Cash soft red wheat established a row crop harvest low of $5.41 on September 19/ 2024. Historically, soft red wheat has made a low price in the Autumn even in years with burdensome US wheat stocks. We have ranked the study years by the US wheat carryout to crop year Read more
USDA rated just 22% of the US Pasture & Range in good or excellent condition on 10/13/2024 which is the lowest assessment for early October in the last 30 years except for the major drought year of 2012. The US cattle herd is small anyway, but the need to provide Read more
Central Illinois cash corn most often makes a harvest (defined as September through December) low in September or October as would be expected as these are the heavy harvest months. However Later lows in some years have occurred in November or December as the tail end of new crop corn Read more
Declining ethanol prices have tightened profit margins for US corn based ethanol producers. The elasticity of corn demand to ethanol crush margins is greatly reduced by government subsidies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) which mandates the blending of a certain volume of renewable fuels (including corn ethanol) into Read more
Cash corn price in the Midwest has made a harvest (defined as September through December) low prior to or by the first week of October in 66% of years between 1992 and 2023. The current low for cash corn is $3.63 recorded on 9/20/2024.The expected harvest low for Midwest cash Read more
The September 1, 2024 Grain Stocks Report showed US corn stocks (carryover) about 50 million bushels under the USDA’s most recent estimate. This discrepancy will likely be added to the feed residual component for the 2023/2024 crop year and much more importantly raises the prospective feed usage in the 2024/2025 Read more
US wheat farmers enjoyed a banner year with the 2024 national average wheat yield only fractionally under the record set in 2016. The March 2025 Chicago wheat futures contract is currently trading well above the autumn/winter low established by the 2024 March Chicago wheat contract even though the 2024/2025 US Read more
March corn appears to be trading on the high side of the expected harvest – March price range unless USDA tightens the US 2024/2025 corn supply/usage table compared to that published in August 2024. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest/March price range for the March corn futures contract as Read more
The outlook for a buildup in new crop US corn stocks has pressured corn futures prices all summer. We project the harvest price range for December 2024 corn futures at $3.50 to $4.25 assuming USDA’s August 2024 US new crop corn supply/demand balance forecast. Factors to consider when forecasting a Read more
USDA rated 67% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/21/2024 which is in the upper 51% of ratings in the period 1985 through 2023. On the same date 61% of the corn crop had reached the Silk stage, which was ahead of the recent five Read more
The recent “Bear Market” for new crop corn futures contracts has already discounted much of the outlook for surplus US corn supplies during the 2024/2025 crop year. The prospective US US new crop corn carryover stocks projection could increase to 2.5 billion bushels compared to USDA’s June forecast of 2.2 Read more
USDA made a minor upward adjustment to the 2024 US wheat planted area estimate as a result of the June area survey and a more meaningful increase in the 2024 harvested wheat acres forecast. Assuming USDA wheat usage and yield estimates published earlier this month, the 2024/25 crop year carryout Read more
USDA estimates US corn planted area in 2024 at 91.4 million acres, a significant increase from the March survey, but three million acres less than was planted last year. We have derived a revised US corn supply/usage table with the June survey acreage data and holding all other variables at Read more
USDA rated 71% of the spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 6/23/2024 which is in the upper 50 % of the mid June data collected since 1994 Our regression model using historical condition & yield data suggests a US spring wheat yield of nearly 50 bushels per Read more
USDA reported 69% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of 6/23/2024 which is modestly better than the 66% average for the same week since the mid 1980’s.Top Soil in the US Midwest was rated adequate or surplus in 66% of the crop area on Read more
USDA has forecast another increase in US wheat carryout stocks in the 2024/25 crop year. Increased production and just a modest increase in US wheat exports are key variables in the new crop US wheat supply/usage balance. US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) Crop Years 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/2024 2024/2025 Read more
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, released in June 2024, paints a generally positive picture for the U.S. corn industry. Here are some key takeaways: Production: The USDA maintained its forecast for “new crop” corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, with a yield Read more
Export demand for corn and sorghum has been a major force supporting a modest rally in old crop corn futures prices since the late winter. China has been a major swing factor increasing US sorghum purchases at the expense of US corn. Combined US corn and sorghum old crop export Read more
The winter wheat crop condition index has slipped slightly since the May 2024 US winter wheat production estimate was published by USDA, but at 48% good or excellent, remains well ahead of the indices at the time in 2022 and 2023. Our winter wheat crop condition – yield model projects Read more
The USDA’s WASDE report provides a slightly bearish outlook for U.S. wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year. Here are the key takeaways: Larger Supplies: Overall wheat supplies are projected to be up 6% from 2023/24 due to larger beginning stocks and increased production. Production Increase: All wheat production is forecast Read more