USDA rated 64 % of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on June 27. 2021 compared to the preceding 30-year average of 65%. A late June model forecasts a national corn yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to 172 bushels in 2020. The study has a Read more…
The USDA rated just 27% of the US spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of June 20 which compares to the preceding 25-year avere of 69%. Minneapolis wheat (Spring) has gained sharply on KC wheat reflecting poor spring wheat production prospects versus winter wheat (KC).
USDA rated 68% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on June 13 which is right on the previous 25 year average. Midwest topsoil moisture was rated 65% adequate or surplus which is down from the late spring ratings of recent years. USDA’s current 2021 corn trend Read more…
The rising value of corn ethanol has sustained the corn crush industry at a time of a tight old crop corn supply usage balance. The value of DDGS ( a by-product of the corn crush process used as animal feed) has also moved higher since harvest, but at a much Read more…
USDA rated just 43% of the US spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition on May 30 which compares to the preceding 25-year average for the date of 72% good or excellent. Eighty percent of the crop had emerged on May 30. In the past US spring wheat crops Read more…
The completion of corn planting and the purchase of new crop corn by China has focused attention on the summer season and the potential forces on the 2021/2022 corn season. The WAOB projected the 2021/2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or just 17% of food, industrial usage and Read more…
Kansas City hard red wheat could be expected to trade between $5.00 and $7.00 this summer based on the USDA’s May balance table. But the forecast price range would increase at least .75/bushel assuming a 60 million bushel drop in production from the May estimate, as suggested by the most Read more…
The USDA dropped the winter wheat crop rating to 47% good or excellent on May 23 versus 54% at the same time last year and 48% average over the last 30 Years. A yield model which uses the crop condition index and trend to forecast the June winter yield estimate Read more…
USDA projected the new crop US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 17% of fsi+exports. A ratio of stocks to the least elastic corn demand provides the most accurate index of Midwest corn prices. Our work suggests the USDA’s May new crop corn production estimate is conservative relative to Read more…
Midwest farmers had two thirds of the corn crop planted by May 09 which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 52%. Only Iowa reported more than average dry top soil moisture suggesting the first crop ratings in June will show favorable corn yield potential.
Farmers had seeded 17% of intended corn area as of 4/25/21 compared to the preceding five year average of 20%. New crop corn is not yet the dominant force in the corn market as evidenced by old crop contracts gaining on new crop futures. Inverting spreads are the classic symptom Read more…
The USDA rated 49% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 25. 2021 compared to 53% the previous week and 52% good-excellent average over the previous 33 years. A linear fit between the US winter wheat crop rating and yield results in a forecast Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the first new crop corn supply/usage balance of the 2021/2022 crop year for May 12, 2021. In the accompanying balance table we have assumed US corn area planted at the March Prospective surrey level of 91 million acres and the February Benchmark data for the yield Read more…
USDA forecasts all wheat planted area in 2021 at 47 million acres, up from 44 million acres a year ago. Production will fall short of usage in 2021/2022 assuming … … A trend yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested acre as projected by USDA. … New crop US wheat usage Read more…
US farmers responding to the March survey planned to plant 91 million acres of corn in 2021 roughly the same as was actually seeded last year but far less than was suggested by the March 2020 survey. Assuming … … An average harvested to planted ratio of 92%. … And Read more…
The US had sold a record 2.56 billion bushels of corn by mid March with 36% of the total accounted for by China. In the March WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 crop year exports at 2.6 billion bushels. We have scattered crop year exports as a function of mid March Read more…
The USDA estimated the 2021 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushes which would be the smallest ending corn carryout since 2014. We have scattered the spring high for Chicago cash corn as a function of the ratio of corn carryout stocks to crop year food-industrial plus exports. We found Read more…
US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area this spring if weather allows. We estimate the March Prospective Plantings report will find 93 million acres planned for corn production in 2021 compared to the 91 million acres planted in 2020. Based on USDA February 2021 cost and revenue estimates, Read more…
China’s big dive into the international corn market caught many traders and the USDA by surprise. China’s corn production in 2020 was about the same as a year earlier according to USDA data. China’s stock data is questionable but it does suggest a reduction in inventory. China’s decision to increase Read more…
The big corn export sales to China talked about for several weeks showed in this week’s export sales report. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year US corn exports as a function of export sales at the end of January. US corn sales for 2020/2021 delivery totaled 2.2 billion bushels Read more…