Livestock

The USDA estimated cattle on feed February 1, 2021 at 12.1 million head, about equal to the record established in 2006. Placements increased in January compared to a year ago. Finished cattle marketings fell short of the year earlier level last month. Non fed cattle slaughter fell sharply in January. Read more…

USDA increased the 2021 US .beef production estimate this month. A record number of cattle on feed compared to the total cattle inventory may have prompted the increase. We have scattered   Midwest finished steer prices against the domestic per capita beef supply for the April/June period. Note that current Read more…

The USDA estimated the number of steers and heifers on January 1 at 12.2  million head which is slightly larger than the year earlier level. The number of steers and heifers sent to market during the first half of 2021 will likely exceed the 2020 level as cattle sales last Read more…

The USDA estimated the feeder cattle supply  over 500 pounds on January 1, 2021 at 11.5 million head which is about equal to the year earlier tally. We have scattered the average feeder cattle price during the first quarter of the year as a function of the feeder supply.  Note Read more…

The prosperity grain producers have enjoyed since harvest has squeezed hog producers financial balance. Hog prices have lost on both major costs of operation, corn and soybean meal. We have plotted the hog/corn and hog/soybean meal ratios for the winter quarter and both ratios are near or at 25-year lows.  Read more…

We estimate the US cattle inventory on January 1 at 94.8 million head which is up marginally from the past three years. Cattle numbers have been relatively stable over the past few years breaking, at least temporarily, from the inventory cycle that prevailed through most of the post WWII period. Read more…

The December hog survey suggests barrow and gilt slaughter will decline modestly this quarter compared to a year ago. Slaughter is likely to overrun the year earlier level this spring as last year’s data was distorted by the Covid 19 problem. On a longer historical prospective deliverable hogs are trading Read more…

The USDA is scheduled to release the November Cattle of Feed data December 18, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 12.2 million head which is up 1% from 12 million head a year ago and a record high by a small margin for the date. Beef demand has Read more…

We estimate the  US hog Inventory on December 1 at 76 million head, down from 78 million  on September 1, 2020 and 79 million head a year ago. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck  with plans expressed in the September, 2020  farrowing survey. The December Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled Read more…

Cattle on feed November 1 hit the highest level since 2008 but October feedlot  placements were at the low end of recent history. Finished cattle marketings in October were at the high end of recent history. Finished cattle supplies are expected to remain adequate to slightly surplus through the late Read more…

In the November WAOB report USDA forecast finished Midwest steers would average $114 in 2021 which is about the same as an average of cattle futures prices on 11/17/2020. The accompanying scatter study displays the annual average live steer price as a function of the USDA’s November (previous year) forecast. Read more…

The accompanying scatter study displays January/March deliverable hog prices as a function of the domestic pork supply per capita in the same quarter. The data released in the November 2020 WAOB report suggest a per capita pork supply of 16.8 pounds which is slightly smaller than a year ago. February Read more…

The accompanying scatter studies display the first and second quarter average Midwest steer price as a function of per capita domestic beef supply. The points plotted USDA  are based on data in the November 2020 WAOB report. The February and April futures contracts are trading between $3.00 and $6.00 premium Read more…

We estimate cattle on feed November 1 . 2020 at over 12 million head which would be a record for the date. Ample finished cattle supplies could keep a lid on cattle prices despite bull markets in the grains and oilseed pits.    

USDA reported the number of cattle on feed October   1 increased 4% from a year ago and was record high for the date. Cattle marketings, placements, and non fed steer-heifer slaughter all returned to normal activity after the disruption in the spring. Cattle supplies for slaughter will be adequate Read more…

The USDA is scheduled to release the September Cattle of Feed data October 23, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11.6 million head which is up 3% from a year ago and a record high for the date. The supply of finished cattle projects to be adequate to Read more…

The USDA provided quarterly Pork production and demand  estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic Pork supply for the period October 2020  through September 2021 and averaged the current futures price quotes for the same period  Read more…

The USDA provided quarterly beef production and price  estimates for the next year in the October WAOB report. We have expressed the aggregate supply estimates as per capita domestic beef supply for the period October 2020  through September 2021 and averaged the price forecasts for the same period The accompanying Read more…

The accompanying charts depict commercial hog slaughter during the October/December 2020 and January/March 2021 quarters with forecasts based on the original pig crop data for May/March and June/August quarters. The model statistics are included in the charts. Just a few days into the quarter autumn slaughter was running very close Read more…