Grains

USDA’s March planting survey found USS farmers intending to plant 92 million acres to corn this season compared to 89.5 million acres in 2022. We have estimated trend yield at 180 bushels and a trend yield 2023 corn crop at 14.9 billion bushels. The comparative data is displayed in the Read more

US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area in 2023 despite increased production costs. Corn at current old crop prices provide favorable returns to land after deducting variable costs data as provided by USDA. Corn returns also hold an edge to the same calculation for Midwest soybean farmers..      Read more

Bullish Seasonal for July Corn This month the USDA forecast the 2023 US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels or 14% of crop year FSI usage plus crop year exports. July corn has advanced more than declined in 8 of 11 years (since 1971) in which the defined ratio was Read more

Historically, the new crop (this year December 2023) old crop (July 2023) corn spread has been associated with the quantity of corn to be carried into the new crop year. This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels compared to the 1.4 Read more

USDA estimated area seeded to winter wheat last autumn (for harvest this summer) totaled 37 million acres compared to the 33 million acres sown in the fall of 2021. The 2023 winter wheat crop was in poor to fair condition as of mid January  2023. We project next summer’s winter Read more

The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10  per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered the historic (years ending in 2008 through 2022 and the Read more

We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of Read more

Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50  years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the US corn balance is tighter than suggested by USDA. USDA Read more

This month USDA reduced the US corn production estimate by 48 million bushels. The November corn estimate has been less than the October estimate in 17 of 25 years in which USDA reduced the production estimate in October.  The November 2022 crop report is scheduled for release November 9, 2022. Read more

The accompanying table displays a March Chicago wheat forecast range as anchored to March corn. We have adjusted wheat and corn prices to the 2022 price level based on the implicit GNP deflator.  The Tables assume USDA’ s  wheat supply/usage table as published in the October WASDE report . The Read more

The Quarterly grain stocks report estimated September 1 US corn stocks at 1.38 billion bushels, significantly less than the 1.53 billion bushels  estimated in the last WASDE report. The difference implies old crop feed usage was stronger than expected and the USDA’s feed/residual forecast for crop year 2022/2023  is too Read more

This month USDA forecast the new crop US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels or 13% of the estimate of Food Seed Industrial usage  plus crop year US corn exports. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for March corn as a function of the carryout/usage ratio since Read more

The 2022 corn growing season has come to a close with  the crop rated average based on data from the last thirty years. A model using the good-excellent rating for 8/28/2022 suggests a US national average corn yield of 174 bushels/harvested acre compared the USDA’s August estimate of 175.4 bushels. Read more

December hogs are trading low on December corn based on historical data from 1997 through 2021.The current December hog/corn ratio reflects the deep discount for December Hogs compared to deliverable cash hogs. The market will likely correct the discrepancy by boosting hog values. There is also a seasonal tendency for Read more

The USDA reported 61% of the national corn crop in good or excellent condition on 07/24/2022 which is 3 points less than the previous 30-year average. A regression model using data on trend and the condition index forecasts the national average yield at 177 bushels per harvested acre which is Read more

This week 71 % of the US spring wheat crop is in good or excellent condition which compares to just 11% in the same week a year ago the 25-year average of 63%. A model based on the mid July rating and trend suggests a national average spring wheat yield Read more

The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for December corn as a function of the US corn supply minus FSI and exports per GCAU (grain consuming animal units). The data is as expressed by USDA during harvest.  The point for 2022/2023, marked in red as 2022, is Read more

USDA rated 64%  of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 10, compared to the average 67% rating  in the second week of July in the years  1985 through 2021. A rating of 64% is associated with a national average corn yield of 177 bushels Read more

US new crop wheat carryout stocks aren’t likely to vary much from the just completed crop year. The June Acreage report combined with the crop condition reports of late June suggest a total US wheat crop in 2022 of 1.78 billion bushels compared to the 1.65  billion bushel crop harvested Read more