This month the USDA forecast corn feed/residual usage at 5.65 billion bushels. The accompanying scatter study displays the historical corn feed per GCAU as a function of farm level corn price. Note that the USDA corn feed/residual estimate is on the high side of historical experience. It is possible the Read more…
A sharp increase in production costs could limit US planted acreage this spring, but does advantage soybeans relative to corn because corn cultivation requires more energy. We have constructed a table displaying major farm input costs in Iowa as of 2/22/2022 compared to prices on 12/06/2018. Note that nitrogen, needed Read more…
The US corn carryout would increase modestly next season (September 2022/August2023) based on the USDA’s latest trendline projections. USDA calculates the normal weather trend corn yield for 2022 at 181 bushels per harvested acre. We calculate the trend corn yield assuming normal weather at 179 bushels per acre. USDA assumes Read more…
USDA’s current wheat projections suggest a modest build up in US wheat carryout stocks over the 2022/2023 crop year. USDA is counting on a return to trend wheat yield after a sub par year in 2021. USDA is also assuming a two million plus increase in planted area. In the Read more…
The US corn balance could tighten through the remainder of the crop year. US corn exports will likely benefit from smaller South American corn crops than USDA assumed last month. The use of corn in ethanol production may also increase. The quantity of corn used as feed is less certain. Read more…
US corn planted area could decline this spring based on the historical response to the soybean/corn price ratio during harvest through the early spring period. We calculate the current ratio at 2.7 which is modestly above the recent thirty year average. A 2.7 ratio would result in a forecast of Read more…
US coarse grain sales in mid January totaled 52 million tonnes down from a year ago , but on the upper side of commitments at the same time in most of the last 30 years. The quantity of corn available from the Southern Hemisphere is still in doubt but the Read more…
US wheat export sales totaled less than 17 million metric tons (tonnes) in mid January 2022, the second lowest total in the last 30 years. In large part scarce sales reflect the limited quantity of US wheat available for export this season (2021/2022 crop year). Also the large quantity of Read more…
In the January WASDE Report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US corn crop year carryout at 1.54 billion bushels based on US crop year corn usage of 14.8 billion bushels. The USDA carryout to crop year ratio would calculate to 10.4 percent. We have scattered the high and low for Read more…
US corn export sales (old and new crop) totaled 2.3 billion bushels as of 1/6/2022 which, based on historical experience, is on course to meet the USDA’s 2021/2022 crop year forecast of 2.4 billion bushels. The historical experience (1991-2021) is illustrated by the accompanying scatter study. Corn crop problems in Read more…
USDA cut the forecast for both the 2022 Argentine and Brazilian corn crops this month. However both forecasts remain very close to trend. The January estimates appear optimistic in light of the dry weather in the early season, especially in Argentina.
The USDA had assumed a substantial increase in both Brazilian corn production and exports this season. Dry weather could significantly change the Brazilian corn outlook and tighten the US corn supply. We have assumed a 10 million tonne switch from Brazilian origin to US origin corn and plotted the result Read more…
The USDA reported 81% of the US winter wheat crop had emerged by mid November which is close to the historical average. USDA rated 46% of the crop in good or excellent condition as of November 14, 2021 which is below the historical trend line based on the crop years Read more…
The USDA rated 45% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 11/07/21 which is well below the recent 25-year average of 57%. The final US winter wheat yield is only roughly correlated with fall ratings as the winter wheat crop is made by early spring Read more…
In the November Wasde report USDA forecast the 2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 10% of 2021/2022 crop year usage. We have scattered the winter high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s winter corn carryout/usage ratio. The current 10% ratio would Read more…
USDA increased the new crop US corn carryout to 1.5 billion bushels this month from 1.4 billion bushels in September. The corn carryout to crop year usage (excluding feed usage) ratio would calculate to 16% based on the October data compared to 15% in September. A 16% ratio would suggest Read more…
In the Small Grains report The USDA reduced the 2021 US wheat production estimate to 1646 million bushels from the August estimate of 1697 million bushels. USDA also published the quarterly wheat stocks (September 1) showing a total of 1780 million bushels, the least since the 2007/2008 crop year. We Read more…
USDA reported the 2021 (old crop) US corn carryout at 1236 million bushels compared to the September WAOB estimate of 1187 million bushels. Our end of season US corn yield forecast based on the weekly crop condition survey was 176 bushels per harvested acre which is the same as USDA Read more…
In the September WAOB report the USDA projected the 2021/2022 US corn carryout at 1.4 billion bushels or 10% of crop year usage of 14.8 billion bushels.The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s Autumn forecast for the Read more…
The USDA rated 60% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 8/22/21 compared to the previous 30-year rating of 60% for the same week. The 60% rating suggests a national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA’s August forecast of 175 Read more…