The USDA reported that 51% of the US corn crop is in good or excellent condition on 7/2/2023, which is below the 30+ year average of 66%. This is also below the 64% that was reported at the same time last year. In June, the USDA projected a national average Read more…
USDA published relatively moderate changes to US wheat planted area estimates reflecting the June acreage survey. We have calculated the following wheat production table based on the June survey and the US wheat yield potential based on the weekly crop progress report. US Wheat Planted Read more…
The USDA altered the US corn balance outlook for 2023/2024 by reporting a significant upward revision in corn planted area. The estimate of 94 million acres would be the largest area planted to corn in the US since 2013. We have worked through the projected new crop US corn balance Read more…
USDA ‘s June area planted survey found soybean planted area at 83.5 million acres compared to the March estimate of 87.5 million acres. The 4 million acre change from March to the June census is the second largest after the 4.5 million acre loss in 2019. Plugging the new data Read more…
The USDA’s June 1,2023 survey found US market hog supplies up less than 1% year over year. Barring a major data error market hog slaughter during the second half of 2023 will be about equal to that of 2022. A hogs process forecast model based on original market hog data Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed June 1. 2023, down three percent from a year ago. Both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings increased in May 2023 compared to a year ago. Fed cattle account for about 60% of US cattle total slaughter. We have calculated estimates Read more…
Dry weather in the Midwest and Delta has jumped started the soybean futures market. The mid June US soybean crop rating from USDA was 54% good or excellent compared to the preceding 30-year average of 65% in the comparable week. Based on experience in the past a rating exceeding at Read more…
USDA rated just 55% of the US corn crop in good to excellent condition on 6/18/2023 compared to the average mid June rating of 67% in the preceding 36 years. A model using the mid June crop rating to forecast the final US national average corn yield projects a yield Read more…
We estimate the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 96 million head, compared to 99 million head a year ago and the second smallest mid-calendar year count since data was first collected in 1973. The July USDA Cattle Report is scheduled for release July 21, 2023. Read more…
Dry weather in parts of the Corn Belt and Delta has soybeans rated less than average by the USDA. In the week ending 6/11/23 USDA crop observers rated 59% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition compared to the June average of 62% in the years Read more…
The 2023-2024 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak phase . However, the US National Weather Service has published an update suggesting there is a 60% chance of El Niño developing by the end of the year. If El Niño does develop, it is likely to be Read more…
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June 9, 2023, corn supply/usage report, which showed a larger crop and lower prices for the upcoming marketing year. The USDA’s US corn production forecast for 2023/24 maintained the May level of 15.3 billion bushels, up 11% from last year’s crop. The Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory totaled 71.5 million head on June 1 compared to the year over year comparison of 72.3 million head. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck to the one percent cut in March/May sows farrowing intentions expressed in the March 2023 survey. The June Hogs & Pigs Read more…
US feedlot feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both dropped sharply last month. Expensive feeder cattle replacements and high feed costs drove down placements and marketings last month. We project finished cattle marketings will decline 5% this summer and autumn. August live cattle are trading well below the cash Read more…
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its prospective soybean supply/usage balance for the 2023/2024 marketing year. The balance shows that the United States is expected to produce a record soybean crop of 4.5 billion bushels. This is up 200+ million bushels from the previous year and would Read more…
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a buildup in US corn carryout stocks during the 2023/2024 crop year. The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects that corn carryout stocks will reach 2.2 billion bushels in 2023/2024, up from 1.4 billion bushels in 2022/2023. There Read more…
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast a drop in the 2024 beef supply. The USDA’s forecast is based on a shrinking cattle herd. The US cattle herd has been declining for several years, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024. This is due to a number Read more…
USDA estimates old crop US soybean exports at 2.015 billion bushels. Recent soybean sales data suggest the USDA estimate may be optimistic. The accompanying chart and scatter study display indicates soybean sales are well behind previous years and the sales pace needed to make USDA’s current 2022/2023 export forecast. A Read more…
US finished cattle sales declined last month as did net feeder cattle placements. US cattle on feed April 1 were down 4% from the previous year. We have summarized and displayed our forecast for annual US cattle slaughter, beef production and finished cattle cash and futures prices in the accompanying Read more…
USDA is scheduled to release the first US soybean supply/usage balance of the 2023/24 season May 12, 2023. The accompanying table assumes the March Prospective Plantings report and trendline usage projects published in the Baseline database. Comments on the forecasts include … …USDA’s 2023 US soybean yield forecast appears optimistic. Read more…