Grains

US wheat export sales totaled less than 17 million metric tons (tonnes) in mid January 2022, the second lowest total in the last 30 years. In large part scarce sales reflect the limited quantity of US wheat  available for export this season (2021/2022 crop year). Also the large quantity of Read more

In the January WASDE Report the USDA forecast  the 2021/2022 US corn crop year carryout at 1.54 billion bushels based on US crop year corn usage of  14.8 billion bushels. The USDA carryout to crop year ratio would calculate to 10.4 percent. We have scattered the high and low for Read more

US corn export sales (old and new crop) totaled 2.3 billion bushels as of 1/6/2022 which, based on historical experience,  is on course to meet the USDA’s 2021/2022 crop year forecast of 2.4 billion bushels. The historical experience (1991-2021) is illustrated by the accompanying scatter study.   Corn crop problems in Read more

USDA cut the forecast for both the 2022 Argentine and Brazilian corn crops this month. However both forecasts remain very close to trend. The  January estimates appear optimistic in light of the dry weather in the early season, especially in Argentina. 

The USDA had assumed a substantial increase in both Brazilian corn production  and exports this season. Dry weather could significantly change the Brazilian corn outlook and tighten the US corn supply.  We have assumed a 10 million tonne  switch from Brazilian origin to US origin corn and plotted the result Read more

The USDA reported 81% of the US winter wheat crop had emerged by mid November which is close to the historical average. USDA rated 46% of the crop in good or excellent condition as of November 14, 2021 which is below the historical trend line based on the crop years Read more

The USDA rated 45% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 11/07/21 which is well below the recent 25-year average of 57%. The final US  winter wheat yield is only roughly correlated with fall ratings as the winter wheat crop is made by early spring Read more

In the November Wasde report USDA forecast the 2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 10% of 2021/2022 crop year usage. We have scattered the winter high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s winter corn carryout/usage ratio. The current 10% ratio would Read more

USDA increased the new crop  US corn carryout to  1.5 billion bushels this month from 1.4 billion bushels in September. The corn carryout to crop year usage (excluding feed usage) ratio would calculate to 16% based on the October data compared to 15% in September. A 16% ratio would suggest Read more

In the Small Grains report The USDA reduced the 2021 US wheat production estimate to 1646 million bushels from the August estimate of 1697 million bushels. USDA also published the quarterly wheat stocks (September  1) showing a total of 1780 million bushels, the least since the 2007/2008 crop year. We Read more

USDA reported the 2021 (old  crop) US corn carryout at 1236 million bushels compared to the September WAOB estimate of 1187 million bushels. Our end of season US corn yield forecast based on the weekly crop condition survey was 176 bushels per harvested acre which is the same as USDA Read more

In the September WAOB report the USDA  projected the 2021/2022 US corn carryout at 1.4 billion bushels or 10% of crop year usage of 14.8 billion bushels.The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s Autumn  forecast for the Read more

The USDA rated 60% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 8/22/21 compared to the previous 30-year rating of 60% for the same week. The 60% rating suggests a national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s August forecast of 175 Read more

USDA has forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels based on the August yield survey which is 8% of forecast crop year usage. The August S/D forecast is close to the minimum pipeline level based on previous year’s data. Recent experience would suggest a fall Read more

USDA rated 63% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 8/1/2021 which is the lowest rating of the season but still in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Our model forecasts the national average corn yield at 178 bushels per harvested acre which is not significantly Read more

This month the USDA estimated this season’s average US corn yield at 179 bushels per harvested acre. The July estimate included in the July WAOB report is based primarily on trend. In August USDA is scheduled (August 12, 2021) to release the first survey based yield estimate. Historically there has Read more

  In the July WAOB report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US wheat carryout at  665 million bushels or 32% of crop year usage.compared to 44% a year ago. We have prepared two scatter studies showing the August/November high and low for soft red wheat as a function of the Read more

USDA rated 65% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on July 11, 2021 which is exactly equal to the rating in the previous 30 years for the date. USDA put silkinking at 26% which leaves about three quarters of the crop still vulnerable to heat damage. Read more

US corn consumers are faced with a year plus of  very tight supplies. We have produced the accompanying charts to display the prospective corn balance following the June 30 reports. Basse on history the corn trade needs at least 5% of crop year usage as a  minimum pipeline supply. The Read more