Livestock

In the September WAOB report the USDA forecast 4th quarter finished steers (Nebraska) would average $131/hundredweight compared the current October  futures quote near $122 and December futures of $127. The accompanying scatter study displays the October/December average price for finished steers as a function of domestic per capita beef supply Read more…

The number of hogs and pigs on US farms September 1 may have equaled the inventory a year ago despite a smaller summer pig crop. A sharp drop in slaughter last quarter and a surge in imports likely kept hog numbers close to that of a year ago.  The 2021 Read more…

The US feeder cattle supply on July 1, 2021  totaled 36.7 million head compared to 36.7 million head a year ago based on the July 2021 cattle report. The accompanying scatter chart plots the July/December average price for deliverable feeder steers (650 -900 # ) as a function of the Read more…

The US cattle inventory may have declined about one million head in the year ending June 30, 2021 based on data available in early July. Keeping feedlots full over the next six months will be more difficult if ranchers withhold additional heifers for breeding  as seems necessary to build back  Read more…

USDA reported the June 1 US hog inventory at 75.7 million head compared to 77.4 million head a year ago. The March/May pig crop was down 3% as the number of sows farrowing declined slightly less than 3% and the number of pigs saved per litter declined marginally. It appears Read more…

In the June 2021 WAOB report USDA forecast Midwest Steers would average $118 in the July 2021 through December 2021 period. The accompanying scatter study plots Midwest finished steers as a function of per  capita domestic beef supply. We have plotted the current average futures price for finished cattle or Read more…

The US hog inventory on June 1 declined about 6% year over year based on data available in early June. Hog prices exceeded $100/cwt last quarter but just kept up with corn values leaving hog production profitability slightly under the last five years.        2021 US balance based on Read more…

In the May 2021 WAOB report the USDA forecast a modest decline in per capita domestic pork supply in the last half of 2021. Last half of 2021 lean hog futures are trading at substantial premium to historical economic value as is illustrated in the accompanying scatter study. Traders may Read more…

USDA expects a modest cut in domestic beef supplies per capita in 2021 and 2022. The accompanying scatter study displays Midwest finished steer values as a function of domestic per capita beef supply. USDA estimates steers at  $116 in 2021 and $122 in 2022. Futures quotes for the same period Read more…

USDA has increased the US beef production estimate in each of the last four months. Feedlot managers have operated at a higher percentage of capacity since last autumn than might be expected considering the cost of feed and the number of feeder cattle available. But an increase in net beef Read more…

We estimate cattle on feed April 1 at 11.7 million head, down from 12 million head a month earlier but still ahead of 11.3 million head a year ago. Our April 1 estimate assumes March marketings jumped to 2.05 million head versus 2.01 million head  a year ago while placements Read more…

USDA reported the number of market hogs on US farms March 1, 2021 totaled  69 million head which was down one million head or 2% from a year ago. As  might be expected virtually all of the variation in March September  barrow and gilt slaughter is associated with the number Read more…

USDA reported a near record 12 million head of cattle on feed March 1. February placements declined 2% from the previous year while feedlot marketings also declined 2% year over year. The accompanying scatter study displays spring finished cattle prices as a function of the domestic beef supply per capita. Read more…

We estimate the number of cattle on feed March 1 at 12 million head, up fractionally from the record established for the date  in 2006. Placements may have dropped one percent in February while we estimate marketings declined 6 percent year over year. Ample fed cattle supplies will likely weigh Read more…

The USDA estimated cattle on feed February 1, 2021 at 12.1 million head, about equal to the record established in 2006. Placements increased in January compared to a year ago. Finished cattle marketings fell short of the year earlier level last month. Non fed cattle slaughter fell sharply in January. Read more…

USDA increased the 2021 US .beef production estimate this month. A record number of cattle on feed compared to the total cattle inventory may have prompted the increase. We have scattered   Midwest finished steer prices against the domestic per capita beef supply for the April/June period. Note that current Read more…

The USDA estimated the number of steers and heifers on January 1 at 12.2  million head which is slightly larger than the year earlier level. The number of steers and heifers sent to market during the first half of 2021 will likely exceed the 2020 level as cattle sales last Read more…

The USDA estimated the feeder cattle supply  over 500 pounds on January 1, 2021 at 11.5 million head which is about equal to the year earlier tally. We have scattered the average feeder cattle price during the first quarter of the year as a function of the feeder supply.  Note Read more…

The prosperity grain producers have enjoyed since harvest has squeezed hog producers financial balance. Hog prices have lost on both major costs of operation, corn and soybean meal. We have plotted the hog/corn and hog/soybean meal ratios for the winter quarter and both ratios are near or at 25-year lows.  Read more…