Livestock

US feedlot feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both dropped sharply last month. Expensive feeder cattle replacements and high feed costs drove down placements and marketings last month. We project finished cattle marketings will decline 5% this summer and autumn.  August live cattle are trading well below the cash Read more

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast a drop in the 2024 beef supply. The USDA’s forecast is based on a shrinking cattle herd. The US cattle herd has been declining for several years, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024. This is due to a number Read more

US finished cattle sales declined last month as did net feeder cattle placements. US cattle on feed April 1 were down 4% from the previous year. We have summarized and displayed our forecast for annual US cattle slaughter, beef production and finished cattle cash and futures prices in the accompanying Read more

USDA reported a slight year over year increase in the US market hog inventory as of 3/1/2023. US barrow & gilt slaughter over the next six months will likely be within plus or minus one percent of the year earlier level based on past experience and assuming live hog imports Read more

We estimate the US hog inventory on March 1, 2023 at 75 million head, up 2% from the previous count. We have based our assumption for the December/February pig crop, which is the major unknown in calculating the first quarter hog balance, on USDA’s December sows farrowing survey and trend Read more

The number of cattle in US feedlots declined 4% over the last year. January 2023 net feeder cattle placements were down 4% year over year while finished cattle marketings last month were 4% larger than in the same month a year earlier. Recent feedlot activity suggests finished cattle sales over Read more

August live cattle appear to have significant upside potential based on the latest supply/usage forecasts from USDA. We present the results of a cattle price forecast model which uses US beef production and exports combined with the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to project a late winter through summer price Read more

Historically August lean hog values have been closely associated with summer pork production, pork exports and the US gross domestic economic income. The  GDI contains both real economic growth and inflation. We have assumed a 2% growth rate in real incomes and a 5% inflation rate for GDI. The summer Read more

USDA reported the potential feeder cattle dropped by one million head over the last year. We have scattered the price range for the June finished cattle contract as a function of the potential feeder supply. The projected price range is the same as we provided in our January 25, 2023 Read more

June hog futures prices have advanced more than declined in 15 of 24 years in which the preceding year *year t)  pig crop was less than the previous year’s (year t-1) level. In December USDA estimated the June 2022 to November 2022 pig crop at 67.2 million head compared to Read more

This month  USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and  low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the US domestic per capita beef supply in the first half Read more

USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots January 1  totaled 11.7 million head or 3% fewer than at the same time a year ago. Net feeder cattle placements declined  8% year over year in December 2022 while finished cattle sales last month declined 6% compared to marketings in Read more

The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm Read more

The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita Read more

We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd  since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn  heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. .  The need to rebuild the US cattle herd and ensure adequate beef supplies  beyond 2023 will likely be Read more

USDA reported the US hog herd inventory on December 1 was down 2% year over year and the smallest since 2016. The market hog inventory was also down 2% from a year ago. We have charted our forecast for first half 2023 FIS barrow & Gilt slaughter based on the Read more

Cattle net placements fell short of finished cattle sales in November 2022 which is unusual for the fall months. Cattle on feed data suggest a 5% decline in fat cattle marketings over the next six months.

April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s  latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period  over the past 40+ years. We have scattered April hog futures prices as Read more

USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by quarter. Our forecast yields a slightly larger beef production forecast Read more