Based on the USDA’ recent March Planting Intention survey US wheat production will likely decline this season unless growing conditions prove exceptionally favorable. We project 2025 production at 1.87 billion bushels, a 5% decline from a year ago. We have 2025 projected yield and percent harvested based on the average Read more…
The March 2025 Planting Intention Survey found farmers planning to plant 95.3 million acres to corn this season, a 5% increase from a year ago. In the last 50+ years the June corn acreage estimate has displayed a 96% correlation with the March survey forecast with a standard error of Read more…
March 1 US stocks are estimated at 8.04 billion bushels, down 4% from a year ago. Most of quarterly usage is known from weekly or monthly data. But the March inventory provides an estimate of the feed usage so far this crop year. The 2025 March Grain Stocks report is Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the 2025 March Prospective Plantings report for March 31, 2025. Our economic model suggests a 1% increase in corn area for 2025, a 3% reduction in soybean planted acres and a 2% increase in wheat area. USDA’s baseline forecast suggests a 3% increase in sorghum plantings Read more…
We estimate US wheat stocks on March 1 at 1.2 billion bushels compared to 1.1 billion bushels a year ago. The ratio of stocks to June/February usage (excluding feed residual) was calculated at 83% compared to 87% at the same point a year ago. We have included a scatter study Read more…
We estimate March 1, 2025 US corn stocks were four percent smaller on a year over year basis. The ratio of US March corn stocks to September/May usage dropped to 93% versus 100% in 2024. But stocks are not as tight as the period from 2011 through 2013 which were Read more…
US wheat carryout stocks will likely increase during the 2025/2026 crop year assuming USDA’s National average trend line wheat yield forecast. Through mid February there were winter wheat areas reporting drier than normal conditions, but the acreage affected and the severity don’t yet suggest a yield significantly below the USDA Read more…
USDA did not change the US corn crop, year 2024/25 supply/usage balance this month but did reduce prospective US sorghum exports sharply and added the reduction to domestic sorghum feed usage. The sorghum supply/demand balance is small compared to the corn balance but this month’s sorghum changes were not reflected Read more…
The July 2025 corn futures contract made a harvest low $4.52 and is currently trading just under $5.00 or 10% over the harvest low. In the past 57 years the winter/early spring high has averaged 25% over the harvest low or the equivalent of $5.58. Regressing the July corn high Read more…
This month USDA tightened the US 2024/25 crop year US corn supply/usage outlook by reducing the 2024 corn yield estimate. Historically the December – July (old crop new crop) corn spread has been largely a function of the old crop US corn carryover to old crop corn usage. We have Read more…
Chicago May 2025 wheat is trading at the low end of our projected range. USDA expects the old crop (2024/2025) US wheat carryout to increase 15% compared to a year ago, but the world wheat carryout is estimated to decline about 9 million tonnes or 3%. US Wheat Supply/Usage Balance Read more…
The January USDA survey found US winter wheat planted area for 2025 harvest up 2% year over year. The most recent USDA weekly crop condition report rated the soft red crop near 70% good plus excellent which portends an above trend yield. But conditions in hard red winter states averaged Read more…
The USDA’s January US Corn Supply/Usage was considerably tighter than that published at harvest. The US corn yield was reduced from the November forecast by almost 4 bushels per acre which is the largest in the 2000s.USDA also reduced the corn feed/residual and export estimates for crop year 2024/2025. US Read more…
Cash corn in the Midwest has risen 60+ cents per bushel since early harvest. The accompanying charts display the 50 year price seasonal for Corn Belt cash corn and the application of the seasonal to generate a monthly price forecast for the remainder of the 2024/2025 US corn crop year. Read more…
Corn ethanol crush margins are favorable compared to most recent years except for 2022. Corn crush levels in the first 3 months of the 2024/25 crop year were up modestly from a year ago.The $.70 cent post harvest rally probably won’t slow down ethanol mill activity. However, a rally close Read more…
US wheat usage is projected to increase this season owing to improved export demand and price levels that have encouraged wheat as feed and boosted food usage modestly. The US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio, a key indicator of old crop wheat futures prices, is forecast to increase Read more…
USDA reduced the US 2024/2025. corn carryout stocks projection this month reflecting strong export sales this autumn. So far the sales leap has been accomplished without the participation of China. Significant sales to China would be very positive for corn futures prices, but so far there has been no indication Read more…
Chicago wheat futures prices have been under pressure this autumn due to the outlook for an increase in old crop US wheat carryout stocks. USDA expects a modest decrease in world wheat stocks during the 2024/25 crop year. US Wheat export sales have been the best in four years this Read more…
USDA cut the US corn production estimate this month but made only fractional changes to crop year 2024/25 usage projections. USDA maintained a $4.10 average price at farm level for the 2024/25 crop year. Cash corn was trading just under $4.00 on 11/12/24. A linear model regressing the high and Read more…
US corn export sales for the 2024/25 crop year totaled 1.02 billion bushels on October 24, up 300 million bushels from a year ago and 44% of the USDA’s current crop year forecast of 2.325 billion bushels. In the previous 35 years, late October US corn export sales have averaged Read more…