US wheat usage is projected to increase this season owing to improved export demand and price levels that have encouraged wheat as feed and boosted food usage modestly. The US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio, a key indicator of old crop wheat futures prices, is forecast to increase Read more…
USDA reduced the US 2024/2025. corn carryout stocks projection this month reflecting strong export sales this autumn. So far the sales leap has been accomplished without the participation of China. Significant sales to China would be very positive for corn futures prices, but so far there has been no indication Read more…
Chicago wheat futures prices have been under pressure this autumn due to the outlook for an increase in old crop US wheat carryout stocks. USDA expects a modest decrease in world wheat stocks during the 2024/25 crop year. US Wheat export sales have been the best in four years this Read more…
USDA cut the US corn production estimate this month but made only fractional changes to crop year 2024/25 usage projections. USDA maintained a $4.10 average price at farm level for the 2024/25 crop year. Cash corn was trading just under $4.00 on 11/12/24. A linear model regressing the high and Read more…
US corn export sales for the 2024/25 crop year totaled 1.02 billion bushels on October 24, up 300 million bushels from a year ago and 44% of the USDA’s current crop year forecast of 2.325 billion bushels. In the previous 35 years, late October US corn export sales have averaged Read more…
Cash soft red wheat established a row crop harvest low of $5.41 on September 19/ 2024. Historically, soft red wheat has made a low price in the Autumn even in years with burdensome US wheat stocks. We have ranked the study years by the US wheat carryout to crop year Read more…
USDA rated just 22% of the US Pasture & Range in good or excellent condition on 10/13/2024 which is the lowest assessment for early October in the last 30 years except for the major drought year of 2012. The US cattle herd is small anyway, but the need to provide Read more…
Central Illinois cash corn most often makes a harvest (defined as September through December) low in September or October as would be expected as these are the heavy harvest months. However Later lows in some years have occurred in November or December as the tail end of new crop corn Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have tightened profit margins for US corn based ethanol producers. The elasticity of corn demand to ethanol crush margins is greatly reduced by government subsidies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) which mandates the blending of a certain volume of renewable fuels (including corn ethanol) into Read more…
Cash corn price in the Midwest has made a harvest (defined as September through December) low prior to or by the first week of October in 66% of years between 1992 and 2023. The current low for cash corn is $3.63 recorded on 9/20/2024.The expected harvest low for Midwest cash Read more…
The September 1, 2024 Grain Stocks Report showed US corn stocks (carryover) about 50 million bushels under the USDA’s most recent estimate. This discrepancy will likely be added to the feed residual component for the 2023/2024 crop year and much more importantly raises the prospective feed usage in the 2024/2025 Read more…
US wheat farmers enjoyed a banner year with the 2024 national average wheat yield only fractionally under the record set in 2016. The March 2025 Chicago wheat futures contract is currently trading well above the autumn/winter low established by the 2024 March Chicago wheat contract even though the 2024/2025 US Read more…
March corn appears to be trading on the high side of the expected harvest – March price range unless USDA tightens the US 2024/2025 corn supply/usage table compared to that published in August 2024. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest/March price range for the March corn futures contract as Read more…
The outlook for a buildup in new crop US corn stocks has pressured corn futures prices all summer. We project the harvest price range for December 2024 corn futures at $3.50 to $4.25 assuming USDA’s August 2024 US new crop corn supply/demand balance forecast. Factors to consider when forecasting a Read more…
USDA rated 67% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/21/2024 which is in the upper 51% of ratings in the period 1985 through 2023. On the same date 61% of the corn crop had reached the Silk stage, which was ahead of the recent five Read more…
The recent “Bear Market” for new crop corn futures contracts has already discounted much of the outlook for surplus US corn supplies during the 2024/2025 crop year. The prospective US US new crop corn carryover stocks projection could increase to 2.5 billion bushels compared to USDA’s June forecast of 2.2 Read more…
USDA made a minor upward adjustment to the 2024 US wheat planted area estimate as a result of the June area survey and a more meaningful increase in the 2024 harvested wheat acres forecast. Assuming USDA wheat usage and yield estimates published earlier this month, the 2024/25 crop year carryout Read more…
USDA estimates US corn planted area in 2024 at 91.4 million acres, a significant increase from the March survey, but three million acres less than was planted last year. We have derived a revised US corn supply/usage table with the June survey acreage data and holding all other variables at Read more…
USDA rated 71% of the spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 6/23/2024 which is in the upper 50 % of the mid June data collected since 1994 Our regression model using historical condition & yield data suggests a US spring wheat yield of nearly 50 bushels per Read more…
USDA reported 69% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of 6/23/2024 which is modestly better than the 66% average for the same week since the mid 1980’s.Top Soil in the US Midwest was rated adequate or surplus in 66% of the crop area on Read more…