Hog Market
USDA has projected a modest increase in US pork production in 2024. An increase in US pork exports would absorb about half of the increase in projected pork production based on the USDA’s US pork supply/usage balance published in early November 2023. USDA’s 2024 pork production estimate will be refined Read more
This month USDA forecast a two pound decline in the per capita 2024 US beef supply based on the production/usage data presented in the accompanying table. Of course the key number in the table is beef production which USDA expects to decline in 2024. USDA partially compensates for lower production Read more
USDA prepares farm level cash hog price forecasts each month. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter early spring April lean hog futures price range as a function of the winter-spring farm level cash hog value. The red point marked USDA is the USDA’s November 2023 price forecast. $60, and Read more
Cattle on feed November 1, 2023 neared the record large set in November 2020 despite scarce feeder cattle supplies. Reduced finished cattle marketing and placing a larger share of available feeder cattle kept the on feedlot population surprisingly large last month. Earlier this month USDA forecast the 2024 per capita Read more
The USDA forecast the per capita domestic pork supply for the first quarter of 2024 at 16.7 pounds, down 2% from a year ago. USDA expects first quarter pork production to be equal to a year ago, but a modest increase in pork exports and a increase in population will Read more
Feedlots reduced year over year sales of finished cattle last month but increased feeder cattle placements compared to activity in September 2023. Feedlots have reduced year over year marketings as increasing finishing schedules was cheaper than buying expensive feeder cattle. USDA has increased the US beef production 2023 estimate by Read more
In the past 50 years cash feeder cattle prices have displayed a bearish bias from early October into the early spring period. Feedlot replacement demand slackens after the fall surge in incoming feeder cattle and the need to push feeder supplies off winter pasture account for the seasonal weakness. Read more
USDA put the September 1 market hog inventory at 68 million head which is just fractionally larger than a year earlier. A regression study with October/March commercial hog slaughter as a function of original hog inventory data plus net live hog imports, suggests commercial hog slaughter over the next six Read more
USDA expects a significant cut in US pork supply during the first quarter of 2024. We have correlated the February lean hog price range with January March per capita pork supply over the last 30+ years. Plugging in the USDA’s pork supply forecast would suggest an autumn winter price range Read more
The number of cattle on feed likely declined last month. The high cost of feeder cattle replacements was the principal factor limiting cattle on feed activity. The need to hold back heifers to increase the cattle herd will likely keep both feeder cattle and finished cattle supplies tight through at Read more
We estimate the September 1 US hog inventory at 72.8 million head, down 2% from the census at the same time last year. Our estimate assumes the USDA’s summer sows farrowing projection published in June 2023 and a trend projection for the number of pigs saved per litter. Read more
USDA has projected the average price for steers, finished and basis Nebraska, at $186 per hundredweight in 2024 compared to the previous record $155 established in 2014. Another sharp reduction in US beef supply in 2024 forms the base for the USDA’s live steer price forecast. US beef supply is Read more
Pasture & range conditions have improved significantly over a year ago, but are only average compared ratings in the last 10 years. At any rate ranchers will not be forced to move calves or yearlings into feedlots this Autumn for lack of pasture. Improved pastures support feeder cattle prices and Read more
Feeder cattle futures prices appeared to, at least temporarily, have stalled after a major winter – spring bull market. The accompanying scatter studies display autumn feeder cattle values (high & low range) as a function of the supply of feeder cattle on July 1. USDA data put the mid-year 2023 Read more
Cash hogs have displayed a strong negative price seasonal from summer into autumn over the last 50 years. Increased slaughter hog supplies in the autumn has driven the negative price seasonal. Currently December lean hogs are trading $24 discount to the August hog contract. The discount reflects aggregate trader’s expectation Read more
USDA reported cattle on feed July 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Feeder cattle placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the July 2023 through December 2023 period will fall short at least 3% of finished cattle sales from Read more
USDA reported the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 95.8 million head, down 3% from a year ago and the second fewest in the last 50 years. The ratio of July/December US beef production to inventory is displayed in the accompanying chart with 2023 based USDA projected data. Note Read more
The USDA’s June 1,2023 survey found US market hog supplies up less than 1% year over year. Barring a major data error market hog slaughter during the second half of 2023 will be about equal to that of 2022. A hogs process forecast model based on original market hog data Read more
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed June 1. 2023, down three percent from a year ago. Both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings increased in May 2023 compared to a year ago. Fed cattle account for about 60% of US cattle total slaughter. We have calculated estimates Read more
We estimate the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 96 million head, compared to 99 million head a year ago and the second smallest mid-calendar year count since data was first collected in 1973. The July USDA Cattle Report is scheduled for release July 21, 2023. Read more