USDA has forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels based on the August yield survey which is 8% of forecast crop year usage. The August S/D forecast is close to the minimum pipeline level based on previous year’s data. Recent experience would suggest a fall Read more…
USDA rated 63% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 8/1/2021 which is the lowest rating of the season but still in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Our model forecasts the national average corn yield at 178 bushels per harvested acre which is not significantly Read more…
This month the USDA estimated this season’s average US corn yield at 179 bushels per harvested acre. The July estimate included in the July WAOB report is based primarily on trend. In August USDA is scheduled (August 12, 2021) to release the first survey based yield estimate. Historically there has Read more…
In the July WAOB report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US wheat carryout at 665 million bushels or 32% of crop year usage.compared to 44% a year ago. We have prepared two scatter studies showing the August/November high and low for soft red wheat as a function of the Read more…
USDA rated 65% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on July 11, 2021 which is exactly equal to the rating in the previous 30 years for the date. USDA put silkinking at 26% which leaves about three quarters of the crop still vulnerable to heat damage. Read more…
US corn consumers are faced with a year plus of very tight supplies. We have produced the accompanying charts to display the prospective corn balance following the June 30 reports. Basse on history the corn trade needs at least 5% of crop year usage as a minimum pipeline supply. The Read more…
USDA rated 64 % of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on June 27. 2021 compared to the preceding 30-year average of 65%. A late June model forecasts a national corn yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to 172 bushels in 2020. The study has a Read more…
The USDA rated just 27% of the US spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of June 20 which compares to the preceding 25-year avere of 69%. Minneapolis wheat (Spring) has gained sharply on KC wheat reflecting poor spring wheat production prospects versus winter wheat (KC).
USDA rated 68% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on June 13 which is right on the previous 25 year average. Midwest topsoil moisture was rated 65% adequate or surplus which is down from the late spring ratings of recent years. USDA’s current 2021 corn trend Read more…
The rising value of corn ethanol has sustained the corn crush industry at a time of a tight old crop corn supply usage balance. The value of DDGS ( a by-product of the corn crush process used as animal feed) has also moved higher since harvest, but at a much Read more…
USDA rated just 43% of the US spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition on May 30 which compares to the preceding 25-year average for the date of 72% good or excellent. Eighty percent of the crop had emerged on May 30. In the past US spring wheat crops Read more…
The completion of corn planting and the purchase of new crop corn by China has focused attention on the summer season and the potential forces on the 2021/2022 corn season. The WAOB projected the 2021/2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or just 17% of food, industrial usage and Read more…
Kansas City hard red wheat could be expected to trade between $5.00 and $7.00 this summer based on the USDA’s May balance table. But the forecast price range would increase at least .75/bushel assuming a 60 million bushel drop in production from the May estimate, as suggested by the most Read more…
The USDA dropped the winter wheat crop rating to 47% good or excellent on May 23 versus 54% at the same time last year and 48% average over the last 30 Years. A yield model which uses the crop condition index and trend to forecast the June winter yield estimate Read more…
USDA projected the new crop US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 17% of fsi+exports. A ratio of stocks to the least elastic corn demand provides the most accurate index of Midwest corn prices. Our work suggests the USDA’s May new crop corn production estimate is conservative relative to Read more…
Midwest farmers had two thirds of the corn crop planted by May 09 which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 52%. Only Iowa reported more than average dry top soil moisture suggesting the first crop ratings in June will show favorable corn yield potential.
Farmers had seeded 17% of intended corn area as of 4/25/21 compared to the preceding five year average of 20%. New crop corn is not yet the dominant force in the corn market as evidenced by old crop contracts gaining on new crop futures. Inverting spreads are the classic symptom Read more…
The USDA rated 49% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 25. 2021 compared to 53% the previous week and 52% good-excellent average over the previous 33 years. A linear fit between the US winter wheat crop rating and yield results in a forecast Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the first new crop corn supply/usage balance of the 2021/2022 crop year for May 12, 2021. In the accompanying balance table we have assumed US corn area planted at the March Prospective surrey level of 91 million acres and the February Benchmark data for the yield Read more…
USDA forecasts all wheat planted area in 2021 at 47 million acres, up from 44 million acres a year ago. Production will fall short of usage in 2021/2022 assuming … … A trend yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested acre as projected by USDA. … New crop US wheat usage Read more…