USDA rated 60% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of mid September which is down from 70%+ in mid summer, and near the midpoint of all years since 1988. Unlike the soybean case the USDA September estimate outperforms the crop conditions models so we Read more…
The USDA estimated the 2020/21 foreign corn deficit at 60 million tonnes which will be the fourth consecutive season of large shortfalls. Depleted stocks will translate the deficit into stronger export demand for U.S. corn. China has already purchased 9 million tonnes of U.S. corn for 2020/21 delivery compared to Read more…
We have found that the U.S. corn carryout as a % of industrial usage plus exports is a reliable indicator of corn price discovery. USDA presently forecasts the 2020/2021 corn carryout at 2.7 billion bushels which is 28% of food ,industrial, fuel plus exports. The ratio suggests a high in Read more…
U.S. corn sales to China have been a major supporting force in the corn futures market this summer.New Sales to China totaled 7.6 million tonnes on 8/27/2020 which is well above sales in recent years.
USDA cut the corn crop condition to 62 % this week compared to 64% last week and the peak rating of 75% in June 2020 and the 1988/2019 average of 60%. A model using yield as a function of late August rating results in a calculated yield of 182 bushels Read more…
In the August WAOB report USDA calculated the foreign corn deficit at 57 million tonnes in 2020/21 compared to 51 million tonnes last season.Most of the deficit was attributable to China. China has already purchased about six million tonnes of new crop U.S. corn compared to two.million tonnes in 2019/2020.USDA Read more…
The USDA forecast the season average corn price at farm level in 20/21 at $3.10 compared to $3.60 during the season just concluded. The $3.10 forecast would suggest a season high of $3.68 and season low of $2.63 basis cash corn in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more…
USDA cut the US corn rating to 69% good or excellent from 71% the previous week. As can be observed in the chart ratings have a strong bias to drop in the late summer. The summer storm of 8/10/2020 likely did some damage in Iowa, but the quantity of corn Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the August corn crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 183 bushels per acre which compares to the current record 177 bushels/harvested acre set in 2017. The correlation index for the August corn yield forecast and the final Read more…
Midwest farmers will likely enjoy another record corn yield this season. Our model based on the early August crop rating projects a national average corn yield of 183+ bushels per harvested acre which exceeds the previous record by six bushels per acre.
USDA rated 72% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 27. With more than 80% of the crop past the silking stage and a quarter in the dough stage we consider the 2020 corn crop made. Our model projects a yield of 180+ bushels Read more…
The accompanying scatter study plots the U.S. national average season price for corn as a function of the carryout stocks usage ratio. We have deducted feed usage leaving the more inelastic exports, food, seed and fuels categories. In the July 2020 WAOB report the USDA’s supply usage balance resulted Read more…
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 180 /bushel per acre Corn yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
The value of ethanol and DDGS has made a sharp recovery this summer. Weather will continue to be the dominant force in the corn market for a few more weeks. Cranking up corn processing will put a higher bottom to the corn market than was anticipated last spring.
The USDA rated both the soybean and corn crops over 70% in good or excellent condition as of July 5. Ratings of 65% plus have often been associated with record or near record yields. Hot dry weather could still derail corn yields as just 10% of the crop is through Read more…
We have calculated a revised US wheat balance incorporating the June acreage data and the most recent crop condition reports. Our U.S. wheat carryout in 2021 is slightly larger than USDA’s early June forecast.
USDA cut the corn planted area estimate by three million acres. Farmers are thought to have planted 92 million acres to corn this spring. 2020 plotted in red. We have calculated a 2020/2021 corn supply/usage balance based on the revised data. Note the resulting 2021 carryout is more a Read more…
USDA rated 73% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 65%. Our study projects a yield of 180 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has a standard error Read more…
USDA rated 72% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 mid June average of 66%. Our study projects a yield of 179 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has Read more…
The USDA rated 71% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition in Mid June which compares with 59% a year ago. We have seasonally adjusted the mid June rating to obtain a yield estimate. Our model projects a national corn yield of 179 bushels/acre which is close to Read more…