Grains

USDA is scheduled to release the first US soybean supply/usage balance of the 2023/24 season May 12, 2023.  The accompanying table assumes the March Prospective Plantings report and trendline usage projects published in the Baseline database. Comments on the forecasts include … …USDA’s 2023 US soybean yield forecast appears optimistic. Read more…

The US new crop corn carryout will increase modestly assuming currently published USDA forecasts. The March planting intention survey forecast 2023 corn planted area at 92 million acres compared to 89 million acres in 2022. The March area forecast would result in a 15.1 billion bushel US corn crop assuming Read more…

The USDA estimated area planted to all wheat will increase significantly this season, but the poor condition of the winter wheat crop signals a tight supply/demand balance during the 2023/2024 crop year. Based on mid April reports we estimate the US wheat crop in 2023 at 1.76 billion bushels. USDA’s  Read more…

USDA rated just 27% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of 4/09/2023 which is the lowest rating for the comparable week since crop ratings were first published in the mid 1980’s. The rating would suggest a May yield estimate of less than 48 bushels Read more…

USDA’s March planting intentions survey data  signaled an increase in  both winter wheat (planted last fall) , and spring wheat area. But early spring condition reports suggest only a modest year over year increase in US wheat production for the 2023 crop year. March area data and our early spring Read more…

USDA’s March planting survey found US farmers intending to plant about the same number of acres to soybeans as was seeded in 2022. The stated number of soybean acres would produce a  US soybean crop of 4.4 billion bushels assuming trend yield. Comparative data is included in the accompanying table Read more…

USDA’s March planting survey found USS farmers intending to plant 92 million acres to corn this season compared to 89.5 million acres in 2022. We have estimated trend yield at 180 bushels and a trend yield 2023 corn crop at 14.9 billion bushels. The comparative data is displayed in the Read more…

US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area in 2023 despite increased production costs. Corn at current old crop prices provide favorable returns to land after deducting variable costs data as provided by USDA. Corn returns also hold an edge to the same calculation for Midwest soybean farmers..      Read more…

Bullish Seasonal for July Corn This month the USDA forecast the 2023 US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels or 14% of crop year FSI usage plus crop year exports. July corn has advanced more than declined in 8 of 11 years (since 1971) in which the defined ratio was Read more…

Historically, the new crop (this year December 2023) old crop (July 2023) corn spread has been associated with the quantity of corn to be carried into the new crop year. This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels compared to the 1.4 Read more…

USDA estimated area seeded to winter wheat last autumn (for harvest this summer) totaled 37 million acres compared to the 33 million acres sown in the fall of 2021. The 2023 winter wheat crop was in poor to fair condition as of mid January  2023. We project next summer’s winter Read more…

The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10  per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered the historic (years ending in 2008 through 2022 and the Read more…

We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of Read more…

Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50  years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the US corn balance is tighter than suggested by USDA. USDA Read more…

This month USDA reduced the US corn production estimate by 48 million bushels. The November corn estimate has been less than the October estimate in 17 of 25 years in which USDA reduced the production estimate in October.  The November 2022 crop report is scheduled for release November 9, 2022. Read more…

The accompanying table displays a March Chicago wheat forecast range as anchored to March corn. We have adjusted wheat and corn prices to the 2022 price level based on the implicit GNP deflator.  The Tables assume USDA’ s  wheat supply/usage table as published in the October WASDE report . The Read more…

The Quarterly grain stocks report estimated September 1 US corn stocks at 1.38 billion bushels, significantly less than the 1.53 billion bushels  estimated in the last WASDE report. The difference implies old crop feed usage was stronger than expected and the USDA’s feed/residual forecast for crop year 2022/2023  is too Read more…

This month USDA forecast the new crop US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels or 13% of the estimate of Food Seed Industrial usage  plus crop year US corn exports. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for March corn as a function of the carryout/usage ratio since Read more…

The 2022 corn growing season has come to a close with  the crop rated average based on data from the last thirty years. A model using the good-excellent rating for 8/28/2022 suggests a US national average corn yield of 174 bushels/harvested acre compared the USDA’s August estimate of 175.4 bushels. Read more…