USDA increased the estimate of US 2023 corn production by nearly 200 million bushels this month, but also boosted the 2023/2024 crop year usage estimate with the November report estimate for the US corn 2024 carryover stocks estimate less than 50 million bushels larger than the October projection. The US Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have pressured corn ethanol margins, but the margin remains profitable compared to historical levels. The accompanying table displays the late harvest margin calculation for each of the last seven years. The recent drop in gasoline prices and increased seasonal production of ethanol has put pressure on ethanol Read more…
USDA rated 50% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on November 5 which is much better than a year ago and near the midpoint of recent early November ratings. Three fourths of the winter wheat crop had emerged when the November 5 conditions were reported.
In the October 2023 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage which is close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter high and low for March soybeans as a function of the Read more…
Animal feed has dropped from 60%+ of total US corn use in the 1980s to less than 40% in the last decade. Nevertheless, feed use is still the largest single usage category and the most price elastic. The accompanying scatter uses US corn feed usage per Grain consuming animal unit Read more…
Feedlots reduced year over year sales of finished cattle last month but increased feeder cattle placements compared to activity in September 2023. Feedlots have reduced year over year marketings as increasing finishing schedules was cheaper than buying expensive feeder cattle. USDA has increased the US beef production 2023 estimate by Read more…
Kansas City wheat prices have been under pressure since the mid harvest period last summer. A moderately larger US wheat crop than had been anticipated based on the early summer crop reports and, more importantly, weak export demand for US wheat, have been the dominant bearish forces. The world wheat Read more…
This month USDA published a modestly tighter US carryout estimate for the 2023/24 crop year based on a smaller crop estimate and smaller old crop carrying in stocks. USDA has reduced the US national average corn yield in each of the last four monthly WASDE reports which was only partially Read more…
The USDA tightened the US soybean usage balance estimate modestly this month by reducing the soybean production estimate based on the October survey.We have reproduced the USDA’s October WASDE report and included scatter studies with the winter high and low for deliverable soybeans as a function of the US soybean Read more…
In the past 50 years cash feeder cattle prices have displayed a bearish bias from early October into the early spring period. Feedlot replacement demand slackens after the fall surge in incoming feeder cattle and the need to push feeder supplies off winter pasture account for the seasonal weakness. Read more…
USDA put the September 1 market hog inventory at 68 million head which is just fractionally larger than a year earlier. A regression study with October/March commercial hog slaughter as a function of original hog inventory data plus net live hog imports, suggests commercial hog slaughter over the next six Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 US corn carryout at 2.2 billion bushels or 25% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter study shows the low price for March corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The ratio data uses the Read more…
US soybean export sales for 2023/2024 delivery are on the low side of recent history. Soybean importers are likely anticipating a large Southern Hemisphere soybean crop to fill February through August 2024 needs. The current strong El Nino reduces the risk of drought damaging the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop which Read more…
USDA expects a significant cut in US pork supply during the first quarter of 2024. We have correlated the February lean hog price range with January March per capita pork supply over the last 30+ years. Plugging in the USDA’s pork supply forecast would suggest an autumn winter price range Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 crop year US soybean carryover at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage. Historically the harvest low price for November soybeans has been correlated with the new crop carryover to usage ratio. The USDA’s current US soybean S/D would suggest a low Read more…
An ethanol price rally associated with higher gasoline prices and seasonal harvest pressure on corn values has pushed corn derived ethanol margins over $3.00 per bushel. Better ethanol processing margins could keep Midwest cash corn bids above $4.00 / bushel. A harvest low under $4.00, basis Midwest corn at farm Read more…
The number of cattle on feed likely declined last month. The high cost of feeder cattle replacements was the principal factor limiting cattle on feed activity. The need to hold back heifers to increase the cattle herd will likely keep both feeder cattle and finished cattle supplies tight through at Read more…
We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more…
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more…
We estimate the September 1 US hog inventory at 72.8 million head, down 2% from the census at the same time last year. Our estimate assumes the USDA’s summer sows farrowing projection published in June 2023 and a trend projection for the number of pigs saved per litter. Read more…