US farmers responding to the March survey planned to plant 91 million acres of corn in 2021 roughly the same as was actually seeded last year but far less than was suggested by the March 2020 survey. Assuming … … An average harvested to planted ratio of 92%. … And Read more…
The US had sold a record 2.56 billion bushels of corn by mid March with 36% of the total accounted for by China. In the March WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 crop year exports at 2.6 billion bushels. We have scattered crop year exports as a function of mid March Read more…
The USDA estimated the 2021 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushes which would be the smallest ending corn carryout since 2014. We have scattered the spring high for Chicago cash corn as a function of the ratio of corn carryout stocks to crop year food-industrial plus exports. We found Read more…
US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area this spring if weather allows. We estimate the March Prospective Plantings report will find 93 million acres planned for corn production in 2021 compared to the 91 million acres planted in 2020. Based on USDA February 2021 cost and revenue estimates, Read more…
China’s big dive into the international corn market caught many traders and the USDA by surprise. China’s corn production in 2020 was about the same as a year earlier according to USDA data. China’s stock data is questionable but it does suggest a reduction in inventory. China’s decision to increase Read more…
The big corn export sales to China talked about for several weeks showed in this week’s export sales report. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year US corn exports as a function of export sales at the end of January. US corn sales for 2020/2021 delivery totaled 2.2 billion bushels Read more…
US corn feed residual use increased modestly during the first quarter of 2020/21 crop year. By contrast USDA projects a 4% drop in crop year feed and residual disappearance.USDA reasons the recent bull corn market will ration corn supplies thru the last three quarters of the crop year. We have Read more…
Ethanol processors are paying plus $1.36 for corn since harvest. The increased corn value has been derived from an increased $.27 from the value of ethanol, $.56 increased value of distillers dried grains (DDGS), and $.53 from reduced processor margin. DDGS values are correlated with soybean meal prices and the Read more…
The USDA forecast the average crop year farm price for corn of $4.00 per bushel in the November WAOB report. We have scattered the winter/spring summer high and low for Central Illinois Corn as a function of the USDA’s November average prices forecast. The studies have respectable R2 statistics of Read more…
USDA reported 46% of the US winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition on November 15 compared to 52% at the same time a year ago and the past 30 year mid November average of 57%. In most past years in which the winter wheat crop was rated Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the fall – winter high in Chicago soft red wheat as a function of the US wheat carryout as a percentage of crop year food usage + exports. We have marked the WAOB November ratio estimate and the current high for December 2020 futures. Read more…
USDA expects the foreign corn deficit to widen this season as growth in disappearance outpaces production. Foreign consumers will likely fill needs with US corn as foreign stocks have tightened and are no longer an alternative to buying US corn.
The 2020/2021 prospective corn supply/usage balance has transformed from large stocks to the possible need to ration supplies. The change is remarkable for being accomplished without a major summer drought which was the case in most late summer bull markets. The mid summer storm helped but crop damage was mild Read more…
U.S. corn export sales totaled more than 1.3 billion bushels in late October which was a record for the date. We have scattered crop year corn exports as a function of late October sales. The point in red is this year’s sales and USDA’s October crop year forecast. USDA could Read more…
The 2021 winter wheat crop has gotten off to a poor start with 43% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition compared to 67% last year and the 25 year average of 58%.
This month USDA forecast 2020/2021 U.S. feed residual usage at 5775 million bushels compared to 5827 million bushels a year ago. Feed/residual usage is a function of animal numbers, expressed as grain consuming animal units, and the cost of corn as represented by the average price of corn at farm Read more…
USDA cut the new crop (2020/21) U.S. corn carryout this month in line with a small U.S. corn crop estimate. USDA also cut Feed and industrial usage. We have prepared a chart displaying the ratio of the October estimate stocks to crop year usage ratio excluding feed usage. We have Read more…
The accompanying scatter study displays the winter through spring high for soft red wheat in Chicago as a function of U.S. wheat carryout stocks as a % of crop year food use and exports. China, in the past a minor buyer of U.S. wheat has purchased nearly million tonnes of Read more…
The cut in the old crop corn carryout estimate this week has pushed the new crop corn balance further into the volatile range. The accompanying scatters display the highs and lows for central Illinois corn as a function of the U.S. corn carryout as a percentage of crop year food, Read more…
Corn export sales for the 2020/21 season totaled 873 million bushels on September 17 which is well ahead of other years in the past three decades. China has purchased almost 400 million bushels of U.S corn for 2020/21 delivery.