USDA has forecast another increase in US wheat carryout stocks in the 2024/25 crop year. Increased production and just a modest increase in US wheat exports are key variables in the new crop US wheat supply/usage balance. US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) Crop Years 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/2024 2024/2025 Read more…
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, released in June 2024, paints a generally positive picture for the U.S. corn industry. Here are some key takeaways: Production: The USDA maintained its forecast for “new crop” corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, with a yield Read more…
Export demand for corn and sorghum has been a major force supporting a modest rally in old crop corn futures prices since the late winter. China has been a major swing factor increasing US sorghum purchases at the expense of US corn. Combined US corn and sorghum old crop export Read more…
The winter wheat crop condition index has slipped slightly since the May 2024 US winter wheat production estimate was published by USDA, but at 48% good or excellent, remains well ahead of the indices at the time in 2022 and 2023. Our winter wheat crop condition – yield model projects Read more…
The USDA’s WASDE report provides a slightly bearish outlook for U.S. wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year. Here are the key takeaways: Larger Supplies: Overall wheat supplies are projected to be up 6% from 2023/24 due to larger beginning stocks and increased production. Production Increase: All wheat production is forecast Read more…
USDA has projected the US corn crop harvested this autumn at 14.87 billion bushels compared to forecasted 2024/25 crop year usage of 14.80 billion bushels. Except for planted US corn acreage, which is based on the March Prospective Planting report, USDA’s projected US corn supply/usage balance 2024/25 table is based on Read more…
Calculated US corn stocks on June 1, 2024 are estimated by Us at 4.8 billion bushels compared to 4.1 billion bushels one year earlier. The ratio of June 1 corn stocks to September 2024 through May 2024 usage is 41% which would be the largest ratio since the 2019/2020 crop Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the first winter wheat production estimate for the 2024 season for May 10, 2024. This week USDA rated the 2024 winter crop at 49% good or excellent compared to ratings in the mid 20 percent range in 2022 and 2023. A model based on the correlation Read more…
USDA has scheduled the first WASDE report of the season that will include a prospective US corn supply/usage balance for the 2024/2025 crop year. The only survey backed data in the May report is the planted area estimate taken from the March Prospective Planting Report. The remainder of the 2024/25 Read more…
USDA rated 56% of the US winter wheat in good or excellent on 3/31/24 compared with the previous 35-year average of 49%. The rating would suggest the 2024 US winter wheat yield could be near the trend established in the period from 1988 through 2023. Winter wheat yield lagged trend Read more…
USDA’ March Planting Intentions survey found US wheat farmers planning to reduce planted area this year. The reduction was confined to winter wheat which was seeded last autumn. Spring wheat area may expand modestly, but not enough to make up for the winter wheat decline. We have calculated a US Read more…
US farmers plan to reduce corn planted area in 2024 to 90 million acres from the 94 million acres planted a year ago. The accompanying US corn supply/usage table is based on USDA’s baseline forecasts, published last month, with the March planting survey acreage substituted (91 million acres in the Read more…
Ethanol producers have enjoyed favorable margins this season despite weaker ethanol prices. Cheaper corn has been the key to improved ethanol production profitability Because of the highly subsidized state of ethanol production the quantity of corn used by ethanol plants is relatively inelastic with respect to raw margins. Last month Read more…
The soybean/corn price ratio prevailing since harvest suggests a significant decline in corn planted area this spring. In the October 2023/January 2024 period soybeans averaged 273% of the price of corn (farm level) compared to 215 % during the same period a year earlier. The economic disadvantage results in a Read more…
Corn ethanol processing margins have improved since completion of harvest. A partial recovery in ethanol prices has exceeded declining values of by-products like corn gluten meal. Feed stock (corn) prices have also declined and are the dominant variable force in determining corn ethanol processing profitability. Ethanol demand is highly subsidized Read more…
In the 30 years ending with the 2022/23 corn crop year 80% of the variation in the May corn winter/spring Price range was associated with the US corn carryout stocks to usage ratio and the Livestock price index as published by USDA.. We have constructed the accompanying tables with forecasts Read more…
In the November 2023 WASDE report USDA estimated the US wheat 2023/2024 crop year carryout stock at 684 million bushels, a 100 million bushel increase from a year ago, but still smaller than in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop years. USDA projected US wheat disappearance this season at 1.9 billion Read more…
USDA increased the estimate for 2023/2024 crop year US corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2075 million bushes this month. The US had sold 20 million tonnes of corn for new crop delivery by November 3, 2023 which is near the mid point of recent experience. The accompanying scatter Read more…
USDA increased the estimate of US 2023 corn production by nearly 200 million bushels this month, but also boosted the 2023/2024 crop year usage estimate with the November report estimate for the US corn 2024 carryover stocks estimate less than 50 million bushels larger than the October projection. The US Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have pressured corn ethanol margins, but the margin remains profitable compared to historical levels. The accompanying table displays the late harvest margin calculation for each of the last seven years. The recent drop in gasoline prices and increased seasonal production of ethanol has put pressure on ethanol Read more…