An ethanol price rally associated with higher gasoline prices and seasonal harvest pressure on corn values has pushed corn derived ethanol margins over $3.00 per bushel. Better ethanol processing margins could keep Midwest cash corn bids above $4.00 / bushel. A harvest low under $4.00, basis Midwest corn at farm Read more
We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more
Slack export demand has weighed on US wheat futures prices this summer. In the period 6/1/2023 through 8/10/2023 US wheat export sales totaled just 7 million tonnes compared to the average 10 million tonnes in the same period in the previous ten years. However, USDA data suggest the US wheat Read more
The USDA’s first crop survey of the season resulted in a 2+ bushel reduction in the National corn average yield. In the 1965-2022 period the August yield estimate had a 96% correlation with the final (January) estimate with a standard error of six bushels per harvested acre. USDA reduced the Read more
USDA reported 55% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of the end of July. Based on historical data the USDA’s weekly report suggests an August US average corn yield of 178 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July trendline forecast of 182 bushels. We Read more
US wheat export sales have lagged so far this season as domestic users have outbid exporters for limited US wheat supplies. Foreign wheat consumers have preferred to source wheat from other countries such Canada, Argentina and Australia. Ukraine wheat supplies available for export are uncertain as Russia may blockade Ukrainian Read more
USDA reported 57% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/23/2034 compared to the 37-year average 63% in the same week. History suggests a US national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA July trendline yield forecast of 177.5 bushels per acre. Read more
The USDA reported that 51% of the US corn crop is in good or excellent condition on 7/2/2023, which is below the 30+ year average of 66%. This is also below the 64% that was reported at the same time last year. In June, the USDA projected a national average Read more
USDA published relatively moderate changes to US wheat planted area estimates reflecting the June acreage survey. We have calculated the following wheat production table based on the June survey and the US wheat yield potential based on the weekly crop progress report. US Wheat Planted Read more
The USDA altered the US corn balance outlook for 2023/2024 by reporting a significant upward revision in corn planted area. The estimate of 94 million acres would be the largest area planted to corn in the US since 2013. We have worked through the projected new crop US corn balance Read more
USDA rated just 55% of the US corn crop in good to excellent condition on 6/18/2023 compared to the average mid June rating of 67% in the preceding 36 years. A model using the mid June crop rating to forecast the final US national average corn yield projects a yield Read more
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June 9, 2023, corn supply/usage report, which showed a larger crop and lower prices for the upcoming marketing year. The USDA’s US corn production forecast for 2023/24 maintained the May level of 15.3 billion bushels, up 11% from last year’s crop. The Read more
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a buildup in US corn carryout stocks during the 2023/2024 crop year. The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects that corn carryout stocks will reach 2.2 billion bushels in 2023/2024, up from 1.4 billion bushels in 2022/2023. There Read more
USDA is scheduled to release the first US soybean supply/usage balance of the 2023/24 season May 12, 2023. The accompanying table assumes the March Prospective Plantings report and trendline usage projects published in the Baseline database. Comments on the forecasts include … …USDA’s 2023 US soybean yield forecast appears optimistic. Read more
The US new crop corn carryout will increase modestly assuming currently published USDA forecasts. The March planting intention survey forecast 2023 corn planted area at 92 million acres compared to 89 million acres in 2022. The March area forecast would result in a 15.1 billion bushel US corn crop assuming Read more
The USDA estimated area planted to all wheat will increase significantly this season, but the poor condition of the winter wheat crop signals a tight supply/demand balance during the 2023/2024 crop year. Based on mid April reports we estimate the US wheat crop in 2023 at 1.76 billion bushels. USDA’s Read more
USDA rated just 27% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of 4/09/2023 which is the lowest rating for the comparable week since crop ratings were first published in the mid 1980’s. The rating would suggest a May yield estimate of less than 48 bushels Read more
USDA’s March planting intentions survey data signaled an increase in both winter wheat (planted last fall) , and spring wheat area. But early spring condition reports suggest only a modest year over year increase in US wheat production for the 2023 crop year. March area data and our early spring Read more
USDA’s March planting survey found US farmers intending to plant about the same number of acres to soybeans as was seeded in 2022. The stated number of soybean acres would produce a US soybean crop of 4.4 billion bushels assuming trend yield. Comparative data is included in the accompanying table Read more