U.S. Soybean meal export sales totaled 10.5 million short tons (for 2019/2020 delivery) in early May which was off from 11.4 million tons at the same time year ago. We have scattered crop year exports using Early May sales as a barometer. Note the point in red representing the USDA’s Read more…
The USDA has scheduled release of the May winter wheat estimate for May 12. In an earlier post we forecast the winter wheat crop at 1234 million bushels and we will maintain that estimate as conditions have not changed radically. We did want to present a scatter study which uses Read more…
Ethanol prices and corn processing margins have stabilized in the past week, but ethanol is still trading at a substantial premium to gasoline. Corn used as fuel feed-stock dropped off in March and weekly data reveals the negative trend has accelerated in the last month. Ethanol exports have also Read more…
The wheat (SRW) corn price spread has moved to the upper level of historical experience ignoring the spike that occurred in the 2007/2008 crop year. The drop in corn used as fuel stocks and the prospect of a burdensome new crop corn supply has widened the wheat – corn price Read more…
The value of corn has lost on the value of soybeans this spring. The reduction in demand for corn as fuel stock and the expectation of a surplus in new crop corn supplies has weighed on corn prices. Both in absolute terms and relative to soybeans. Farmers could Read more…
The USDA Rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition in the fourth week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 51%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield since 1988 and a forecast range for 2020 based Read more…
The USDA’s first new crop wheat supply/usage balance, scheduled for release next month, could post a small reduction in US wheat carryout stocks in 2020/2021. Our new crop wheat production forecast is based on the March planting survey and a continuation of the current relatively favorable weather pattern. We have Read more…
USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. corn supply usage balance of the 2020/2021 season in May. The May first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey and the prevailing economic situation in early May. We have constructed a new crop corn Read more…
Midwest farmers got field work underway with slightly wetter than normal soils but much better conditions than a year ago.
The rating for winter wheat declined this week to 57% good or excellent compared to 62% a week ago and also 62% in mid April 2019. Corn planting was reported at 7% complete compared to the five year average of 9%. A wet planting season cut corn area in Read more…
The accompanying scatter study shows the April/June monthly high for corn prices as a function of the ratio of US corn carryout stocks to crop year corn food and industrial plus exports. The data is from the USDA April World supply/usage report. The concept is to use the least elastic Read more…
The USDA Rated 62% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on the 2nd week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 48%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield since 1988 and a forecast range for 2020 based on Read more…
A sharp leftward shift in the corn ethanol demand function pulled the bottom out of the corn market this spring. A collapse in the crude oil market and a reduction in overall fuel demand from stay at home drivers cut the use of ethanol, a prime component of the domestic Read more…
The USDA cut the estimate for corn used to make fuel in 2019/2020 by just under 400 million bushels this month. The ethanol industry has been hit hard this spring because of falling crude oil prices and a reduction in the number of miles driven due to quarantine restrictions. Read more…
The USDA Rated 62% of the U.S. wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 5 which is an improvement over the 52% rated at good/excellent prior to dormancy. In the period 1988 through 2019 USDA rated an average 52% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent Read more…
The March planting intentions survey reported 30. 8 million acres seeded to winter wheat was about the same as found in the winter 2020 survey. Farmers intend to plant 13.9 million acres to spring wheat in 2020 which is down marginally from a year ago. Assuming our trend yield Read more…
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to corn in 2020 at just under 97 million acres which would be slightly short of the record established in 2012. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was 96% in the period from 1965 through 2019 and Read more…
Corn feed use may be moderately stronger than USDA assumed in the March WASDE report. USDA estimates grain consuming animal units (GCAU) will average a two percent increase in 2019/2020 which points to a 300 million bushel plus increase in corn feed usage compared to the USDA’s 95 million bushel Read more…
U.S. corn exports sales for the current quarter totaled 1.2 billion bushels, down from 1.7 billion bushels at the same time a year ago. Spring/summer corn export sales will likely pick up compared to the slow first half pace, but probably not enough to be a dominant price supporting force. Read more…
We use a model that forecasts corn price (Central Illinois) ) based on corn carryout stocks and food, seed and industrial corn usage. The model calculates a spring early price range of $4.03 to $4.42 assuming the March USDA old crop supply/demand estimates. The scatter plot shows May corn trading Read more…