The USDA forecast the season average corn price at farm level in 20/21 at $3.10 compared to $3.60 during the season just concluded. The $3.10 forecast would suggest a season high of $3.68 and season low of $2.63 basis cash corn in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more…
USDA cut the US corn rating to 69% good or excellent from 71% the previous week. As can be observed in the chart ratings have a strong bias to drop in the late summer. The summer storm of 8/10/2020 likely did some damage in Iowa, but the quantity of corn Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the August corn crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 183 bushels per acre which compares to the current record 177 bushels/harvested acre set in 2017. The correlation index for the August corn yield forecast and the final Read more…
Midwest farmers will likely enjoy another record corn yield this season. Our model based on the early August crop rating projects a national average corn yield of 183+ bushels per harvested acre which exceeds the previous record by six bushels per acre.
USDA rated 72% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 27. With more than 80% of the crop past the silking stage and a quarter in the dough stage we consider the 2020 corn crop made. Our model projects a yield of 180+ bushels Read more…
The accompanying scatter study plots the U.S. national average season price for corn as a function of the carryout stocks usage ratio. We have deducted feed usage leaving the more inelastic exports, food, seed and fuels categories. In the July 2020 WAOB report the USDA’s supply usage balance resulted Read more…
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 180 /bushel per acre Corn yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
The value of ethanol and DDGS has made a sharp recovery this summer. Weather will continue to be the dominant force in the corn market for a few more weeks. Cranking up corn processing will put a higher bottom to the corn market than was anticipated last spring.
The USDA rated both the soybean and corn crops over 70% in good or excellent condition as of July 5. Ratings of 65% plus have often been associated with record or near record yields. Hot dry weather could still derail corn yields as just 10% of the crop is through Read more…
We have calculated a revised US wheat balance incorporating the June acreage data and the most recent crop condition reports. Our U.S. wheat carryout in 2021 is slightly larger than USDA’s early June forecast.
USDA cut the corn planted area estimate by three million acres. Farmers are thought to have planted 92 million acres to corn this spring. 2020 plotted in red. We have calculated a 2020/2021 corn supply/usage balance based on the revised data. Note the resulting 2021 carryout is more a Read more…
USDA rated 73% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 65%. Our study projects a yield of 180 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has a standard error Read more…
USDA rated 72% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 mid June average of 66%. Our study projects a yield of 179 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has Read more…
The USDA rated 71% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition in Mid June which compares with 59% a year ago. We have seasonally adjusted the mid June rating to obtain a yield estimate. Our model projects a national corn yield of 179 bushels/acre which is close to Read more…
The USDA projected the new crop U.S. corn carryout at 3.3 billion bushels, roughly unchanged from the May estimate and a mountain compared to previous years. A poor crop year such as 2012 would result in a new crop carry out of less than one billion bushels. But the current Read more…
The USDA rated 77 percent of the corn crop in good or excellent condition which compares to the 25-year early June average of 66%. USDA will likely stick to the May corn crop production estimate which was 16 billion bushels. The June 2020 WAOB estimates are scheduled for release June Read more…
The USDA rated 82 percent of the spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition this week. The rating suggests a crop of 662 million bushels assuming the March 2020 Planting survey data.
USDA rated 54 percent of the winter wheat in good or excellent condition compared to 52 percent last week and the 1988 through 2019 average of 48 percent good excellent. Our wheat model based on late May crop conditions estimates the U.S.winter wheat crop at 1262 million bushels which is Read more…
The USDA has forecast the new crop U.S. wheat carryout at 906 million bushels compared to 978 million bushels this season. The USDA’s wheat production forecast seems fair. The winter crop is close to being made, but the spring crop could still vary sharply from USDA’s assumption. S/D balance as Read more…
The highlight of the WAOB May corn reports was a very large new crop US corn carryout stocks forecast. The March planting survey had farmers increasing corn planted area this season so traders had anticipated a burdensome corn supply outlook in 2020/2021. USDA shuffled old crop corn usage estimates increasing Read more…