Livestock

USDA expects pork production to increase over the next eighteen months. US Pork exports are also expected to expand, to the best level since China imported US pork in 2021 and 2022. USDA’s pork supply/demand balance sheet would project domestic per capita pork supply up significantly in 2024 but off Read more

The June 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report brought some surprising news for the beef industry. Let’s break down the key points regarding beef supply, demand, and prices: Supply: The USDA US beef production for 2024 estimate remained virtually unchanged from the previous report. However, there were Read more

The US hog herd appears to have increased modestly over the past year. We estimate the inventory on June 1, 2024 at 74.2 million head, one percent larger than on the same date in 2023.  Calculating the June hog herd estimate is dependent on the size of the March/May pig Read more

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest Cattle on Feed report on May 24, 2024, offering insights into trends in cattle feeding and marketing. Here’s a quick look at some key takeaways: Inventory down from last year: On May 1, 2024, there were 11.6 million head of Read more

USDA has estimated a 3% increase in US pork production in 2024 an additional 1% increase in 2025. US pork exports are expected to increase sharply in both 2024 and 2025 leaving domestic per capita pork supplies up just 1% this year and down 1% in 2025 . US Pork Read more

USDA has  forecast a 1% drop in US beef production in 2024 and an additional 3% decline in 2025. The need to restock the beef herd by holding back heifers for herd replacement accounts for the expected decline in beef production.  We have constructed a US beef supply/usage balance based Read more

USDA reported a sharp drop in cattle feedlot activity in March 2024. Net feeder cattle placements declined 13% on a year over year basis. March finished cattle marketing declined 14%. The inventory of cattle on feed April 1, 2024  was 1% larger than a year ago. Feedlot operators are feeding Read more

USDA expects US  pork production to increase 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. US pork imports are expected to increase 5% in 2024 and decline 1% in 2025. US pork exports, which have been much larger than imports in recent years, are expected to increase 8% this year and Read more

  USDA expects US beef production to drop 2% year over year in 2025 after a similar reduction in 2024. US per capita beef supply in 2025 could decline 4% compared to 2024 which USDA has forecast down 1% from 2023 US beef supply. US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) Annual Read more

USDA’s March Hog census found the US hog herd was just 1% larger than a year ago on 1 March 2024 and just under the record large March count  established in 2020. March market hog numbers were also up 1% from the same time in 2023 while hogs retained for Read more

US feeder cattle supplies appear to  be the tightest this century. In The accompanying scatter studies we have set deliverable feeder cattle price as a function of the April feeder cattle supply as calculated by USDA. The points for 2024 are based on data available in Mid March 2024 and Read more

We estimate the US hog herd on March 1, 2024 at 75 million head, up 2% year over year and just under the spring record recorded in March 2020. The number of hogs  kept for herd maintenance on March 1 2024   was down 3% from a year ago as Read more

This month the USDA forecast US beef production at 26 billion pounds, down 3 percent on a year over year basis. The negative production estimate reflects a 2% reduction in the US cattle inventory on January 1, 2024. The 2024  January cattle census was the smallest in more than 50 Read more

USDA has been steadily increasing the pork production projection for the first half of 2024, USDA has kept the second half of 2024 US pork production projection at a steady +3 to 4% year over year increase. We have fitted a model using the late winter through summer price range Read more

The first half 2024 supply of feeder cattle will be the tightest this century based on a calculation made from data in the recently released Cattle Inventory report. We calculate there were 10,9 million head of cattle over 500 pounds but not in feedlots or reserved for herd expansion on Read more

USDA is scheduled to publish results of the January US cattle survey on January 31,2024. We estimate the January 1 herd numbered less than 88 million head, down 2% on a year over year basis Our estimates assume the USDA’s projection  of the U:S second half 2023 calf crop projection  Read more

The USDA’s November 2023 US feedlot survey reported cattlemen placed 2% fewer feeder cattle then in the same month a year ago. Finished cattle marketings in November declined 7% year over year leaving cattle on feed December 1, 2023 up 3% from the previous year. Last autumn expensive feeder cattle Read more

USDA’ December Hog census estimated the total US herd on December 1, 2023 at  75 million head which was equal to the revised data from a year ago. The number of hogs kept for breeding was down 2% from a year earlier as was the farrowing intentions survey for the Read more

Earlier this monthUSDA forecast  live finished cattle would average $178/hundredweight in 2024 compared to $176 in 2023. USDA dropped the 2024 price forecast by $7/Cwt. between the November and December forecast based on an increase in the 2024 US  beef production forecast and the break in cattle futures prices over Read more

The December 1 US hog herd Inventory likely declined compared to a year earlier. The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November pig crop estimate assumes the September USDA planned sows farrowing survey Read more