December hogs are trading low on December corn based on historical data from 1997 through 2021.The current December hog/corn ratio reflects the deep discount for December Hogs compared to deliverable cash hogs. The market will likely correct the discrepancy by boosting hog values. There is also a seasonal tendency for Read more…
The USDA reported 61% of the national corn crop in good or excellent condition on 07/24/2022 which is 3 points less than the previous 30-year average. A regression model using data on trend and the condition index forecasts the national average yield at 177 bushels per harvested acre which is Read more…
This week 71 % of the US spring wheat crop is in good or excellent condition which compares to just 11% in the same week a year ago the 25-year average of 63%. A model based on the mid July rating and trend suggests a national average spring wheat yield Read more…
The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for December corn as a function of the US corn supply minus FSI and exports per GCAU (grain consuming animal units). The data is as expressed by USDA during harvest. The point for 2022/2023, marked in red as 2022, is Read more…
USDA rated 64% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 10, compared to the average 67% rating in the second week of July in the years 1985 through 2021. A rating of 64% is associated with a national average corn yield of 177 bushels Read more…
US new crop wheat carryout stocks aren’t likely to vary much from the just completed crop year. The June Acreage report combined with the crop condition reports of late June suggest a total US wheat crop in 2022 of 1.78 billion bushels compared to the 1.65 billion bushel crop harvested Read more…
The USDA’s June Acreage Survey put 2022 US corn planted area at 89.9 million acres compared to the March survey of 89.4 million and planted area in 2021 of 93.4 million acres. In the June WASDE report USDA projected the national trend corn yield at 177 bushels per acre. Crop Read more…
USDA rated 70% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 6/19/2022 which is modestly above average. Data for the years 1988 through 2021 would suggest a national average yield of 181 bushels per harvested acre which is equal to the forecast published by USDA in Read more…
Historically, December corn summer-harvest values have been correlated with the US corn carryout as forecast by USDA in early harvest. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast the 2022/2023 (new crop) carryout at 1.4 billion bushels, or 15% of crop year usage excluding feed/residual disappearance. December corn is presently trading Read more…
Weekly data suggest only a minor change in the US winter wheat yield forecast this month. In May USDA forecast winter wheat planted area abandonment will be the largest since 2014. Not much of abandonment can actually be recovered, but USDA could have been a little too pessimistic last month. Read more…
September corn is trading about 10 cents per bushel premium to the December contract. Historically, the September/December corn spread has been a function of the US corn carryover. A tight US corn carryout supports the September versus the December corn contract. By the summer of tight years (as in 2022) Read more…
The November – December corn spread is trading close to zero on a one soybean contract to two corn contracts basis which is at the low end of the range established since the year 2000. Historically the soybean to two corn spread during the summer growing and fall harvest season Read more…
December corn is trading near the expected June/December high assuming the May new crop US corn supply/usage forecast balance published by USDA on May 12. We have included a scatter study displaying the June December high for December corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % Read more…
The USDA rated just 30% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 04/17/2022 which is near the bottom of mid April ratings over the last 30+ years of available mid April data. We forecast the 2022 US winter wheat crop at just over 1.2 billion Read more…
The March planted area survey found US farmers planning to cut planted area in favor of other row crops. The corn market has been on a mission to both ration old crop corn supplies and induce farmers to plant more area to corn this spring. We have prepared several charts Read more…
The new crop US wheat carryout could remain near minimum pipeline levels based on currently available data. The poor state of the US winter wheat crop suggests the total US wheat yield in 2022 will fall below trend even if the US spring wheat crop recovers the 2021 drought. The Read more…
US corn supplies will be tight again next crop year unless 1) high prices draw out more acres than indicated in the March survey, 2) the national average corn yield is well above that projected by USDA or 3) bigger foreign crops cut corn export demand for US corn. Higher Read more…
USDA rated just 30% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 4/3/2022 which compares to the 30 year average for that date of 52% of the crop rated in good/excellent condition. The early April index would project an average US winter wheat yield of 48 Read more…
USDA estimates a 700 thousand acre increase in area planted to wheat this year, but area harvested will likely increase by nearly double planted area because a poor season greatly reduced spring wheat area harvested in 2021. We have worked through the data and displayed the trend (except for plantings) Read more…
The USDA’s March survey found US farmers planning the fewest corn area this spring since 2018. The USDA’s trend line US corn area, yield & trend line usage forecasts suggest a modest reduction of already tight US corn stocks during the 2022/2023 crop year.