Cash Soybean Price Forecasts – 11/16/2022
This month USDA projected the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels compared to last year’s carryout November forecast of 205 million bushels and the final estimate for 2021/22 of 256 million bushels. The accompanying table displays high and low price forecasts for central Illinois soybeans based on alternative assumptions for the spring USDA carryout estimate.
The major factor in determining subsequent US soybean carryout projections is the size of the Southern Hemisphere soybean crop and the impact on demand for US soybeans and soybean products. At present USDA forecast the aggregate 2023 South American soybean crop at 5.8 billion bushels versus the 2022 US soybean crop of 4.3 billion bushels. With such a large competing crop in view, it will take considerable South American damage to generate a tighter US soybean carryout.
The major austral soybean season extends from November through early April.
| Illinois Cash Soybeans December-May price range | ||||
| Stocks* | High | Low | ||
| 120 | $17.8 | $13.7 | ||
| 170 | $17.2 | $13.3 | ||
| 220 | $16.6 | USDA Nov. | $12.9 | |
| 270 | $16.0 | $12.5 | ||
| 320 | $15.4 | $12.1 | ||
| 370 | $14.8 | $11.7 | ||
| *US Soybean Carryout as Forecast by USDA in the spring | ||||
Carryout stocks in million bushels.