Hog Market
The USDA is scheduled to release the August Cattle of Feed data September 25, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.2 million head which is up 2% from 11 million head a year ago and a record high for the date. The supply of finished cattle projects to Read more…
We estimate all hogs and pigs in the U.S. on September 1 at 78 million head, down 1% from a year ago but still large relative to years prior to 2019. The September 1 estimate contrasts sharply with the June 2020 inventory which was up 5% from data for 2019. Read more…
USDA expects domestic beef supplies to increase on a per capita basis during the first half of 2021 compared to the artificially constrained January/July supply. USDA has Deliverable steers trading at an average $107 in the first half of 2021 which falls directly on the regression line displayed in the Read more…
USDA cut the 2020 and 2021 pork production estimates modestly this month but production remains on the trend established over the last thirty years. The export market is expected to be strong over the next year and a half. Deliverable hogs could average near $70 in the October/December period.
The August 2020 WAOB report forecast 4th qt. Domestic per capita pork supply at 17.3 pounds compared to 17.7 pounds in the same period a year ago. The accompanying scatter study displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of per capita supply. Note that December hogs are trading Read more…
The accompanying scatter displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of the October-December domestic pork supply. The point labeled 2020 is based on the August 2020 WAOB report and current December hog futures. Hogs are currently trading below the regression line but within the standard error of the Read more…
USDA expects pork production to recover through the remainder of 2020 and also increase modestly in 2021.Pork exports will continue to be a major supporting force in the hog market.
The USDA has forecast Midwest steers in the 4th quarter will average $105/CWT. compared to $113 last fall and December 2020 futures of $112 trading on 8/4/2020. The accompanying scatter displays the price of finished steers as a function of the 4th quarter domestic beef supply on a per person Read more…
We calculate the July 1 cattle inventory at 109 million head which is about the same as the last two years.The USDA is scheduled to release the U.S. Cattle report on July 24, 2020. July through December commercial cattle slaughter will likely increase modestly compared to a year ago. Note Read more…
We estimate cattle on feed July 1 down about 2% from the previous year. The first scatter study plots third quarter beef production as a function of the number of cattle on feed July 1. Our second scatter plots the third quarter average Midwest steer price as a function of Read more…
The USDA estimated the U.S hog inventory on June 1 at almost 80 million head a record for the date. We have plotted the June hog inventory plus net live hog imports compared to the commercial hog slaughter in the following June/November period. Note the big increase in finished hog Read more…
USDA increased the 2020 U.S. beef production estimate this month after a sharp reduction in the WAOB May estimate. The beef industry has recovered more quickly the USDA had anticipated last spring. The accompanying scatter study displays the price of Midwest finished steers as a function of the July Read more…
The USDA has forecast an increase in pork production in 2021 compared to the artificially limited slaughter of 2020. Hog slaughter is making a steady increase compared to the dip in April and May when many plants were closed due Covid 19. USDA dropped the 2020 pork export estimate in Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the April Cattle of Feed data May 22, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11 million head which is down from 11.8 million head a year ago. Although fewer cattle were on hand the inventory likely is made up of a larger Read more…
The USDA cut the 2020 Pork production estimate this month the result of plant closures as finished hog supplies remain plentiful. Hog processing appears to have turned the corner suggesting USDA’s production cut for 2020 could prove overly pessimistic. The USDA has forecast a trend increase in pork Read more…
USDA cut the 2020 US beef production estimate through the summer because of processing plant closures. The chart shows the changes on an annual basis. In April and the first half of May beef production dropped roughly 20% because of plant closures. But the number of cattle being processed Read more…
Hog futures prices have been on the uptrend the past week as traders anticipate huge margins will induce the reopening of pork processing plants. Hog futures prices remain well behind the pork cutout value, but that gap will close rapidly with the resumption of processing work.
U.S. pork export sales remain strong with roughly two thirds of the year over year increase attributed to China. Export sales are squeezing out domestic consumers as about 40 percent of the pork processing capacity is closed due to the Covid 19 virus. There will be plenty of hogs Read more…
The urgency of getting beef packing plants back on line is illustrated by graphing packer margins over the past few months. The beef industry will become increasingly distorted if farmers and ranchers are not allowed access to now shuttered packing plants. Live cattle futures will get a lift when Read more…
Our calculations suggest a feeder cattle supply on April 1 of 20.2 million head compared to 19.7 million head a year ago. Historically the feeder cattle supply has proved a useful barometer of feeder prices in the May July period. The last August feeder quotes on Friday (4/24/20) were very Read more…