Hog Market
Cash hogs have displayed a strong negative price seasonal from summer into autumn over the last 50 years. Increased slaughter hog supplies in the autumn has driven the negative price seasonal. Currently December lean hogs are trading $24 discount to the August hog contract. The discount reflects aggregate trader’s expectation Read more…
USDA reported cattle on feed July 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Feeder cattle placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the July 2023 through December 2023 period will fall short at least 3% of finished cattle sales from Read more…
USDA reported the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 95.8 million head, down 3% from a year ago and the second fewest in the last 50 years. The ratio of July/December US beef production to inventory is displayed in the accompanying chart with 2023 based USDA projected data. Note Read more…
The USDA’s June 1,2023 survey found US market hog supplies up less than 1% year over year. Barring a major data error market hog slaughter during the second half of 2023 will be about equal to that of 2022. A hogs process forecast model based on original market hog data Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed June 1. 2023, down three percent from a year ago. Both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings increased in May 2023 compared to a year ago. Fed cattle account for about 60% of US cattle total slaughter. We have calculated estimates Read more…
We estimate the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 96 million head, compared to 99 million head a year ago and the second smallest mid-calendar year count since data was first collected in 1973. The July USDA Cattle Report is scheduled for release July 21, 2023. Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory totaled 71.5 million head on June 1 compared to the year over year comparison of 72.3 million head. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck to the one percent cut in March/May sows farrowing intentions expressed in the March 2023 survey. The June Hogs & Pigs Read more…
US feedlot feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both dropped sharply last month. Expensive feeder cattle replacements and high feed costs drove down placements and marketings last month. We project finished cattle marketings will decline 5% this summer and autumn. August live cattle are trading well below the cash Read more…
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast a drop in the 2024 beef supply. The USDA’s forecast is based on a shrinking cattle herd. The US cattle herd has been declining for several years, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024. This is due to a number Read more…
US finished cattle sales declined last month as did net feeder cattle placements. US cattle on feed April 1 were down 4% from the previous year. We have summarized and displayed our forecast for annual US cattle slaughter, beef production and finished cattle cash and futures prices in the accompanying Read more…
USDA reported a slight year over year increase in the US market hog inventory as of 3/1/2023. US barrow & gilt slaughter over the next six months will likely be within plus or minus one percent of the year earlier level based on past experience and assuming live hog imports Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory on March 1, 2023 at 75 million head, up 2% from the previous count. We have based our assumption for the December/February pig crop, which is the major unknown in calculating the first quarter hog balance, on USDA’s December sows farrowing survey and trend Read more…
The number of cattle in US feedlots declined 4% over the last year. January 2023 net feeder cattle placements were down 4% year over year while finished cattle marketings last month were 4% larger than in the same month a year earlier. Recent feedlot activity suggests finished cattle sales over Read more…
August live cattle appear to have significant upside potential based on the latest supply/usage forecasts from USDA. We present the results of a cattle price forecast model which uses US beef production and exports combined with the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to project a late winter through summer price Read more…
Historically August lean hog values have been closely associated with summer pork production, pork exports and the US gross domestic economic income. The GDI contains both real economic growth and inflation. We have assumed a 2% growth rate in real incomes and a 5% inflation rate for GDI. The summer Read more…
USDA reported the potential feeder cattle dropped by one million head over the last year. We have scattered the price range for the June finished cattle contract as a function of the potential feeder supply. The projected price range is the same as we provided in our January 25, 2023 Read more…
June hog futures prices have advanced more than declined in 15 of 24 years in which the preceding year *year t) pig crop was less than the previous year’s (year t-1) level. In December USDA estimated the June 2022 to November 2022 pig crop at 67.2 million head compared to Read more…
This month USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the US domestic per capita beef supply in the first half Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots January 1 totaled 11.7 million head or 3% fewer than at the same time a year ago. Net feeder cattle placements declined 8% year over year in December 2022 while finished cattle sales last month declined 6% compared to marketings in Read more…
The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm Read more…