based on the original pig crop data for May/March and June/August quarters. The model statistics are included in the charts. Just a few days into the quarter autumn slaughter was running very close Read more

The  USDA estimated the March/August 2020  pig crop at 70 million head which was down 1% from a year earlier. Based on the pig crop and projected imports we forecast the October 2020/March 2021 at 66 million head which is about equal to the year ago level.  We have also Read more

The USDA is scheduled to release the August Cattle of Feed data September 25, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.2 million head which is up 2% from 11 million head a year ago and a record high for the date.  The supply of finished cattle projects to Read more

We estimate all hogs and pigs in the U.S. on September 1 at 78 million head, down 1% from a year ago but still large relative to  years prior to 2019. The September 1 estimate contrasts sharply with the June 2020  inventory which was up 5% from data for 2019. Read more

USDA expects domestic beef supplies to increase on a per capita basis during the first half of 2021 compared to the artificially constrained January/July supply. USDA has Deliverable steers trading at an average $107 in the first half of 2021 which falls directly on the regression line displayed in the Read more

USDA cut the 2020 and 2021 pork production estimates modestly this month but production remains on the trend established over the last thirty years. The export market is expected to be strong over the next year and a half.   Deliverable hogs could average near $70 in the October/December period.

The August 2020 WAOB report forecast 4th qt. Domestic per capita pork supply at 17.3 pounds compared to 17.7 pounds in the same period a year ago. The accompanying scatter study displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of  per capita supply. Note that December hogs are trading Read more