The March planting intentions survey reported 30. 8 million acres seeded to winter wheat was about the same as found in the winter 2020 survey. Farmers intend to plant 13.9 million acres to spring wheat in 2020 which is down marginally from a year ago. Assuming our trend yield Read more…
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to corn in 2020 at just under 97 million acres which would be slightly short of the record established in 2012. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was 96% in the period from 1965 through 2019 and Read more…
Corn feed use may be moderately stronger than USDA assumed in the March WASDE report. USDA estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAU) will average a two percent increase in 2019/2020 which points to a 300 million bushel plus increase in corn feed usage compared to the USDA’s 95 million bushel Read more…
U.S. corn exports sales for the current quarter totaled 1.2 billion bushels, down from 1.7 billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Spring/summer corn export sales will likely pick up compared to the slow first half pace, but probably not enough to be a dominant price supporting force. Read more…
We use a model that forecasts corn price (Central Illinois) ) based on corn carryout stocks and food, seed and industrial corn usage. The model calculates a spring early price range of $4.03 to $4.42 assuming the March USDA old crop supply/demand estimates. The scatter plot shows May corn trading Read more…
The USDA estimated the combined 2020 Brazil- Argentina corn crop corn crop at 151 million tonnes (5.9 billion bushels) this month which compares to 152 million tonnes (a rounded six billion bushels) a year ago. Combined exports were forecast at 2.7 billion bushels in the current local crop year Read more…
The USDA did not make any changes to the U.S supply/Usage balance estimate this month. The old crop carryout to stocks ratio is estimated at 43% compared to 53% last year. The accompanying scatter study plots the March/June high for Chicago cash wheat as a function of the old crop Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the first corn area estimate of the season based on March intentions on March 31, 2020. We have developed a model which uses harvest to late winter price for Midwest corn and soybeans plus acreage the previous year to forecast the March intentions for Read more…
The corm market has been balanced between reduced supplies and weak export demand. The USDA estimates the U.S. corn carryout this fall at 1.9 billion bushels which is down from a year ago but not tight by historical standards. Foreign corn buyers have chosen to reduce burdensome stocks this season Read more…