Livestock

The USDA’s December US hog census found the herd had grown just 1% over the last year. Hog producers plan to expand the number of sows & gilts farrowed 1% over the next six months. Improvement in hog industry efficiency was reflected in a record number of pigs saved per Read more…

US Cattle on feed December 1, 2024.was down slightly on a year over year basis. Feedlot managers have been able keep their feedlot numbers reasonably close to optimal numbers despite a tight feeder cattle supply. Holding cattle longer putting on additional weight has been the critical strategy to keep feedlots Read more…

The December 1 , 2024 US hog herd Inventory likely increased compared to a year earlier.The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November US pig crop estimate assumes the September 2024 USDA planned Read more…

USDA projects a 5% year over year decline in US beef production in 2025 with the steepest reduction occurring in the second half of the  year. April live cattle futures are already trading near the USDA projected winter/spring high. Tight  feeder cattle supplies, and the outlook for tightening beef supplies Read more…

US Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased in October compared to the same month a year ago. Based on recent feedlot data, steer & heifer slaughter will be about unchanged over the next eight months. Beef production from feedlot marketings is projected to increase because of heavier Read more…

USDA has projected a 2% increase in US pork production in 2025.  According to USDA US net pork exports will increase again in  2025 and moderate the quantity of pork  available for domestic consumption in 2025. USDA  January/March 2025 Live hog price forecast suggests February2025 hogs on the CME are Read more…

USDA has forecast a 3% reduction in US beef production next year. Fewer cattle marketed in 2025 will be partially offset by heavier sale weights . Costly feeder cattle and cheap feed grains and protein feeds favor the heavier market weight strategy. We have included historical ranges for February live Read more…

December Hogs Futures have rallied sharply since making a low last summer. The reported heavy (over 120 pounds) hog census data  on September 1 missed the mark to the low side based on lighter than expected slaughter data since early September.  In a previous post we published a study suggesting Read more…

Since mid summer nearby lean hog futures prices have rallied from the low end to the upper end of the projected price range based on assumed US market fall and winter hog supplies. One factor supporting hog prices deliverable on the CME live hog contract has been strong export demand. Read more…

The accompanying table displays US pork production forecasts over the next six months. The farm level price forecasts are from USDA. The CME lean hog futures projections are based on a linear regression with futures  high and low the dependent variable and the farm level price the in dependent variable. Read more…

The US hog inventory increased fractionally over the last year based on the USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report. We have derived slaughter estimates over the next six months based on the September inventory data and present the results in the following table. Marketings in the fall quarter are projected Read more…

This month USDA forecast the April/June average Midwest finished cattle price at $186/Cwt. Recent history reveals the April live cattle contract has made a high in excess of the USDA 2nd quarter cash forecast in nine of ten years.  On September 24, 2024 the April cattle contract closed at the Read more…

This month USDA forecast an average price for Midwest finished steers of $183 per hundredweight for the October/December period  On September 24, 2024  December 2024 Live cattle closed at $184  or 101% of the USDA’s fourth quarter forecast of $183.  Given the shortage of feeder cattle, December live cattle appear Read more…

Feeder placements and finished cattle marketings both declined last month compared to data in August 2023. The number of cattle in US feedlots on September 1, 2024 was fractionally larger than at the same time a year ago. Feedlot operators continue to cope with the shortage of feeder cattle by Read more…

USDA made only minor changes to the US pork supply/usage balance this month, likely preferring to await the September Hogs & Pigs report (scheduled for release September 26, 2024) to make significant changes if needed.  December 2024 lean  hog futures have staged a significant price rally since establishing a low Read more…

In the first week of September cash cattle were trading near $183 per hundredweight and the December 2024  live cattle contract $175. The table below displays the autumn price range for both cash and futures with a seasonal forecast for 2024. The 2024 price forecast is based solely on historical Read more…

We calculate the September 1, 2024 US hog inventory at  75 million head, a 2% year over year reduction. Our estimate is anchored on the USDA‘s June Sows farrowing survey which found farmers intending to reduce summer farrowings 3% from a year earlier. The September 2024 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…

USDA reported the  number of cattle in large feedlots August 1 was nearly identical to  the same population a year ago. Feedlot operators are holding cattle to heavier weights this year compared to recent historical data. Cheap feed costs  and scarce feeder cattle supplies favor putting more weight on cattle Read more…

USDA projects a 5% drop in US beef production in 2025 after an estimated 1% cut in 2024. The US domestic beef supply per capita in 2025 would be the tightest since 2016 based on USDA data forecasts. December 2024 cattle futures prices have been under pressure since late winter Read more…