Hog Market
USDA has projected a 2% increase in US pork production in 2025. According to USDA US net pork exports will increase again in 2025 and moderate the quantity of pork available for domestic consumption in 2025. USDA January/March 2025 Live hog price forecast suggests February2025 hogs on the CME are Read more…
USDA has forecast a 3% reduction in US beef production next year. Fewer cattle marketed in 2025 will be partially offset by heavier sale weights . Costly feeder cattle and cheap feed grains and protein feeds favor the heavier market weight strategy. We have included historical ranges for February live Read more…
December Hogs Futures have rallied sharply since making a low last summer. The reported heavy (over 120 pounds) hog census data on September 1 missed the mark to the low side based on lighter than expected slaughter data since early September. In a previous post we published a study suggesting Read more…
USDA rated just 22% of the US Pasture & Range in good or excellent condition on 10/13/2024 which is the lowest assessment for early October in the last 30 years except for the major drought year of 2012. The US cattle herd is small anyway, but the need to provide Read more…
Since mid summer nearby lean hog futures prices have rallied from the low end to the upper end of the projected price range based on assumed US market fall and winter hog supplies. One factor supporting hog prices deliverable on the CME live hog contract has been strong export demand. Read more…
The accompanying table displays US pork production forecasts over the next six months. The farm level price forecasts are from USDA. The CME lean hog futures projections are based on a linear regression with futures high and low the dependent variable and the farm level price the in dependent variable. Read more…
The US hog inventory increased fractionally over the last year based on the USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report. We have derived slaughter estimates over the next six months based on the September inventory data and present the results in the following table. Marketings in the fall quarter are projected Read more…
This month USDA forecast the April/June average Midwest finished cattle price at $186/Cwt. Recent history reveals the April live cattle contract has made a high in excess of the USDA 2nd quarter cash forecast in nine of ten years. On September 24, 2024 the April cattle contract closed at the Read more…
This month USDA forecast an average price for Midwest finished steers of $183 per hundredweight for the October/December period On September 24, 2024 December 2024 Live cattle closed at $184 or 101% of the USDA’s fourth quarter forecast of $183. Given the shortage of feeder cattle, December live cattle appear Read more…
Feeder placements and finished cattle marketings both declined last month compared to data in August 2023. The number of cattle in US feedlots on September 1, 2024 was fractionally larger than at the same time a year ago. Feedlot operators continue to cope with the shortage of feeder cattle by Read more…
USDA made only minor changes to the US pork supply/usage balance this month, likely preferring to await the September Hogs & Pigs report (scheduled for release September 26, 2024) to make significant changes if needed. December 2024 lean hog futures have staged a significant price rally since establishing a low Read more…
In the first week of September cash cattle were trading near $183 per hundredweight and the December 2024 live cattle contract $175. The table below displays the autumn price range for both cash and futures with a seasonal forecast for 2024. The 2024 price forecast is based solely on historical Read more…
We calculate the September 1, 2024 US hog inventory at 75 million head, a 2% year over year reduction. Our estimate is anchored on the USDA‘s June Sows farrowing survey which found farmers intending to reduce summer farrowings 3% from a year earlier. The September 2024 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in large feedlots August 1 was nearly identical to the same population a year ago. Feedlot operators are holding cattle to heavier weights this year compared to recent historical data. Cheap feed costs and scarce feeder cattle supplies favor putting more weight on cattle Read more…
USDA projects a 5% drop in US beef production in 2025 after an estimated 1% cut in 2024. The US domestic beef supply per capita in 2025 would be the tightest since 2016 based on USDA data forecasts. December 2024 cattle futures prices have been under pressure since late winter Read more…
USDA has forecast a 4% increase in US pork supply in 2024 / 2025 and a 7% increase in US pork exports in 2025. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) 2024/2023 2025/2024 Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change % Change Beg Stock 467 446 504 471 460 Production 27,690 Read more…
USDA reported July 1, 2024 cattle on feed numbers up 1% from a year earlier, but both June placements and finished cattle sales declined sharply compared to a year ago. Forty percent of July 1 feedlot inventory were heifers which is well above the 33% in 2015 when the cattle Read more…
USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024 compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years. US Read more…
USDA estimated the June 1, 2024 Hog herd at 74.5 million head, a 1% increase from a year ago. Market hogs were up 2% on a year over year basis. Earlier this month USDA estimated US pork production during the second half of 2024 would increase 5% on a year Read more…
The US cattle herd likely declined to the smallest level in more than 50 years on July 1. We calculate US cattle numbers on July 1, 2024 at 93 million head, a 3% year over year decline and a 10 million head plunge in just 4 years. Cattlemen are taking Read more…