Declining ethanol prices have pressured corn ethanol margins, but the margin remains profitable compared to historical levels. The accompanying table displays the late harvest margin calculation for each of the last seven years. The recent drop in gasoline prices and increased seasonal production of ethanol has put pressure on ethanol Read more…
USDA rated 50% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on November 5 which is much better than a year ago and near the midpoint of recent early November ratings. Three fourths of the winter wheat crop had emerged when the November 5 conditions were reported.
Animal feed has dropped from 60%+ of total US corn use in the 1980s to less than 40% in the last decade. Nevertheless, feed use is still the largest single usage category and the most price elastic. The accompanying scatter uses US corn feed usage per Grain consuming animal unit Read more…
Kansas City wheat prices have been under pressure since the mid harvest period last summer. A moderately larger US wheat crop than had been anticipated based on the early summer crop reports and, more importantly, weak export demand for US wheat, have been the dominant bearish forces. The world wheat Read more…
This month USDA published a modestly tighter US carryout estimate for the 2023/24 crop year based on a smaller crop estimate and smaller old crop carrying in stocks. USDA has reduced the US national average corn yield in each of the last four monthly WASDE reports which was only partially Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 US corn carryout at 2.2 billion bushels or 25% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter study shows the low price for March corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The ratio data uses the Read more…
An ethanol price rally associated with higher gasoline prices and seasonal harvest pressure on corn values has pushed corn derived ethanol margins over $3.00 per bushel. Better ethanol processing margins could keep Midwest cash corn bids above $4.00 / bushel. A harvest low under $4.00, basis Midwest corn at farm Read more…
We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more…
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more…
Slack export demand has weighed on US wheat futures prices this summer. In the period 6/1/2023 through 8/10/2023 US wheat export sales totaled just 7 million tonnes compared to the average 10 million tonnes in the same period in the previous ten years. However, USDA data suggest the US wheat Read more…
The USDA’s first crop survey of the season resulted in a 2+ bushel reduction in the National corn average yield. In the 1965-2022 period the August yield estimate had a 96% correlation with the final (January) estimate with a standard error of six bushels per harvested acre. USDA reduced the Read more…
USDA reported 55% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of the end of July. Based on historical data the USDA’s weekly report suggests an August US average corn yield of 178 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July trendline forecast of 182 bushels. We Read more…
US wheat export sales have lagged so far this season as domestic users have outbid exporters for limited US wheat supplies. Foreign wheat consumers have preferred to source wheat from other countries such Canada, Argentina and Australia. Ukraine wheat supplies available for export are uncertain as Russia may blockade Ukrainian Read more…
USDA reported 57% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/23/2034 compared to the 37-year average 63% in the same week. History suggests a US national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA July trendline yield forecast of 177.5 bushels per acre. Read more…
The USDA reported that 51% of the US corn crop is in good or excellent condition on 7/2/2023, which is below the 30+ year average of 66%. This is also below the 64% that was reported at the same time last year. In June, the USDA projected a national average Read more…
USDA published relatively moderate changes to US wheat planted area estimates reflecting the June acreage survey. We have calculated the following wheat production table based on the June survey and the US wheat yield potential based on the weekly crop progress report. US Wheat Planted Read more…
The USDA altered the US corn balance outlook for 2023/2024 by reporting a significant upward revision in corn planted area. The estimate of 94 million acres would be the largest area planted to corn in the US since 2013. We have worked through the projected new crop US corn balance Read more…
USDA rated just 55% of the US corn crop in good to excellent condition on 6/18/2023 compared to the average mid June rating of 67% in the preceding 36 years. A model using the mid June crop rating to forecast the final US national average corn yield projects a yield Read more…
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June 9, 2023, corn supply/usage report, which showed a larger crop and lower prices for the upcoming marketing year. The USDA’s US corn production forecast for 2023/24 maintained the May level of 15.3 billion bushels, up 11% from last year’s crop. The Read more…
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a buildup in US corn carryout stocks during the 2023/2024 crop year. The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects that corn carryout stocks will reach 2.2 billion bushels in 2023/2024, up from 1.4 billion bushels in 2022/2023. There Read more…