Hog Market
USDA reported the US hog inventory on March 1, 2025 at 74.5 million head, down fractionally from a year ago. Hog producers have displayed little inclination to expand production as both breeding hog numbers and the farrow intentions survey were down about 1% from the report in 2024. Hog farmers Read more
US net feeder cattle placements on a per day basis in February 2025 dropped 16% last month compared to the same month a year ago. February 2025 per day marketing decline 15% relative to the same data in 2024. We calculate US beef production will drop 4% in 2025 on Read more
The USDA reduced the 2025 US pork production estimate this month but still expects a modest increase for the year as a whole. Hog slaughter has trailed the USDA earlier forecast based on daily FIS slaughter data. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change Read more
We estimate all hogs and pigs in the US on March 1,2025 were just one half percent larger than a year ago. Our March inventory calculation assumed USDA’s winter sow farrowing forecast derived from data obtained in the December 2024 US hog census and a trend of pigs saved per Read more
In this month’s WASDE report USDA forecast a 3% year over year increase in US pork production in 2025. The per capita domestic pork supply is projected to increase 2% in 2025 compared to that available in 2024. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Read more
USDA reported US feeder cattle numbers on January 1, 2025 were up slightly from the year earlier level. The August feeder cattle contract is trading on the high of the recent price/supply function, but not far out of line with the August live cattle contract. Both contract values could struggle Read more
USDA reported the number of cattle on farms and ranches January 1, 2025 at 86.7 million head, down 1% year or year and the sixth straight annual decline in US cattle numbers. We have calculated a breakout of possible cattle slaughter and an aggregate beef forecast for 2025. Our 3% Read more
US pork export sales are running well ahead of most recent years except for the China sales years of 2020 & 2021. USDA expects 25% of US pork production to be exported in 2025 compared to under 20% a decade earlier. Note Chart displays US pork export sales in each Read more
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed January 1 declined 1% from a year ago. We have calculated a ratio of cattle in feedlots as a percentage of all cattle. The January 1 , 2025 ratio was 16.6% compared to 16.5 last year and and the modern record high. Read more
We have constructed an index of hog profitability which uses futures market values and adjusts for the advancement of hog production efficiency. Note that the index currently suggests hog profitability is good enough that we can expect a modest inventory expansion in 2025. We have also charted the traditional hog Read more
The US cattle herd size likely declined again in 2024 which is the sixth consecutive drop since the cattle cycle peaked in 2019. Exceptionally favorable feeder cattle prices have caused ranchers to begin the turn in the inventory cycle by sending fewer cows and heifers to slaughter. Recent US cattle Read more
Earlier this month USDA forecast a record $196/Cwt. annual average for Midwestern finished cattle in 2025. Correlating the price range for June live cattle with USDA’s January estimate results in a February 2025/June 2025 price range forecast of $179 to $198 per hundredweight. June 2025 live cattle futures closed at Read more
This month USDA forecast a 3% increase in US pork production in 2025. The USDA’s assessment is ambitious as the US hog inventory on December 1, 2024 was up less than one percent from a year ago. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change Read more
The calculated price seasonal is a useful, although not definitive, metric for forecasting pork prices and lean hog futures spreads.The calculated seasonal pork cut out price is displayed in the accompanying chart. The cash pork cutout closed at $90.5 /Cwt. On 01/08/2025. Since the close is just above the calculated Read more
US box beef early January 2025 values are trading just under the record (except for the Covid distortion in 2020) set in the summer of 2021. Rising wholesale beef prices are the market accomplishing the function of rationing scarce beef supplies. Cattlemen appear to have started the process of increasing Read more
The USDA’s December US hog census found the herd had grown just 1% over the last year. Hog producers plan to expand the number of sows & gilts farrowed 1% over the next six months. Improvement in hog industry efficiency was reflected in a record number of pigs saved per Read more
US Cattle on feed December 1, 2024.was down slightly on a year over year basis. Feedlot managers have been able keep their feedlot numbers reasonably close to optimal numbers despite a tight feeder cattle supply. Holding cattle longer putting on additional weight has been the critical strategy to keep feedlots Read more
The December 1 , 2024 US hog herd Inventory likely increased compared to a year earlier.The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November US pig crop estimate assumes the September 2024 USDA planned Read more
USDA projects a 5% year over year decline in US beef production in 2025 with the steepest reduction occurring in the second half of the year. April live cattle futures are already trading near the USDA projected winter/spring high. Tight feeder cattle supplies, and the outlook for tightening beef supplies Read more
US Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased in October compared to the same month a year ago. Based on recent feedlot data, steer & heifer slaughter will be about unchanged over the next eight months. Beef production from feedlot marketings is projected to increase because of heavier Read more