Hog Market
The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita Read more…
We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. . The need to rebuild the US cattle herd and ensure adequate beef supplies beyond 2023 will likely be Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd inventory on December 1 was down 2% year over year and the smallest since 2016. The market hog inventory was also down 2% from a year ago. We have charted our forecast for first half 2023 FIS barrow & Gilt slaughter based on the Read more…
Cattle net placements fell short of finished cattle sales in November 2022 which is unusual for the fall months. Cattle on feed data suggest a 5% decline in fat cattle marketings over the next six months.
April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period over the past 40+ years. We have scattered April hog futures prices as Read more…
USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by quarter. Our forecast yields a slightly larger beef production forecast Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2022 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
Feeder cattle placements continued a long term downtrend in November while finished cattle sales increased 1% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The balance left November 1 US cattle on feed at the lowest level in four years. US prospective beef supplies will need to be Read more…
This month USDA forecast the US domestic pork supply would increase 2% year over year in the First quarter of 2023. The accompanying table displays the forecast price range for February hogs based on alternative pork supply assumptions relative to USDA”s November projection. For example if supply matches USDA’ estimate Read more…
USDA has projected a fractional year over year increase in US pork production in 2023 and a modest decline in net pork exports. The USDA’s current forecasts suggest a modest increase in the domestic per capita pork supply n 2023 which is a key variable in the April lean hog Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd was one million head fewer on September 1 2022, than one year ago and the fourth down year of the current hog inventory cycle. Market hogs on September 1 were off 1% an fraction suggesting a similar decline in commercial hog processing over the Read more…
US hog numbers likely declined over the summer to 74 million head on September 1 compared to 75 million head a year ago. High feed costs have kept hog production on the decline since the last hog cycle peak in 2019. Record high hog returns at farm level this summer Read more…
Cattle feedlot managers sharply curtailed feeder cattle placements last month while increasing finished cattle sales. The number of cattle on feed July 1 remained fractionally larger than a year ago. High feed costs have discouraged cattle placements this year despite finished cattle returns in the upper end of the recent Read more…
USDA reported the nation’s hog herd was down 1% on a year over year basis on June 1. Hog producers have not shown much inclination to expand production despite record finished hog prices at farm level. High feed costs have reduced hog production profitability. We calculate potential hog slaughter for Read more…
Feedlots placed fewer feeder cattle than finished cattle marketed last month, but total cattle on feed June 1 still exceeded that of any previous year. We project finished cattle sales in the June/December 2022 period will increase 2% on a year over year basis. A normal seasonal July/December price range Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the domestic per capita beef supply in the second half of 2022 would total 41 pound, down from 42 pounds a year ago. We have scattered the second half price range for December cattle as a function of per capita beef supply. For 2022 we Read more…
Feeder cattle prices could have considerable upside potential this summer, but only if farmers harvest a crop at least as large and preferably larger than USDA currently forecasts. As a residual claimant feeder cattle values closely follow feed grain values (negative) and finished cattle prices in a positive direction. Since Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head year over year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020. Hog Balance Mar/May Million head 2020 2021 2022 March 1 75.2 73.9 72.2 Pig crop Read more…
USDA reported cattle on feed May 1,2022 exceeded the year earlier level by 2% based on a 1% year over year decline in placements last month and a 2% reduction in marketings in April 2022. Analysis of historical data suggest placements over the last eight months would project marketings during the Read more…
August feeder cattle values have displayed a seasonal tendency to advance from Mid May into the June August period. The summer price seasonal has been reinforced in years in which US cattle inventories on July 1 were less than the previous year’s count, which will likely be the case this Read more…