USDA has scheduled the first WASDE report of the season that will include a prospective US corn supply/usage balance for the 2024/2025 crop year. The only survey backed data in the May report is the planted area estimate taken from the March Prospective Planting Report. The remainder of the 2024/25 Read more…
USDA rated 56% of the US winter wheat in good or excellent on 3/31/24 compared with the previous 35-year average of 49%. The rating would suggest the 2024 US winter wheat yield could be near the trend established in the period from 1988 through 2023. Winter wheat yield lagged trend Read more…
USDA’ March Planting Intentions survey found US wheat farmers planning to reduce planted area this year. The reduction was confined to winter wheat which was seeded last autumn. Spring wheat area may expand modestly, but not enough to make up for the winter wheat decline. We have calculated a US Read more…
US farmers plan to reduce corn planted area in 2024 to 90 million acres from the 94 million acres planted a year ago. The accompanying US corn supply/usage table is based on USDA’s baseline forecasts, published last month, with the March planting survey acreage substituted (91 million acres in the Read more…
Ethanol producers have enjoyed favorable margins this season despite weaker ethanol prices. Cheaper corn has been the key to improved ethanol production profitability Because of the highly subsidized state of ethanol production the quantity of corn used by ethanol plants is relatively inelastic with respect to raw margins. Last month Read more…
The soybean/corn price ratio prevailing since harvest suggests a significant decline in corn planted area this spring. In the October 2023/January 2024 period soybeans averaged 273% of the price of corn (farm level) compared to 215 % during the same period a year earlier. The economic disadvantage results in a Read more…
Corn ethanol processing margins have improved since completion of harvest. A partial recovery in ethanol prices has exceeded declining values of by-products like corn gluten meal. Feed stock (corn) prices have also declined and are the dominant variable force in determining corn ethanol processing profitability. Ethanol demand is highly subsidized Read more…
In the 30 years ending with the 2022/23 corn crop year 80% of the variation in the May corn winter/spring Price range was associated with the US corn carryout stocks to usage ratio and the Livestock price index as published by USDA.. We have constructed the accompanying tables with forecasts Read more…
In the November 2023 WASDE report USDA estimated the US wheat 2023/2024 crop year carryout stock at 684 million bushels, a 100 million bushel increase from a year ago, but still smaller than in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop years. USDA projected US wheat disappearance this season at 1.9 billion Read more…
USDA increased the estimate for 2023/2024 crop year US corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2075 million bushes this month. The US had sold 20 million tonnes of corn for new crop delivery by November 3, 2023 which is near the mid point of recent experience. The accompanying scatter Read more…
USDA increased the estimate of US 2023 corn production by nearly 200 million bushels this month, but also boosted the 2023/2024 crop year usage estimate with the November report estimate for the US corn 2024 carryover stocks estimate less than 50 million bushels larger than the October projection. The US Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have pressured corn ethanol margins, but the margin remains profitable compared to historical levels. The accompanying table displays the late harvest margin calculation for each of the last seven years. The recent drop in gasoline prices and increased seasonal production of ethanol has put pressure on ethanol Read more…
USDA rated 50% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on November 5 which is much better than a year ago and near the midpoint of recent early November ratings. Three fourths of the winter wheat crop had emerged when the November 5 conditions were reported.
Animal feed has dropped from 60%+ of total US corn use in the 1980s to less than 40% in the last decade. Nevertheless, feed use is still the largest single usage category and the most price elastic. The accompanying scatter uses US corn feed usage per Grain consuming animal unit Read more…
Kansas City wheat prices have been under pressure since the mid harvest period last summer. A moderately larger US wheat crop than had been anticipated based on the early summer crop reports and, more importantly, weak export demand for US wheat, have been the dominant bearish forces. The world wheat Read more…
This month USDA published a modestly tighter US carryout estimate for the 2023/24 crop year based on a smaller crop estimate and smaller old crop carrying in stocks. USDA has reduced the US national average corn yield in each of the last four monthly WASDE reports which was only partially Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 US corn carryout at 2.2 billion bushels or 25% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter study shows the low price for March corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The ratio data uses the Read more…
An ethanol price rally associated with higher gasoline prices and seasonal harvest pressure on corn values has pushed corn derived ethanol margins over $3.00 per bushel. Better ethanol processing margins could keep Midwest cash corn bids above $4.00 / bushel. A harvest low under $4.00, basis Midwest corn at farm Read more…
We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more…
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more…