US corn feed residual use increased modestly during the first quarter of 2020/21 crop year. By contrast USDA projects a 4% drop in crop year feed and residual disappearance.USDA reasons the recent bull corn market will ration corn supplies thru the last three quarters of the crop year. We have Read more…
Ethanol processors are paying plus $1.36 for corn since harvest. The increased corn value has been derived from an increased $.27 from the value of ethanol, $.56 increased value of distillers dried grains (DDGS), and $.53 from reduced processor margin. DDGS values are correlated with soybean meal prices and the Read more…
The USDA forecast the average crop year farm price for corn of $4.00 per bushel in the November WAOB report. We have scattered the winter/spring summer high and low for Central Illinois Corn as a function of the USDA’s November average prices forecast. The studies have respectable R2 statistics of Read more…
USDA reported 46% of the US winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition on November 15 compared to 52% at the same time a year ago and the past 30 year mid November average of 57%. In most past years in which the winter wheat crop was rated Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the fall – winter high in Chicago soft red wheat as a function of the US wheat carryout as a percentage of crop year food usage + exports. We have marked the WAOB November ratio estimate and the current high for December 2020 futures. Read more…
USDA expects the foreign corn deficit to widen this season as growth in disappearance outpaces production. Foreign consumers will likely fill needs with US corn as foreign stocks have tightened and are no longer an alternative to buying US corn.
The 2020/2021 prospective corn supply/usage balance has transformed from large stocks to the possible need to ration supplies. The change is remarkable for being accomplished without a major summer drought which was the case in most late summer bull markets. The mid summer storm helped but crop damage was mild Read more…
U.S. corn export sales totaled more than 1.3 billion bushels in late October which was a record for the date. We have scattered crop year corn exports as a function of late October sales. The point in red is this year’s sales and USDA’s October crop year forecast. USDA could Read more…
The 2021 winter wheat crop has gotten off to a poor start with 43% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition compared to 67% last year and the 25 year average of 58%.
This month USDA forecast 2020/2021 U.S. feed residual usage at 5775 million bushels compared to 5827 million bushels a year ago. Feed/residual usage is a function of animal numbers, expressed as grain consuming animal units, and the cost of corn as represented by the average price of corn at farm Read more…
USDA cut the new crop (2020/21) U.S. corn carryout this month in line with a small U.S. corn crop estimate. USDA also cut Feed and industrial usage. We have prepared a chart displaying the ratio of the October estimate stocks to crop year usage ratio excluding feed usage. We have Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the winter through spring high for soft red wheat in Chicago as a function of U.S. wheat carryout stocks as a % of crop year food use and exports. China, in the past a minor buyer of U.S. wheat has purchased nearly million tonnes of Read more…
The cut in the old crop corn carryout estimate this week has pushed the new crop corn balance further into the volatile range. The accompanying scatters display the highs and lows for central Illinois corn as a function of the U.S. corn carryout as a percentage of crop year food, Read more…
Corn export sales for the 2020/21 season totaled 873 million bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of other years in the past three decades. China has purchased almost 400 million bushels of U.S corn for 2020/21 delivery.
USDA rated 60% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, and near the midpoint of all years since 1988. Unlike the soybean case the USDA September estimate outperforms the crop conditions models so we Read more…
The USDA estimated the 2020/21 foreign corn deficit at 60 million tonnes which will be the fourth consecutive season of large shortfalls. Depleted stocks will translate the deficit into stronger export demand for U.S. corn. China has already purchased 9 million tonnes of U.S. corn for 2020/21 delivery compared to Read more…
We have found that the U.S. corn carryout as a % of industrial usage plus exports is a reliable indicator of corn price discovery. USDA presently forecasts the 2020/2021 corn carryout at 2.7 billion bushels which is 28% of food ,industrial, fuel plus exports. The ratio suggests a high in Read more…
U.S. corn sales to China have been a major supporting force in the corn futures market this summer.New Sales to China totaled 7.6 million tonnes on 8/27/2020 which is well above sales in recent years.
USDA cut the corn crop condition to 62 % this week compared to 64% last week and the peak rating of 75% in June 2020 and the 1988/2019 average of 60%. A model using yield as a function of late August rating results in a calculated yield of 182 bushels Read more…
In the August WAOB report USDA calculated the foreign corn deficit at 57 million tonnes in 2020/21 compared to 51 million tonnes last season.Most of the deficit was attributable to China. China has already purchased about six million tonnes of new crop U.S. corn compared to two.million tonnes in 2019/2020.USDA Read more…