Hog Market
USDA has steadily lowered US pork production estimates for 2022 since trend projections were published last spring. US pork production in 2022 is expected to fall short of year earlier level, but most of the decline occurred in the first quarter of the year with April December pork output about Read more…
We calculate the March 1,2022 US hog inventory at 73.8 million head, down slightly from a year ago. Our balance table assumes that farmers followed through with the December/February farrowing intentions expressed in the December 2022 survey and that the number of pigs saved per litter will follow the long Read more…
The USDA reported the number of cattle on feed last month was a record level for a February 1 while January net cattle placements declined two percent year over year. January finished cattle marketings declined three percent compared to the same month in 2021.. The January data suggest finished cattle Read more…
Cattle futures prices are trading $8.00 premium to the USDA’s February forecast for finished steers through the end of 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the historic high and low monthly average for Midwest finished steers as a function of domestic per capita beef supply. Note that the USDA forecast Read more…
The USDA’s January 1 US Cattle Inventory survey resulted in calculated feeder cattle supply of 25.5 million head, down 700 thousand head from a year ago. The accompanying table displays the derivation of the January 1 feeder supply. We have prepared a scatter study displaying the average feeder price (650-750 Read more…
Fat cattle prices (basis the Midwest) are trading very close to the USDA first quarter forecast of $139/hundredweight. USDA has the live cattle value trading the low to mid $130’s range through the late summer then advancing into the Autumn. The cattle futures market is trading premium to the USDA Read more…
Fat cattle marketings are likely to drop below the year earlier level during the first half of 2022. Our forecast is based on feeder cattle placements in the last half of 2021.
The long term downward trend in the US cattle inventory likely continued during the second half of 2021. We estimate the US cattle herd on January 1, 2022 totaled 92 million head compared to 93.6 million head at the same time a year ago. The accompanying table and chart display Read more…
USDA reported year over year increases in both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings last month. Based on cattle on feed data we project a 4% drop in fat cattle sales during the December 2021 through May 2022 period.
The USDA reported a 5% year over year drop in the number of hogs kept for market on December 1, 2021. Based on original historical data the reported inventory would result in a January/June 2022 FIS barrow and gilt slaughter of slightly less than 60 million head, the least since Read more…
Finished cattle prices have risen sharply over the last year, but cattle feedlot profitability has been eroded by rising feed costs. The finished steer/corn price ratio currently is about the same as in mid December 2020. Feeder cattle replacement cost has increased 20% over the last year. As a result Read more…
We forecast winter B&G slaughter at 31.6 million head which would be down 8% from the previous year. Our estimate is based on original pig crop data supplied by USDA in September. Pork demand in early 2022 will shift to the right because of the lack of Chinese pork import Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1, 2021 at 74 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2017. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted the upswing in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2021 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots on November 1, 2021 was down fractionally from a year ago. Finished cattle sales declined last month while October 2021 feeder cattle placements increased from levels in the corresponding month in 2020. Our model has finished cattle marketings in the November Read more…
One factor that has supported finished cattle prices in recent months has been a sharp increase in the value of by-products (principally hides). The beef by product value has increased $20+ /cwt over the last 18 months boosting live cattle prices to $10+ higher levels than would be expected from Read more…
The USDA forecast the domestic per capita pork supply in 2022 at 49.9 pounds compared to the 50.7 pound estimate for 2021. High grain prices could stall an upturn in the hog cycle for the next calendar year. The December Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release on December 23,2021 Read more…
USDA reported cattle on feed October 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the October 2021 through March 2022 period will fall fractionally from the same period in 2020/2021.
The USDA has forecast a two pound drop in the domestic per capita beef supply in 2022. Beef production is forecast to drop three percent next year compared to production in 2021. Net beef exports are forecast to decline 100 million pounds in 2022 as foreign buyers are squeezed out Read more…
The August Cattle on Feed report suggests a one percent increase in fed cattle marketings over the next six months to a record 11 million head. Plentiful fed beef supplies will be one factor holding cattle futures prices in check this Autumn.
The supply of market hogs available for slaughter this autumn and winter will drop 3% to 4% based on the September Hogs and Pigs report released on 9/24/2021. Our October March slaughter estimate also assumes a 5% increase in live hog imports.