Cash Corn Timing of a harvest Low
Central Illinois cash corn most often makes a harvest (defined as September through December) low in September or October as would be expected as these are the heavy harvest months. However Later lows in some years have occurred in November or December as the tail end of new crop corn supplies looks for a home.
| Central Ill Cash Corn Timing of of Low | ||||
| Year | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 1992 | $4.26 | |||
| 1993 | $4.86 | |||
| 1994 | $4.56 | |||
| 1995 | $6.60 | |||
| 1996 | $5.54 | |||
| 1997 | $5.63 | |||
| 1998 | $3.93 | |||
| 1999 | $3.91 | |||
| 2000 | $3.44 | $0.00 | ||
| 2001 | $3.86 | |||
| 2002 | $5.74 | |||
| 2003 | $3.96 | |||
| 2004 | $3.20 | |||
| 2005 | $3.08 | |||
| 2006 | $4.06 | |||
| 2007 | $5.03 | |||
| 2008 | $4.91 | |||
| 2009 | $5.85 | |||
| 2010 | $6.79 | |||
| 2011 | $8.47 | |||
| 2012 | $9.72 | |||
| 2013 | $5.39 | |||
| 2014 | $3.15 | |||
| 2015 | $4.79 | |||
| 2016 | $5.06 | |||
| 2017 | $4.44 | |||
| 2018 | $4.64 | |||
| 2019 | $5.79 | |||
| 2020 | $5.67 | |||
| 2021 | $6.54 | |||
| 2022 | $6.69 | |||
| 2023 | $4.87 | |||
| 2024 | $3.59 | |||
| Adjusted to 2024 prices by the livestock price index. Cash corn harvest low to date is $3.59 in October 2024 | ||||
The table above displays the harvest month low with corn prices adjusted to 2024 levels using the livestock price index. Domestic livestock are still the base of corn demand, absorbing excess supplies in surplus years and declining in tight years when fuel, food use and exports crowd out domestic livestock feed use.
USDA currently projects the 2024/25 US corn carryout at two billion bushels, which would be the largest since the 2018/19 crop year. It appears cash corn made new lows on 10/15/2024 at $3.59 which is on the low side of the study when adjusted for the current LPI.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/2024 | |
| 10/11/24 | 10/11/24 | Percent | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 91 | -4% |
| Area Harvested | 85 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 83 | -4% |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 184 | 4% |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 29% |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,341 | 15,203 | -1% |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 28 | 25 | -11% |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,989 | |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,486 | 5,814 | 5,825 | 0% |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,862 | 6,840 | 0% |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,471 | 5,450 | 0% |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,044 | 12,676 | 12,665 | 0% |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,325 | 1% |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,969 | 14,990 | 0% |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,760 | 1,999 | 14% |
| Carryout/Usage* | 9% | 10% | 19% | 22% | |
| Farm Price | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.10 | -10% |
| October 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % FSI + Exports | |||||
A surge in US corn export demand is the most likely factor to tighten the US corn supply usage balance and shift the corn market to the bullish mode.