Livestock

We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2022 Hogs and Pigs report Read more

Feeder cattle placements continued a long term downtrend in November while finished cattle sales increased 1% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The balance left November 1 US cattle on feed at the lowest level in four years. US prospective beef supplies will need to be Read more

This month USDA forecast the US domestic pork supply would increase 2% year over year in the First quarter of 2023. The accompanying table displays the forecast price range for February hogs based on alternative pork supply  assumptions relative to USDA”s  November projection. For example if supply matches USDA’ estimate Read more

USDA has projected a fractional year over year increase in US pork production in 2023 and a modest decline in net pork exports. The USDA’s current forecasts suggest a modest increase in the domestic per capita pork supply n 2023  which is a key variable in the April lean hog Read more

USDA reported the US hog herd was one million head fewer on September 1 2022, than one year ago and the fourth down year of the current hog inventory cycle. Market hogs on September 1 were off 1% an fraction  suggesting a similar decline in commercial hog processing over the Read more

US hog numbers likely declined over the summer to 74 million head on September 1 compared to 75 million head a year ago. High feed costs have kept hog production on the decline since the last hog cycle peak in 2019. Record high hog returns at farm level this summer Read more

Cattle feedlot managers sharply curtailed feeder cattle placements last month while increasing finished cattle sales. The number of cattle on feed July 1 remained fractionally larger than a year ago. High feed costs have discouraged cattle placements this year despite finished cattle returns in the upper end of the recent Read more

USDA reported the nation’s hog herd was down 1% on a year over year basis on June 1. Hog producers have not shown much inclination to expand production despite record finished hog prices at farm level. High feed costs have reduced hog production profitability.  We calculate potential hog slaughter  for Read more

Feedlots placed fewer feeder cattle than finished cattle marketed last month, but total cattle on feed June 1 still exceeded that of any previous year. We project finished cattle sales in the June/December 2022 period will increase 2% on a year over year basis. A normal seasonal July/December price range Read more

This month the USDA forecast the domestic per capita beef supply in the second half of 2022 would total 41 pound, down from 42 pounds a year ago. We have scattered the second half price range for December cattle as a function of per capita beef supply. For 2022 we Read more

Feeder cattle prices could have considerable upside potential this summer, but only if farmers harvest a crop at least as large and preferably larger than USDA currently forecasts. As a residual claimant feeder cattle values closely follow feed grain values (negative) and finished cattle prices in a positive direction.  Since Read more

We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head  year over  year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020.  Hog Balance Mar/May Million head 2020 2021 2022 March 1 75.2 73.9 72.2 Pig crop Read more

USDA reported cattle on feed May 1,2022 exceeded the year earlier level by 2% based on a 1% year over year decline in placements last month and a 2% reduction in marketings in April 2022. Analysis of historical data suggest placements over the last eight months would project marketings during the Read more

August feeder cattle values have displayed a seasonal tendency to advance from Mid May into the June August period. The summer price seasonal has been reinforced in years in which US cattle inventories on July 1 were less than the previous year’s count, which will likely be the case this Read more

August hogs are trading near the bottom of the recent trading range. Summer  hog futures are correlated with the March lightweight hog inventory as expressed in the USDA’s March hog census. The accompanying scatter studies display the change in the summer high and low for August hogs as a function Read more

June live cattle could struggle through expiration even though the contract is already trading at a discount to the cash market. The USDA has forecast the average price for cash finished cattle this quarter at $139 which, based  on historical experience, would imply a trading range for the June contract Read more

The Spring US hog inventory declined a little more than 2% on a year over year basis according to the latest Hogs and Pigs survey.We estimate April/September finished hog sales will decline 1% from slaughter during the same time a year ago.

Steer prices showed little impact from inflation in the first two decades of the 21st century as general price upward creep was very slow. But the recent surge in inflation has begun to impact cattle prices more robustly. The accompanying scatter studies display deflated Midwestern finished cattle values as a Read more

Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased on a year over year basis last month. Cattle on feed March 1 totaled 12.1 million head which exceeded the previous year by just one percent. We forecast cattle marketings over the March/September 2022  period will exceed finished cattle sales in Read more

USDA has increased the forecast for 2022 beef production in recent months, but beef output is still expected to fall short year over year during the last three quarters (April- December) of the forecast period. The more optimistic beef production forecast reflects the larger than normal percentage of the available Read more