Hog Market
USDA has forecast a 4% increase in US pork supply in 2024 / 2025 and a 7% increase in US pork exports in 2025. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) 2024/2023 2025/2024 Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change % Change Beg Stock 467 446 504 471 460 Production 27,690 Read more…
USDA reported July 1, 2024 cattle on feed numbers up 1% from a year earlier, but both June placements and finished cattle sales declined sharply compared to a year ago. Forty percent of July 1 feedlot inventory were heifers which is well above the 33% in 2015 when the cattle Read more…
USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024 compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years. US Read more…
USDA estimated the June 1, 2024 Hog herd at 74.5 million head, a 1% increase from a year ago. Market hogs were up 2% on a year over year basis. Earlier this month USDA estimated US pork production during the second half of 2024 would increase 5% on a year Read more…
The US cattle herd likely declined to the smallest level in more than 50 years on July 1. We calculate US cattle numbers on July 1, 2024 at 93 million head, a 3% year over year decline and a 10 million head plunge in just 4 years. Cattlemen are taking Read more…
USDA expects pork production to increase over the next eighteen months. US Pork exports are also expected to expand, to the best level since China imported US pork in 2021 and 2022. USDA’s pork supply/demand balance sheet would project domestic per capita pork supply up significantly in 2024 but off Read more…
The June 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report brought some surprising news for the beef industry. Let’s break down the key points regarding beef supply, demand, and prices: Supply: The USDA US beef production for 2024 estimate remained virtually unchanged from the previous report. However, there were Read more…
The US hog herd appears to have increased modestly over the past year. We estimate the inventory on June 1, 2024 at 74.2 million head, one percent larger than on the same date in 2023. Calculating the June hog herd estimate is dependent on the size of the March/May pig Read more…
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest Cattle on Feed report on May 24, 2024, offering insights into trends in cattle feeding and marketing. Here’s a quick look at some key takeaways: Inventory down from last year: On May 1, 2024, there were 11.6 million head of Read more…
USDA has estimated a 3% increase in US pork production in 2024 an additional 1% increase in 2025. US pork exports are expected to increase sharply in both 2024 and 2025 leaving domestic per capita pork supplies up just 1% this year and down 1% in 2025 . US Pork Read more…
USDA has forecast a 1% drop in US beef production in 2024 and an additional 3% decline in 2025. The need to restock the beef herd by holding back heifers for herd replacement accounts for the expected decline in beef production. We have constructed a US beef supply/usage balance based Read more…
USDA reported a sharp drop in cattle feedlot activity in March 2024. Net feeder cattle placements declined 13% on a year over year basis. March finished cattle marketing declined 14%. The inventory of cattle on feed April 1, 2024 was 1% larger than a year ago. Feedlot operators are feeding Read more…
USDA expects US pork production to increase 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. US pork imports are expected to increase 5% in 2024 and decline 1% in 2025. US pork exports, which have been much larger than imports in recent years, are expected to increase 8% this year and Read more…
USDA expects US beef production to drop 2% year over year in 2025 after a similar reduction in 2024. US per capita beef supply in 2025 could decline 4% compared to 2024 which USDA has forecast down 1% from 2023 US beef supply. US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) Annual Read more…
USDA’s March Hog census found the US hog herd was just 1% larger than a year ago on 1 March 2024 and just under the record large March count established in 2020. March market hog numbers were also up 1% from the same time in 2023 while hogs retained for Read more…
US feeder cattle supplies appear to be the tightest this century. In The accompanying scatter studies we have set deliverable feeder cattle price as a function of the April feeder cattle supply as calculated by USDA. The points for 2024 are based on data available in Mid March 2024 and Read more…
We estimate the US hog herd on March 1, 2024 at 75 million head, up 2% year over year and just under the spring record recorded in March 2020. The number of hogs kept for herd maintenance on March 1 2024 was down 3% from a year ago as Read more…
This month the USDA forecast US beef production at 26 billion pounds, down 3 percent on a year over year basis. The negative production estimate reflects a 2% reduction in the US cattle inventory on January 1, 2024. The 2024 January cattle census was the smallest in more than 50 Read more…
USDA has been steadily increasing the pork production projection for the first half of 2024, USDA has kept the second half of 2024 US pork production projection at a steady +3 to 4% year over year increase. We have fitted a model using the late winter through summer price range Read more…
The first half 2024 supply of feeder cattle will be the tightest this century based on a calculation made from data in the recently released Cattle Inventory report. We calculate there were 10,9 million head of cattle over 500 pounds but not in feedlots or reserved for herd expansion on Read more…